CMC Ensembles 11/2/03

[Stormsfury]

Showing a change in the pattern in the longer range ... but that's another story. Basically speaking, several CMC ensemble members are hinting at the East coast storm spinning up offshore in the SW Atlantic ... (and it isn't the Caribbean wave, it's another area of vorticity being drawn NW with time since the map doesn't extend well out into the Caribbean/Atlantic) As the Atlantic Subtropical System is shearing out this morning and becoming an inverted trough, the moisture and wave in the Caribbean COULD be drawn northwestward ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The operational 00z CMC run keeps a general overall idea and clearly shows the vorticity spinup (IF it verifies) occurs in the Southern Central Atlantic (shown on the 925mb vorticity)

00z CMC MSLP -
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC 925 mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The GFS doesn't support this as the main vorticity splits off to the NE and leaves too little energy behind ... and neither does the other globals ...

00z GFS 950mb Vort.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The GFDL is further north with the invest. (Was also initialized with a 38.4 kt and increased to 40.2 kt before shearing out (which the low is doing now).
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

Basically speaking and IMHO, things after the subtropical system shears out and crosses Florida with a little squally weather ... the only thing basically left is the Caribbean wave, and there's not much support at this time. Only the NOGAPS has a low develop in the GOM (from our current invest in the W. GOM).

Things looks to quiet down after this time frame and maybe for the rest of the season.

[Anonymous]

It does indeed look intereresting. But the models need to know, it IS November.

[vbhoutex]

As the Atlantic Subtropical System is shearing out this morning and becoming an inverted trough,

So what I was seeing on the loop this morning was the subtropical system opening into and inverted trough then SF?

It does appear the things definitely quieting down at this time. With any weather though, especially the tropics, I NEVER SAY NEVER!! After a year like this a Hurricane in January almost wouldn't be a surprise!!LOL!!

[Stormsfury]

As the Atlantic Subtropical System is shearing out this morning and becoming an inverted trough,

So what I was seeing on the loop this morning was the subtropical system opening into an inverted trough then SF?

Yep, your eyes weren't deceiving you.

It does appear the things definitely quieting down at this time. With any weather though, especially the tropics, I NEVER SAY NEVER!! After a year like this a Hurricane in January almost wouldn't be a surprise!!LOL!!

I'll stick my neck out and say it won't happen (even though it's happened once before)... hehe (

[ColdFront77]

The low in the Caribbean isn't apparent on these forecast model loops.

[cycloneye]

The low in the Caribbean isn't apparent on these forecast model loops.

Tom there is no surface low in the eastern caribbean but there is an ULL that is enhancing the convection in the area .

[ColdFront77]

That's true, Luis. I didn't mean to call the system in the Caribbean a (surface) low. I know it is more a trough than a low pressure system.