Texas Fall 2020

[Ntxw]

I'm going to play role of contrarian here, I think typical La Nina norms is good with a slight tilt to -EPO this season early. A colder October (ancient historical perspective ) is more of a Nino thing anyway. November and December I think will skew to the early winter ideas of usual -ENSO. We also have a mod to strong event in the works so its dominance should be felt even more than any La Nina since 2010-2011.

The dryness however will likely continue. Expecting 2021 to be a drought year.

[Ntxw]

First fantasy land wintry threat for DFW on the 0z gfs

https://i.ibb.co/pJXFXG3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-42.png

https://i.ibb.co/K9XtTwc/gfs-asnow-scus-46.png

Even the Euro has snow into parts of Texas and Oklahoma late in its run. If the EPO forecast can hold then some kind of strong front may try to blast through before Halloween.

[Brent]

First fantasy land wintry threat for DFW on the 0z gfs

https://i.ibb.co/pJXFXG3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-42.png

https://i.ibb.co/K9XtTwc/gfs-asnow-scus-46.png

Even the Euro has snow into parts of Texas and Oklahoma late in its run. If the EPO forecast can hold then some kind of strong front may try to blast through before Halloween.

Our first fantasy cold rain

But hey we need rain too

[Brent]

No frozen precip on the Euro but it feels like winter at the end of the run

This would be highs in the mid 40s at best

Definitely seeing some sort of agreement on the biggest front of the season around next Monday



in the shorter term... still could be a pretty sizable front this Monday too, the NAM is in the 60s all day Monday

The main concern over the next 48 hours will be the temperature
forecast for Monday given the shallow nature of the colder air.
The usually reliable high-res guidance is some 20 degrees colder
for highs than the GFS/ECMWF across a good portion of North Texas.
In addition, shallow low level moisture and weak but persistent
isentropic ascent could lead to areas of drizzle or light rain
across parts of the area, particularly our northwest counties.
Since shallow colder air is handled much better by the high-res
guidance, we`ll trend high temperatures down several degrees for
Monday, undercutting the GFS/EC/Blended guidance by 10 degrees or
so for now. We won`t go quite as cold as the NAM/TTU-WRF given
that really shallow colder air/moisture can be mixed/eroded by
stronger southwest flow aloft, which will develop by Monday
afternoon across North Texas. We`ll hold highs in the lower 60s
across the northwest with lower 80s in our southeast. Further
adjustments to the high temp forecast will likely be needed over
the next 24 hours.

[TropicalTundra]

If only some rain would come by..

[HockeyTx82]

Found these just now, perhaps it's been posted before?

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/d32data#:~: ... %20rows%20

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow

[Cerlin]

12z GFS keeps a winter wonderland for DFW

[Cerlin]

12z GFS keeps a winter wonderland for DFW

https://imgur.com/gallery/9F9hikw

think I formatted this whole image thing wrong...anyone know how to make imgur images work on here?

[TropicalTundra]

12z GFS keeps a winter wonderland for DFW

https://imgur.com/gallery/9F9hikw

think I formatted this whole image thing wrong...anyone know how to make imgur images work on here?

You’re using [url], you’re supposed to use [img]

For example:



You also need to copy the post link, not just the link itself I think

[Brent]

12z GFS keeps a winter wonderland for DFW

https://imgur.com/gallery/9F9hikw

Like this

[Cerlin]

12z GFS keeps a winter wonderland for DFW

https://imgur.com/gallery/9F9hikw

Like this

https://i.ibb.co/2qk2JFh/gfs-asnow-scus-39.png

yes

[TropicalTundra]

We need to hope that it gets cold fast, otherwise this snow system won’t work.

[Brent]

Not sure what the GFS is smoking but okay

Dallas has never measured snow in October there were a couple traces in the 90s

[HockeyTx82]

Not sure what the GFS is smoking but okay

Dallas has never measured snow in October there were a couple traces in the 90s
https://i.ibb.co/7gzgNcW/7-C3-B165-B-13-F6-408-C-B1-E1-DA1-BF05812-E0.png

If this holds and that's a big if, better not be it for the fall and winter........

[Brent]

Not sure what the GFS is smoking but okay

Dallas has never measured snow in October there were a couple traces in the 90s
https://i.ibb.co/7gzgNcW/7-C3-B165-B-13-F6-408-C-B1-E1-DA1-BF05812-E0.png

If this holds and that's a big if, better not be it for the fall and winter........

That's my first thought too tbh

well the 0z gfs went back to reality with just some rain(hey we need rain )

[HockeyTx82]

Not sure what the GFS is smoking but okay

Dallas has never measured snow in October there were a couple traces in the 90s
https://i.ibb.co/7gzgNcW/7-C3-B165-B-13-F6-408-C-B1-E1-DA1-BF05812-E0.png

If this holds and that's a big if, better not be it for the fall and winter........

That's my first thought too tbh

well the 0z gfs went back to reality with just some rain(hey we need rain )

2020 being what it is and has been I would not sleep on a possible record snow for DFW. I mean why not........

[Ntxw]

For as warm as it may have seem in October, for DFW it has only been +1F and that will be cut sharply by the time the big front comes through. We may actually end up near normal if not slightly below.

As for models, I'm still expecting a cold rain in October but well below average. First widespread 30s lows for areas north of I-10.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS has been teasing snow next week off and on for a bit now. Halloween wintery precip is not unheard of so not 100% discounting it but def won't buy it until within 72 hours.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What an awesome Fall day. We haven’t gotten out of the mid 50s yet.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS casually dropping about 5-6 inches on DFW.