Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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Kingarabian
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#701 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:55 pm

What a crazy steering setup that the GFS is persistent on. This could be catastrophic if this ends up landfalling over S Florida and ends up stalling.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#702 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:59 pm

The GFS is making something clear over the past few runs...if 94L doesn’t take this with it, it will get left behind to do something... no trough coming to immediately sweep it out.


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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#703 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:01 pm

18z GEFS still showing a big signal.


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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#704 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:07 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:18z GEFS still showing a big signal.


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The signal too has shifted west since 12z.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#705 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:What a crazy steering setup that the GFS is persistent on. This could be catastrophic if this ends up landfalling over S Florida and ends up stalling.


How much of an influence would 94L have on this system, should it evolve, have on the steering patterns?
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#706 Postby cp79 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:13 pm

So just to top it all off, the very end of the GFS run, it runs it straight Sw into the Yucatán and then begins to develop a new system in the Caribbean in its wake. Wtf is going on?
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#707 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:15 pm

A ton of dry continental air if it tries to turn back west. Saved loop:

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#708 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:17 pm

Waiting for the ensembles to finish loading. Ugly look for Florida. :eek:
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#709 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:A ton of dry continental air if it tries to turn back west. Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/HLdHRy2K/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh192-300.gif

Of course that’s 10+ days out.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#710 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:A ton of dry continental air if it tries to turn back west. Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/HLdHRy2K/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh192-300.gif


Looks like the potential system may want to stay put down there....away from all that dry air...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#711 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:18 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#712 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:22 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#713 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:23 pm



Kinda evil looking.....
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#714 Postby Jr0d » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:23 pm

Maybe this system is making up for Florida's luck so far. If the dice fall right, this system can potenially make 3 landfalls in Florida.

Naturally being in Key West, I am really starting to pay attention to what may develop.
Last edited by Jr0d on Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#715 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:23 pm



Just wow!!
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#716 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Just wow!!


Would you explain what it shows?.... please and thanks!...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#717 Postby MetroMike » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:25 pm

Jr0d wrote:Maybe this system is making up for Florida's luck so far. If the dice fall right, this system can potenially make 3 landfalls in Florida.

Naturally being in Key West, Inam really starting to pay attention to what may develop.

It shows basically nothing left of it.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#718 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm




Uhh...where did it go?
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#719 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm

8 PM:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#720 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm

I wish it would form already so we can see some ridiculous criss cross zigzag NHC track
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