2020 WPAC Season

[ElectricStorm]

Yikes. 06z GFS not one but two 940's mb typhoon. The aforementioned Luzon system and another approaching the Marianas first few days of November.

A lot of untapped potential out there for anything that can take advantage of it

[euro6208]

Pretty good agreement.

[euro6208]

GFS operational runs have been all over the place.

12z was almost similar to the 06z run now 18z drops the Luzon system and focuses more on the Marianas system developing it on Halloween and impacting Guam as a 960 mb typhoon and peaking in the 940's.

[euro6208]

A battle going on in the atmosphere.

Showery weather may return as early as late
Thursday as another westward moving disturbance approaches. GFS and
ECMWF then diverge in the overall pattern for the weekend. ECMWF
depicts a monsoon trough stretching east of the Marianas while GFS
keeps more of a "tradey" pattern with westward-moving disturbances.
It appears to be a battle between October climatology favoring a
monsoon trough (ECMWF) versus the GFS and its depiction of a robust
La Nina pattern with expansive trade flow. Perhaps the ECMWF has the
right idea but is a touch early on its development of the monsoon
trough. In any event, the next two to three weeks may very well be
the last hurrah before steady "dry-season" trade flow attempts to
anchor itself across the latitude/longitude of the Marianas.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS operational runs have been all over the place.

12z was almost similar to the 06z run now 18z drops the Luzon system and focuses more on the Marianas system developing it on Halloween and impacting Guam as a 960 mb typhoon and peaking in the 940's.

0z landfalls 96w in Luzon as a TS, then gets it to mid 980s mb in the SCS

[ElectricStorm]

Low rider barreling towards the Philippines on 0z long-range GFS Hits Luzon at 946mb... Thankfully it's in fantasy range.

[euro6208]

Low rider barreling towards the Philippines on 0z long-range GFS Hits Luzon at 946mb... Thankfully it's in fantasy range.

Just when EURO starts to show it, GFS drops the monster typhoon. It does show 2 separate weaker systems in the SCS and way east of the Marianas. Fascinating. Let's see what future runs show.

They do agree on two systems though.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1317793199679770626

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

So this season is at 17/8/4, an average or above average system if it were in the Atlantic with 3 months to go. Wow.

In a La Nina year...

2021 will bring hell.

Quiet and rest year for the residents.

[ElectricStorm]

So this season is at 17/8/4, an average or above average system if it were in the Atlantic with 3 months to go. Wow.

In a La Nina year...

2021 will bring hell.

Quiet and rest year for the residents.

How do you know 2021 won't be the same as 2020? The La Niña is expected to continue. And just because it would be above average in the Atlantic does not make those numbers that impressive in the WPAC lol

[euro6208]

So this season is at 17/8/4, an average or above average system if it were in the Atlantic with 3 months to go. Wow.

In a La Nina year...

2021 will bring hell.

Quiet and rest year for the residents.

How do you know 2021 won't be the same as 2020? The La Niña is expected to continue. And just because it would be above average in the Atlantic does not make those numbers that impressive in the WPAC lol

Unlike the other basins, the WPAC never shuts down that's what i meant.

The world's most active basin.

[ElectricStorm]

So this season is at 17/8/4, an average or above average system if it were in the Atlantic with 3 months to go. Wow.

In a La Nina year...

2021 will bring hell.

Quiet and rest year for the residents.

How do you know 2021 won't be the same as 2020? The La Niña is expected to continue. And just because it would be above average in the Atlantic does not make those numbers that impressive in the WPAC lol

Unlike the other basins, the WPAC never shuts down that's what i meant.

None of the basins really shut down lol... We'll except 1914 in the Atlantic

[aspen]

So this season is at 17/8/4, an average or above average system if it were in the Atlantic with 3 months to go. Wow.

In a La Nina year...

2021 will bring hell.

Quiet and rest year for the residents.

How do you know 2021 won't be the same as 2020? The La Niña is expected to continue. And just because it would be above average in the Atlantic does not make those numbers that impressive in the WPAC lol

Unlike the other basins, the WPAC never shuts down that's what i meant.

The world's most active basin.

*looks at July 2020*

[euro6208]

How do you know 2021 won't be the same as 2020? The La Niña is expected to continue. And just because it would be above average in the Atlantic does not make those numbers that impressive in the WPAC lol

Unlike the other basins, the WPAC never shuts down that's what i meant.

The world's most active basin.

*looks at July 2020*

I meant to say it doesn't shut down as a whole. A whole year. lol.

This year could be slow by WPAC standard but still active elsewhere...

[ElectricStorm]

Low rider is back on 18z GFS. Ends up recurving it at 934mb by the end of the run WAY out in fantasy range

[Hayabusa]

Low rider is back on 18z GFS. Ends up recurving it at 934mb by the end of the run WAY out in fantasy range

It is fantasy but the start of development is in 8 days, but it could be as well a phantom. But that sure is a quality TC if it ever develops a low rider and possibly a long tracker. We may finally have one besides Haishen

[ElectricStorm]

Low rider is back on 18z GFS. Ends up recurving it at 934mb by the end of the run WAY out in fantasy range

It is fantasy but the start of development is in 8 days, but it could be as well a phantom. But that sure is a quality TC if it ever develops a low rider and possibly a long tracker. We may finally have one besides Haishen

Yeah the GFS has been off and on with it. If it does indeed form and recurve it could be a nice one to track

[euro6208]

It's back.

[Hayabusa]

And this time of the season, the time of the season when typhoons produce CDG/VCDG convection or a full ring surrounding the eye .