Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Yes, the GFS operational runs have been all over the place, but the GEFS ensemble has been consistently calling for development, and there are some members closing off a low as soon as Monday afternoon in the SW Caribbean, so this could be another situation where models are playing catch up with reality. We will see this week... formation is not far out now on the GEFS.

Yeah, it is possible this could develop quicker than anticipated. The 12z runs were very slow with development, but if a concentrated area of vorticity within 24 hours of becoming a TC establishes itself on Tuesday instead of Thursday or Friday, then the odds for a stronger storm drastically shoot up. If the models are right and this area of low pressure becomes really big and hard to concentrate, then we’ll get a weaker storm that intensifies outside of the Caribbean (similar to Irene ‘99).

[TheStormExpert]

Happy Hour GFS is running. Let’s see how crazy it gets!

[blp]

Looks like Euro and UKMET keep the disturbance broad and weak and shunt it more NW into the GOM. GFS may be suffering from some convective feedback which organizes the storm too quickly. If this forms from a broad gyre, more likely to be broad and slow to develop. Also Euro doesn't get 94L even as far west as Bermuda and pretty quickly shunts it NE allowing more ridging in the SW Atlantic. Odds of a very strong major cane seem to be going down with time now.

I agree the development will be much slower than the GFS. Because of this it probably won't quickly eject NE. It appears the upgraded GFS still has strong bias toward aggressive development in this region. It used to also have a strong phantom bias which was corrected mostly and I think that is what hooked us all in was that the other models CMC, Para were biting as well but the reality is it's probably somewhere in the middle with a weak to moderate system in the NW Carribean heading north then bending to the NE after the next front picks it up.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS so far has 94L considerably more NE, similar to the 18z run of October 15.

[aspen]

Another run with a double-lobed gyre and slow development from the circulation that will spawn Zeta. It seems to be a little closer to Honduras/Nicaragua than in the 12z run.

[Kingarabian]

The general vort area seems to be west compared to the past couple of runs. Same position as yesterdays 18z.

[SouthFLTropics]

This run is going to be slower to develop and 94L probably won't have an influence on it. Expect a west shift and impact coming out of the Caribbean.

[aspen]

Pre-Zeta just keeps on going NW with practically no development, although it’s a more concentrated spin than in 12z. I’d have to imagine that a precursor like that would develop quicker than the GFS is showing.

[Kingarabian]

At this point it might go west of Florida. Weaker and continues the weaker trend from the GFS.

[blp]

At this point it might go west of Florida. Weaker and continues the weaker trend from the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/tnZOWBR.gif

Yep weakest run so far. Looks like GFS is moving toward the Euro. Unlike the Euro I think this will develop though.

[aspen]

The precursor disturbance enters the Caribbean on Monday and doesn’t hit Cuba until Saturday. It has to at least do SOMETHING during that 5-day time frame, but for some reason, the GFS has been getting tamer and tamer with this. Maybe it realized it’s 2020 and the models are supposed to be crap and not show any development.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point it might go west of Florida. Weaker and continues the weaker trend from the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/tnZOWBR.gif

Yep weakest run so far. Looks like GFS is moving toward the Euro. Unlike the Euro I think this will develop though.

Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut!

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it going to hit the brakes in the Bahamas???

[blp]

Is it going to hit the brakes in the Bahamas???

I think so.. weakness is closed 94l is gone. Moving very slowly in Bahamas. Let see if ridge builds in.

EDIT: Lifting out slowly, I think ridge is not oriented to block this time.

[Kingarabian]

Nvm:


But moving slowly. Wonder if the window to escape closes and forces this back into Florida.

[SFLcane]

This is still close to SFL... likely to change

[blp]

Blocked heading SE now...Oh boy.

[underthwx]

I was thinking yesterday, that the 5 day formation chances, would be up near the higher percentages by Saturday evening...........wrong....

[cp79]

GFS just had a shot for happy hour. It’s getting silly.

[SFLcane]

Such a difficult forecast here.