Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, I see that. This part of the run doesn’t add up. That trough should have no problem catching it.


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[SFLcane]

GEFS Ensembles should be fun lol.

[SouthFLTropics]

It’s doing a loop...still think it heads NE.


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[SFLcane]

Heading NE now towards FL..

[aspen]

What a weird genesis and track. The GFS keeps trying to reform the system to the NE before it eventually crosses Cuba as a sloppy TS, but with Epsilon leaving the picture, the ridge rebuilds and traps Zeta in the Bahamas, where it becomes a hurricane.





After 9-10 days, the GFS smokes all of the drugs once again and has a Gulf major.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

This GFS run is not as bizarre as it looks when you review all of the variables in play. It actually makes sense. The only thing suspect to me is how strong the ridge is that turns it west. I think that turn would be more gradual and not as drastic. I don’t buy the WSW motion back towards Cuba.


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[ElectricStorm]

Lol at the 12z GFS run... Talk about wild changes every single run lol

[Frank2]

The crazy tracks start 10 days out and beyond and of course that means it's all subject to change. My guess - the Atlantic system is large and large systems leave large troughs. That and the active west to east pattern at the mid latitudes means it's very likely whatever will form in the Caribbean will follow the Atlantic system NE ahead of the next cold front.

Of course until then the computer models are having fun with our imagination (more hash for lunch)...

[SouthFLTropics]

I think we may start seeing the Euro get onboard shortly. Today was the first time Icon has really latched on. Let’s see what the peasant has to say later (he’s no longer the King ).


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[SFLcane]

Major hurricane into Fort Myers obviously fantasy range.

[gatorcane]

The CMC like the Euro seems pretty locked on to an ejection NE with the CMC being stronger:

[gatorcane]

Major hurricane into Fort Myers obviously fantasy range.

The GFS is typically threatening Florida in the fantasy range. Wake me up when it shows something under 168 hours

[gfsperpendicular]

This is approaching yesterday's 18z run in terms of craziness, it looks like it missed the trough and is turning back into the gulf

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS pulling a GFS-P with the movement from east to west then back east towards Florida in early November.

[SFLcane]

[Frank2]

I think the key here regarding anything that forms in the Caribbean is the size of the Atlantic system - probably the largest this season and that means it will leave a large footprint of low pressure...

[TheStormExpert]

We need to see what future-Epsilon does before we get any idea on what potential future-Zeta does. The trend from the GFS has been our friend here in Florida for a few runs before showing a crazy run like this once or twice a day.

[aspen]

It’ll be crazy and totally 2020 if we’re tracking this thing until early November lol.

Then again, we were tracking Paulette and its precursor and remnants from late August until early October...

[TheStormExpert]

I think the key here regarding anything that forms in the Caribbean is the size of the Atlantic system - probably the largest this season and that means it will leave a large footprint of low pressure...

The quicker Epsilon leaves the quicker a ridge can rebuild.