Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[AutoPenalti]

Wait a minute - something is happening here.

[skyline385]

Its turning again dangit

[SouthFLTropics]

Wait a minute - something is happening here.

Door may be closing...this is what I’m afraid of...gets far enough North and then left behind.


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[SFLcane]

Just to close to call gfs does not know what to do with 94L. Probably swing back west in the morning.

[ElectricStorm]

Turning back again at hr. 234...

[skyline385]

Is it going to stall over the Bahamas waiting for the ridge to weaken? There is a low moving in from the west

[ElectricStorm]

Slowing down over the same areas hit by Dorian last year

[SouthFLTropics]

Turning back again at hr. 234...

Yep...now it’s a race. Does it make it back to the Florida east coast before a trough can sweep it out?


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[AutoPenalti]

Just to close to call gfs does not know what to do with 94L. Probably swing back west in the morning.

Maybe, trough is coming though.

[skyline385]

Plenty of time before the trough gets there

[ElectricStorm]

Turning back NE at hr 252... wait, back N at 258

[SFLcane]

What I find interesting is it didn’t eject quickly out so we’re talking about 50-100 miles east/west 6-7 days out impossible to predict. Another strong hurricane near FL this run stay tuned.

[ElectricStorm]

Heading out NE at 270... Starting to get pretty far out in the run now. Florida needs to keep close watch of it as it still gets fairly close. Also Carolinas as it actually gets pretty close to them too. The 6z run will be interesting because I've noticed the 6z and 18z runs have been a bit W of the 0z and 12z runs the last couple of days.

[SouthFLTropics]

There are similar things to note between the 18z and 00z. Both took the same pattern out of the Caribbean, 00z was just further east. They both showed the slowdown and turn in the Bahamas with the 18z making the full turn and landfall in Florida. The big difference between the two runs was that the Caribbean system established itself further east and 94L was further west and more pronounced. Small variables leading to a similar, but drastically different outcome at 240+ hours.

[boca]

Nope going to the Carolinas.

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile, 00z CMC is going with a sheared mess in the Bahamas.

[WeatherHoon]

Heading out NE at 270... Starting to get pretty far out in the run now. Florida needs to keep close watch of it as it still gets fairly close. The 6z run will be telling because I've noticed the 6z and 18z runs have been a bit W of the 0z and 12z runs the last couple of days.

I don't think the 6z run will be very telling at all. We're still quite a few days away until we get some semblance of "telling" or clarity.

[skyline385]

its all up in the air until 94L starts developing

[ElectricStorm]

Heading out NE at 270... Starting to get pretty far out in the run now. Florida needs to keep close watch of it as it still gets fairly close. The 6z run will be telling because I've noticed the 6z and 18z runs have been a bit W of the 0z and 12z runs the last couple of days.

I don't think the 6z run will be very telling at all. We're still quite a few days away until we get some semblance of "telling" or clarity.

I edited my post, "telling" probably wasn't the right word

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At the very least, the GFS is showing what may be a severe impact to Cuba and the Bahamas in the coming week.