Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[jaxfladude]

Now over 900 posts on this topic, really?
Did we get pranked?

[SFLcane]

[ElectricStorm]

Just about time for the happy hour GFS... let's see how happy it's feeling today...

[aspen]

Just about time for the happy hour GFS... let's see how happy it's feeling today...

Still a weak precursor through 78 hours.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS dropped it entirely.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm starting to think that we've been getting punk'd folks. Even Wxman was onboard for development. Not sure what went haywire, but something is amiss.

[ElectricStorm]

We are now to the point where pretty much every storm has been this season... The point where the storm does not have much model support... Which means I still think we get something out of this, even if it is a weak/short lived TD or TS... Can't forget the fact that the models whiffed on a Cat 4 in this area just a few weeks ago

[wxman57]

Looking like this was a GFS phantom storm. There will be lower pressure in the western Caribbean this week. May get a low forming along the cold front, but a hurricane isn't looking likely.

[kevin]

Probably against my better judgement, but I refuse to already call this one 100% dead already. There was such a strong signal, even wxman was on board. And now after 40 pages it is a bust. Don't get me wrong if it's true I'm very happy for the residents of Cuba, Florida and the entire region, but I really expected something to form based on the models and the general setting. I guess I need another day of models not showing development before I can accept this being a phantom.

[SFLcane]

.

[aspen]

Again, what on Earth is keeping this from developing? Is it a little too much dry air? Everything seemed perfect for development right until 36-48 hours before the low was supposed to emerge into the Caribbean (which is still is expected to but isn’t forecast to develop).

[SFLcane]

Looking like this was a GFS phantom storm. There will be lower pressure in the western Caribbean this week. May get a low forming along the cold front, but a hurricane isn't looking likely.

Wxman57 what do you think of the cmc, icon, para and Ukmet to some extent still showing development?

[Jr0d]

Given how poor the models have been sniffing out genesis, one can make the argument a storm is more likely now given the lack of model support today.

If nothing develops, it will have to be a Storm2k record for a phantom storm!

[cycloneye]

8 PM: Change from middle to now late this week.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this
system is possible late this week while it moves slowly
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[plasticup]

There's only 13 days left in CONUS season anyway, unless you believe a once in a centuryish November landfall is possible.

Not sure why anyone would use the long-term climatological data when it clearly no longer applies.

??? why does it no longer apply? Cane landfalls are exceedingly rare stateside in November. I wouldn't be shocked if we have some late season action in the southwest caribbean but it would be remarkably rare to have a true hurricane risk in the US in November. That's the whole issue with the models pushing development back. we're just running out of time now..

The climate has warmed 1 degree C in the last century.

[aspen]

Given how poor the models have been sniffing out genesis, one can make the argument a storm is more likely now given the lack of model support today.

If nothing develops, it will have to be a Storm2k record for a phantom storm!

This has already well surpassed pre-Teddy’s thread. Once those Hurricane Maria 2.0 runs came out, we went nuts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure why anyone would use the long-term climatological data when it clearly no longer applies.

??? why does it no longer apply? Cane landfalls are exceedingly rare stateside in November. I wouldn't be shocked if we have some late season action in the southwest caribbean but it would be remarkably rare to have a true hurricane risk in the US in November. That's the whole issue with the models pushing development back. we're just running out of time now..

The climate has warmed 1 degree C in the last century.

I don’t think that means it no longer applies. It’s not like climatology means you just take the 1950 average and conclude every season will behave that way. It’s a moving average, and since November US hurricane landfalls didn’t occur even in exceedingly active years like 2005, it’s still a rare occurrence.

Regardless, glad I’ve been too busy lately to get too involved in this thread. Looks like it’s been a real headache

[underthwx]

"The strong high to the north will move away, and the atmospheric pattern over the southern Caribbean will become supportive of an organized low-pressure system"....Bryan Norcross quote

[Jr0d]

Given how poor the models have been sniffing out genesis, one can make the argument a storm is more likely now given the lack of model support today.

If nothing develops, it will have to be a Storm2k record for a phantom storm!

This has already well surpassed pre-Teddy’s thread. Once those Hurricane Maria 2.0 runs came out, we went nuts.

At least those ended up developing into something. This one has an 80% chance of being nothing per the NHC, so this would be the biggest thread for a phantom storm.by a long shot.

That said, looking at the ensembles, there is still a readonable chance of something forming.

With 94L underperforming so far, it might mean this area will eventually get there. The model trend has been showing a stronger 94L equating to a weaker SW Carib signature and vice versa.

Way too many varibles. 20 years ago there would never have even been a discussion about potential development here.

[aspen]

18z GFS-Para is basically the same as the 12z.