Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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aspen
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#721 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:35 pm


Is that showing the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere? If so, that’s a lot of ridging north of Cuba.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#722 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:



Uhh...where did it go?


:eek: :eek: :eek:
Image
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#723 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm


Nothing “eek” about this. This is just straight evil.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#724 Postby sunnyday » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm

It shows basically nothing left of what??
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#725 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:



Uhh...where did it go?


:eek: :eek: :eek:
https://i.imgur.com/gyaKxJw.png


Lol, are we supposed to be able to make something out of that? That’s pretty wild. Signals blowing up all over but zero consistency
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#726 Postby Jr0d » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm

MetroMike wrote:
Jr0d wrote:Maybe this system is making up for Florida's luck so far. If the dice fall right, this system can potenially make 3 landfalls in Florida.

Naturally being in Key West, Inam really starting to pay attention to what may develop.

It shows basically nothing left of it.


??

Not sure what you mean?

There is still a very strong ensemble signature with this. Potentially this could pull north over Cuba, impact the Keys go east...miss 94L's trough and stall, mive westward over the peninsula for strike 2, stall again in the GoM and make strike 3 on the west coast with the next trough...

Not a likely scenerio, but certainly not impossible or even unreasonable scenerio given the information available.

As always trying to forecast a system that has yet to develop is guess work.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#727 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:



Uhh...where did it go?


That's the 500mb Hgt..showing the steering..
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#728 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm

A week from today will the GFS still be @200 hours out from Florida??? :D
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#729 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:40 pm


At this point we can’t discount the Euro or the UKMET solutions of something getting near or over the Yucatán peninsula before going north or northeast.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#730 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:41 pm

Blown Away wrote:A week from today will the GFS still be @200 hours out from Florida??? :D


We will be lucky if it forms by thanksgiving and if it’s done making landfalls by new year
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#731 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:41 pm

Blown Away wrote:A week from today will the GFS still be @200 hours out from Florida??? :D

Tell me about it! :roll:

As I was saying days ago, development keeps getting pushed out.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#732 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:43 pm

LarryWx wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:



Uhh...where did it go?


:eek: :eek: :eek:
https://i.imgur.com/gyaKxJw.png

Yikes, the operational GFS and the mean ensemble GFS are WAY off.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#733 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:



Uhh...where did it go?


:eek: :eek: :eek:
https://i.imgur.com/gyaKxJw.png


Oh! Now that’s a west shift
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#734 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:03 pm

I guess there has been some consistency in the GFS on particular runs i.e 12z agrees somewhat with 12z the previous day.
This is especially true with the 18z which in need of an intervention 8-)
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#735 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm

OuterBanker wrote:I guess there has been some consistency in the GFS on particular runs i.e 12z agrees somewhat with 12z the previous day.
This is especially true with the 18z which in need of an intervention 8-)


Are you trending towards the GFS?
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#736 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:06 pm



Look at the mean..This my friends right here is VERY interesting!
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#737 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:20 pm

What does that picture show?

SFLcane wrote:


Look at the mean..This my friends right here is VERY interesting!
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#738 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:20 pm

30% at 8 pm....a watched pot never boils....
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#739 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:26 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Look at the mean..This my friends right here is VERY interesting!

That doesn't look very strong, or is that map supposed to mean something else?
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#740 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:28 pm

Missing frames 18Z GFS-P is up and out. Think that is like five runs in a row with this:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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