Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[cp79]

Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/2Sc4tVJT/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

In fairness, the GFS is just starting to pull vorticity together @150 hrs... Euro has not shown much with this area so far...

Does the Euro ever show development with a storm? They didn’t develop Laura, Isaias, Salley or Delta until they actually hit Depression status. In fact, I don’t think they’ve developed a storm all year until they were classified. So throw their model out until it gets a name.

[DestinHurricane]

Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/2Sc4tVJT/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

In fairness, the GFS is just starting to pull vorticity together @150 hrs... Euro has not shown much with this area so far...

Does the Euro ever show development with a storm? They didn’t develop Laura, Isaias, Salley or Delta until they actually hit Depression status. In fact, I don’t think they’ve developed a storm all year until they were classified. So throw their model out until it gets a name.

The Euro has been genesis blind this year, especially in the western part of the basin. I wouldn't trust euro for handling genesis.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS did some Day Drinking today. It is Saturday after all. By 18z it will be passed out.

[SconnieCane]

Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/2Sc4tVJT/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

In fairness, the GFS is just starting to pull vorticity together @150 hrs... Euro has not shown much with this area so far...

Does the Euro ever show development with a storm? They didn’t develop Laura, Isaias, Salley or Delta until they actually hit Depression status. In fact, I don’t think they’ve developed a storm all year until they were classified. So throw their model out until it gets a name.

I still don't understand why anyone still insists on deferring to the Euro for genesis after this year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1317542205905637376

[SFLcane]

One thing for sure the GEFS remains very aggressive near SFL.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1317539412281012224

[underthwx]

https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1317539412281012224?

Maybe it's the Bermuda Triangle?...

[aspen]

Speed will also matter a lot. If Zeta is faster like the GFS-Para, it’ll be able to sneak out in the opening Epsilon leaves behind. If it’s slower like the GFS, Epsilon will be out of the picture by the time Zeta crosses Cuba, and the ridge will rebuild. There’s a difference of two full days between Zeta’s Cuba landfall in the 12z GFS and GFS-Para runs. Speed will also determine how much time Zeta will have to organize and intensify before Cuba.

[MetroMike]

Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/2Sc4tVJT/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

I won't even look at the Euro anymore, its been sleeping all season until something develops.

[underthwx]

In spite of the early and consistent development signals by both the GFS and Para, the bottom line is that both have simply pumped out model solutions based on a storm that at minimum they have jumped the gun on. Perhaps the ICON & UK might suggest a bit of increased model consensus? As bad as the EURO has been this year, any suggestion of significant development from it would lend some greater confidence of a west Caribbean storm likely to form. The fact that NHC has increased their longer range prediction up to 30% suggest an increased likelihood of eventual development but that doesn't mean that the end result will necessarily be anything anything stronger then a weak T.S. My low-confidence guess at this point would err toward a moderate to strong T.S. somewhere between the Yucatan channel & Isle of Pines around Oct. 25-28th

Or for that matter....it may result in a depression, and nothing more?...

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing to keep an eye on for future Euro Ensemble runs... Noticed a few of this afternoons 12z ensembles have the left hook and bend back to the west on them.

[underthwx]

This thread is, at its core...a models thread...on a system that hasn't formed yet...my question is...looking back....can one or more of you share a time...where models have nailed down a system, pre-low formation... strength....track?...I'm sure they have...to be honest...I don't know how to look up information like that...that's where yall come in...I been on here for almost 10 years asking questions...and yall always come through for guys like me that don't have the knowledge alot of you do....

[ronjon]

Looks like Euro and UKMET keep the disturbance broad and weak and shunt it more NW into the GOM. GFS may be suffering from some convective feedback which organizes the storm too quickly. If this forms from a broad gyre, more likely to be broad and slow to develop. Also Euro doesn't get 94L even as far west as Bermuda and pretty quickly shunts it NE allowing more ridging in the SW Atlantic. Odds of a very strong major cane seem to be going down with time now.

[ronjon]

Ensemble runs probably best guide now.

[mitchell]

Someone in South Florida needs to hurry up and make amends with the 18z GFS model because every afternoon that model smacks South Florida with the storm just parking over top for days, after the other three runs run it off to the northeast.

[SouthFLTropics]

Someone in South Florida needs to hurry up and make amends with the 18z GFS runs because every afternoon that model comes back and smacks South Florida with the storm just parking over top, while the other three runs look like a normal model and run it off to the northeast.

You obviously didn't see the 12z GFS from today... LOL

[mitchell]

Someone in South Florida needs to hurry up and make amends with the 18z GFS runs because every afternoon that model comes back and smacks South Florida with the storm just parking over top, while the other three runs look like a normal model and run it off to the northeast.

You obviously didn't see the 12z GFS from today... LOL

OOPS you're right...i thought that was the 18 running already. My bad! Of course you could make the argument that happy hour often begins at noon on Saturdays!

[Emmett_Brown]

Yes, the GFS operational runs have been all over the place, but the GEFS ensemble has been consistently calling for development, and there are some members closing off a low as soon as Monday afternoon in the SW Caribbean, so this could be another situation where models are playing catch up with reality. We will see this week... formation is not far out now on the GEFS.

[underthwx]

Someone in South Florida needs to hurry up and make amends with the 18z GFS model because every afternoon that model smacks South Florida with the storm just parking over top for days, after the other three runs run it off to the northeast.

Maybe that GFS is crazy like a fox...one thing I have felt all along...is that whatever becomes of this...will not be moving anywhere too quickly...will a model become erratic with a system that is forecast to be stationary?