Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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TheStormExpert

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#761 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:05 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
I think the main controlling factor is how strong the SE US ridge will be. In recent years, it has been strong/persistent due to the very warm western Pacific making the last few winters mild in the SE US.

Right now we have a -NAO, but also have an -PNA. Not sure how that could affect things. Usually you need a -NAO and a +PNA to force colder weather down in these parts.

What is the PNA and would a +PNA lead to more ridging?

A +PNA tends to lead to less SE ridging. While a -PNA leads to more.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#762 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:36 pm

Impossible to know, how many times did GFS/Euro not show anything and a Cat 4 developed a few days later. This is probably the last real model system for us to chat about until June 2021, so let’s enjoy it... :D
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#763 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:48 pm

Blown Away wrote:Impossible to know, how many times did GFS/Euro not show anything and a Cat 4 developed a few days later. This is probably the last real model system for us to chat about until June 2021, so let’s enjoy it... :D


I second that emotion....
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#764 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:50 pm

Blown Away wrote:Impossible to know, how many times did GFS/Euro not show anything and a Cat 4 developed a few days later. This is probably the last real model system for us to chat about until June 2021, so let’s enjoy it... :D


I wouldn't be so sure of that. My guess is we may have one or two November surprises.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#765 Postby boca » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:Impossible to know, how many times did GFS/Euro not show anything and a Cat 4 developed a few days later. This is probably the last real model system for us to chat about until June 2021, so let’s enjoy it... :D


I agree I hope we aren’t chasing a phantom storm after 39 pages but honestly I enjoy reading the different viewpoints on this potential storm that’s why I love this board.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#766 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:57 pm

boca wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Impossible to know, how many times did GFS/Euro not show anything and a Cat 4 developed a few days later. This is probably the last real model system for us to chat about until June 2021, so let’s enjoy it... :D


I agree I hope we aren’t chasing a phantom storm after 39 pages but honestly I enjoy reading the different viewpoints on this potential storm that’s why I love this board.


Me too Boca....I couldnt have said it better....
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#767 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:13 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:GFS might have been trolling us this whole time! :roll:

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

We know there will be a disturbance of some sort near the western Caribbean. That in itself is a cause for concern. So regardless of what the models show (and they've been garbage this entire year), it needs to be watched very closely. Would be nice to tag this into an invest by mid week to see what the HWRF and HMON show.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#768 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:22 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Right now we have a -NAO, but also have an -PNA. Not sure how that could affect things. Usually you need a -NAO and a +PNA to force colder weather down in these parts.

What is the PNA and would a +PNA lead to more ridging?

A +PNA tends to lead to less SE ridging. While a -PNA leads to more.

Makes sense. I meant to type -PNA instead of + lol
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#769 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:34 pm

0z GFS initializing, I've noticed over the past couple days the 0z has differed from the 18z pretty significantly. Let's see if that continues.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#770 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:38 pm

Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS initializing, I've noticed over the past couple days the 0z has differed from the 18z pretty significantly. Let's see if that continues.


That’s because the 0Z isn’t drunk unlike the 18Z. :lol:

Seriously, let’s see how strong is the SE US ridge on this run.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#771 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:39 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS initializing, I've noticed over the past couple days the 0z has differed from the 18z pretty significantly. Let's see if that continues.


That’s because the 0Z isn’t drunk unlike the 18Z. :lol:

Seriously, let’s see how strong is the SE US ridge on this run.

That is true lol. The 18z is indeed the happy hour for a reason :D
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#772 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:55 pm

Hr 84, 94L stronger and further W. When it has shown 94L stronger, it has kept this system weaker in previous runs, let's see if that continues here
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#773 Postby blp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:58 pm

Icon strongest run. Fully on board now with GFS.

Image
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#774 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:18 pm

The GFS I believe has been wrong, convective feedback seems to be happening in all of its runs as the low on the GFS seems to develop at the very NE side of the gyre which makes little sense so until it resolves this the track and intensity could be erroneous
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#775 Postby blp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:19 pm

This run so far looks more realistic. Slower to develop and further West. In line with the ensembles and icon, CMC.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#776 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:25 pm

94L gets out of there before this system can even develop on this run. Ridging definitely coming back
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#777 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:34 pm

Back to square 1 on the GFS... no development through 234 hours
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#778 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:39 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Back to square 1 on the GFS... no development through 234 hours


Looks like maybe we were chasing a phantom
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#779 Postby blp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:41 pm

No development. Absorbed by the front. I think it has the right idea intially through 180hrs starting slow but I think it will develop once in the NW Carribean just south of Cuba.
Last edited by blp on Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#780 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:42 pm

blp wrote:No development. Absorbed by the front. GFS strikes again. I think it has the right idea starting slow but I think it will develop once in the NW Carribean just south of Cuba.

Yeah I agree I think something will come still come out of this. It's just one run after all, and it's still a ways out
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