Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[ClarCari]

Wasn’t the MJO event and the biggest chance for development not for another week or week and 1/2??
I feel like everyone including the NHC got duped by a bunch of model runs when the atmosphere isn’t supporting much convection until a bit later .

I’d bet ALOT more that we will see a rather impressive burst of activity when the conditions become right again rather than watching nothingness during a suppressive phase.

[skyline385]

Not sure if funny trolling or serious.

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

I think it's because a lot of Florida posters are only focused on threats to Florida. The season usually ends for Florida several weeks prior to the official end of the season.

Isnt it a well known fact that October is the climatological peak for landfall in Florida?

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the dreaded modelstorm got us fooled again

[toad strangler]

This thread is great. My early gut instinct was a non event miss to the right but now it might be a steaming heap of nothing. We'll see. Season cancel has entered the chat. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary...it will be here for the duration..

There's only 13 days left in CONUS season anyway, unless you believe a once in a centuryish November landfall is possible.

[TheStormExpert]

This thread is great. My early gut instinct was a non event miss to the right but now it might be a steaming heap of nothing. We'll see. Season cancel has entered the chat. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary...it will be here for the duration..

There's only 13 days left in CONUS season anyway, unless you believe a once in a centuryish November landfall is possible.

Well it’s 2020 so anything is possible I guess.

[toad strangler]

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

I think it's because a lot of Florida posters are only focused on threats to Florida. The season usually ends for Florida several weeks prior to the official end of the season.

It’s odd how many threats there have been to Bermuda compared to Florida in the past six seasons. For such a small island in a big ocean this is impressive.

I don't think it's odd, Bermuda is right in a sweet spot for re-curving storms. Landfalls on Bermuda itself would be a different story.

[aspen]

GFS-Para is back to showing development. Looks like land interaction with Cuba helps tighten the disturbance.

[plasticup]

This thread is great. My early gut instinct was a non event miss to the right but now it might be a steaming heap of nothing. We'll see. Season cancel has entered the chat. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary...it will be here for the duration..

There's only 13 days left in CONUS season anyway, unless you believe a once in a centuryish November landfall is possible.

Not sure why anyone would use the long-term climatological data when it clearly no longer applies.

[jlauderdal]

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

I think it's because a lot of Florida posters are only focused on threats to Florida. The season usually ends for Florida several weeks prior to the official end of the season.

Isnt it a well known fact that October is the climatological peak for landfall in Florida?

Yes, maybe one more shot but this season at least for the united states is on life support

[LarryWx]

Since 1995, there have been 17 TCs that formed in November. Three formed in 2005, alone. Ida in 2009 actually hit the US though in much weakened form.

So, after 94L and the W Car for this week, it is impossible to know that the season is over.

[toad strangler]

Since 1995, there have been 17 TCs that formed in November. Three formed in 2005, alone. Ida in 2009 actually hit the US though in much weakened form.

So, after 94L and the W Car for this week, it is impossible to know that the season is over.

I was talking landfalls. Just to be clear. I fully expect November action this season but the clock is ticking for the CONUS (thankfully). This is a time I use climo when talking about November. Two CONUS November hurricane landfalls in 168 years is tough to ignore. Of those two NONE was from the Caribbean.

[psyclone]

This thread is great. My early gut instinct was a non event miss to the right but now it might be a steaming heap of nothing. We'll see. Season cancel has entered the chat. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary...it will be here for the duration..

There's only 13 days left in CONUS season anyway, unless you believe a once in a centuryish November landfall is possible.

Not sure why anyone would use the long-term climatological data when it clearly no longer applies.

??? why does it no longer apply? Cane landfalls are exceedingly rare stateside in November. I wouldn't be shocked if we have some late season action in the southwest caribbean but it would be remarkably rare to have a true hurricane risk in the US in November. That's the whole issue with the models pushing development back. we're just running out of time now..

[FireRat]

So we went from the models having a difficult time foreseeing genesis of many past storms/hurricanes this season to now having the most solid signal of the season, turn out to be a phantom, Wow!
What cruel irony it will be for the models to have failed yet again with genesis, miserably, but this time with a modelstorm. Just sad guys, damn. I hope that next season the models get recalibrated, so they can be more than just entertainment.

Of course, this can all change and we do get a storm in the Caribbean that strikes Cuba or FL around 10/25, but the trend is definitely in the other direction... NADA.
Even now I myself can't help being bearish.

I'll go ahead and just predict that a weak TS will form in the Caribbean around 10/24, and then it dies off, just for the sake of the GFS and other models.

[LarryWx]

Since 1995, there have been 17 TCs that formed in November. Three formed in 2005, alone. Ida in 2009 actually hit the US though in much weakened form.

So, after 94L and the W Car for this week, it is impossible to know that the season is over.

I was talking landfalls. Just to be clear. I fully expect November action this season but the clock is ticking for the CONUS (thankfully). This is a time I use climo when talking about November. Two CONUS November hurricane landfalls in 168 years is tough to ignore. Of those two NONE was from the Caribbean.

Point well taken.

Here's another stat: Since 1995, 7 of 11 La Nina Novembers had a genesis and one of those, 2005, had 3. Fortunately, none of those 11 La Nina Novembers since 1995 had a CONUS landfall. However, 2016 had a major H, Otto, hit Nicaragua. 2008's Paloma became a cat 4 and hit Cuba as a cat 2. 2005's TS Gamma caused major and deadly flooding from rainfall in Honduras. 1999's wrong way Lenny became a 933 mb cat 4 that caused major destruction in PR/Virgin Islands/Leeward Islands and killed 17. So, 4 of the last 11 La Nina Novembers had a storm with major land impact. All 3 that had a MH had major land impacts.

[TheStormExpert]

Now watch the 18z “Happy Hour” GFS completely jump back onboard.

[aspen]

GFS-Para says welcome back to Zeta, and just for fun, it has a MDR system hitting the Leaser Antilles by 300 hours. The 12z run’s solution for Zeta is like yesterday’s: the disturbance is trackable but not very strong in the Caribbean, but it gets blocked in the Bahamas and gets stronger.

[SFLcane]

Para develops this and brings it into SFL as a moderate TS.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 12z run of the Para is what I have envisioned for this system all along. A reverse S out of the Caribbean.

[Jr0d]

Para, CMC, and ICON still show something. There is finally some very disorganized thunderstorms in the Caribbean so maybe it is the start of something.

It is ironic that the models struggled with genesis all season long, gave us one of the strongest signals all year and it may turn out to be a phantom.

I am not declaring it dead until the ICON and more importantly the NHC drop it.

[ElectricStorm]

Para, CMC, and ICON still show something. There is finally some very disorganized thunderstorms in the Caribbean so maybe it is the start of something.

It is ironic that the models struggled with genesis all season long, gave us one of the strongest signals all year and it may turn out to be a phantom.

I am not declaring it dead until the ICON and more importantly the NHC drop it.

Yeah same here... Based on how favorable the Western Caribbean has been this year, I still think something spins up out of this