Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[StPeteMike]

I doubt it will get dropped.

[ElectricStorm]

As Hurricaneman pointed out earlier, the GFS keeps trying to spin it up on the far NE of the gyre. I really don't see that happening, and I think we will get something going down there before it reaches Cuba.

[blp]

Meanwhile CMC no longer kicks out and gets left behind in the Bahamas. The NE movement on the models is out. Anything that develops will get trapped waiting for next front to pick it out. More typical evolution. I expect the Euro to give a little and show a little more development on this next run.

[TheStormExpert]

No development. Absorbed by the front. I think it has the right idea intially through 180hrs starting slow but I think it will develop once in the NW Carribean just south of Cuba.

So basically we went initially from development beginning tomorrow the 19th to development not happening until next Sunday the 25th?

Smells like a ghost storm to me! Might as well be as it’s Halloween.

[ElectricStorm]

No development. Absorbed by the front. I think it has the right idea intially through 180hrs starting slow but I think it will develop once in the NW Carribean just south of Cuba.

So basically we went initially from development beginning tomorrow the 19th to development not happening until next Sunday the 25th?

Smells like a ghost storm to me! Might as well be as it’s Halloween.

No. The initial gyre is supposed to form in the next few days with actual development shortly after that I believe. Again, it's just one run so we will have to see what future runs have in store.

[ElectricStorm]

I know the ICON isn't one of the more reliable models, but I think it's run is more likely than this GFS run.

[TheStormExpert]

No development. Absorbed by the front. I think it has the right idea intially through 180hrs starting slow but I think it will develop once in the NW Carribean just south of Cuba.

So basically we went initially from development beginning tomorrow the 19th to development not happening until next Sunday the 25th?

Smells like a ghost storm to me! Might as well be as it’s Halloween.

No. The initial gyre is supposed to form in the next few days with actual development shortly after that I believe. Again, it's just one run so we will have to see what future runs have in store.

Looking back at last Sunday’s 00z run on Tropical Tidbits development was supposed to start tomorrow.

Valid for 06z Monday October 19th.

[ElectricStorm]

Unchanged on TWO
2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles kill it over Cuba in just over a week.

[AutoPenalti]

Sounds like NHC will keep those numbers at 30%, they are probably also considering the alternative and that is that there is a chance that this may not develop at all.

[SFLcane]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles kill it over Cuba in just over a week.

Though the gfs operational continues to trend weaker what ensembles are you looking at?

[TheStormExpert]

Most 00z GEFS Ensembles kill it over Cuba in just over a week.

Though the gfs operational continues to trend weaker what ensembles are you looking at?

https://i.postimg.cc/FRqZstbd/C272-F20-E-F410-44-FD-9707-8-A553-CB556-C2.png

[cycloneye]

06z GFS barely develops and this after all the hype of wiper model solutions from this model in the past 8 days.

[cycloneye]

8 AM with no change in the text but in the graphic,the yellow area extends to the NW.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of
days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development
of this system will be possible through the middle of the week as
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[boca]

It looks like we have been chasing a phantom storm for over a week now incredible.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS barely develops and this after all the hype of wiper model solutions from this model in the past 8 days.

On the contrary the GEFS remains active.

[aspen]

What is keeping this from developing on the models? The disturbance have a trackable vorticity, and it’s over water for anywhere from 4 to 7 days. Odds are that something develops from this.

I checked the GFS’ relatively humidity and 200mb wind graphics, and I don’t see anything problematic. Conditions seem fairly good for development — 29-30C SSTs, high OHC, a nice big moisture field, low shear aloft, and perhaps even an anticyclone over the system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1317804043671113729

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1317804043671113729

The GFS did have a W Caribbean ghost earlier in the season as well.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1317804043671113729

The GFS did have a W Caribbean ghost earlier in the season as well.

If this is a ghost, it’s by far the most consistent and believable ghost ever. There’s still a trackable disturbance to watch for genesis that’ll emerge in the Caribbean at the same time frame the GFS was predicting over a week ago.

If you look at my post above, conditions seem pretty solid for development, so I have no idea what the models are seeing that prohibits genesis.