Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[Spacecoast]

[url][/url]

Any chance the GFS hurricane is a phantom? I just really wonder since really the GFS and the GFS-P are the only two models showing a significant hurricane. I know it is the NAVGEM but barely anything still and usually the model gives false positives where we see the model bombing out something only for it not to happen. Only the CMC has something of moderate significance but really only once out of the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qwyFhtk/2-E602-F7-A-EC9-C-47-A1-A261-EF5923-FF232-D.gif

Again for what it’s worth the GEFS has been nothing short of excellent this season with its long range forecast. When you see a signal such as what it’s been showing for days and days look out. Nhc did note at 8pm a broad low is now expected to form down there so look for things to get going sometime this weekend. Is this one we should watch? I have had this feeling all year that Florida will not escape this prolific landfalling season. Let’s hope i am wrong.

Has any particular member been more excellent? There really is quite a spread, and the 12z GEFS run is quite different than the 18z GEFS run.
I am not familiar with the individual members.
Is the eC (control) member equivalent to the operational GFS?
Is the eM member equivalent to the mean (average) of other 30 members?
Just trying to understand...

[ElectricStorm]

18z gfs reminded me of hurricane King which slammed into SFL on October 18, 1950

https://i.imgur.com/gxSu07m.png

If that storm were to happen now... it would be devastating...

[SFLcane]

[url][/url]

Any chance the GFS hurricane is a phantom? I just really wonder since really the GFS and the GFS-P are the only two models showing a significant hurricane. I know it is the NAVGEM but barely anything still and usually the model gives false positives where we see the model bombing out something only for it not to happen. Only the CMC has something of moderate significance but really only once out of the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qwyFhtk/2-E602-F7-A-EC9-C-47-A1-A261-EF5923-FF232-D.gif

Again for what it’s worth the GEFS has been nothing short of excellent this season with its long range forecast. When you see a signal such as what it’s been showing for days and days look out. Nhc did note at 8pm a broad low is now expected to form down there so look for things to get going sometime this weekend. Is this one we should watch? I have had this feeling all year that Florida will not escape this prolific landfalling season. Let’s hope i am wrong.

Has any particular member been more excellent? There really is quite a spread, and the 12z GEFS run is quite different than the 18z GEFS run.
I am not familiar with the individual members.
Is the eC (control) member equivalent to the operational GFS?
Is the eM member equivalent to the mean (average) of other 30 members?
Just trying to understand...

My post was in regards to genesis.

[Spacecoast]

[url][/url]

Again for what it’s worth the GEFS has been nothing short of excellent this season with its long range forecast. When you see a signal such as what it’s been showing for days and days look out. Nhc did note at 8pm a broad low is now expected to form down there so look for things to get going sometime this weekend. Is this one we should watch? I have had this feeling all year that Florida will not escape this prolific landfalling season. Let’s hope i am wrong.

Has any particular member been more excellent? There really is quite a spread, and the 12z GEFS run is quite different than the 18z GEFS run.
I am not familiar with the individual members.
Is the eC (control) member equivalent to the operational GFS?
Is the eM member equivalent to the mean (average) of other 30 members?
Just trying to understand...

My post was in regards to genesis.

I realize that. I actually expect genesis. At least 50% chance IMHO. However Alan Brammer's SUNY site still does not show GEFS genesis:
....http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/

His site shows the ECMF Genesis at ~45%, but as of now, the GEFS does not yet show up.

My questions were in fact with respect to track, and what the eC member, and eM member represents.
If you would enlighten me, I would appreciate it. I haven't been able to educate myself adequately.

[ElectricStorm]

Shear is howling down there right now, I'm sure that will change in a few days.

[Fancy1001]

I think this run the GFS said to the parallel, how about I do the crazy run this time and you do the normal looking one.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF genesis ~45%

12z GEFS genesis not meeting threshold, yet for hrs 0-240 for this system, but >90% for non-tropical L east of Bermuda...

18Z FSU has CMC and GFS development, and puts probability @ 55%

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is trending towards more ridging

[lhpfish]

So while the models are all over the place, I think we will see a spin up this coming week. Lived in south Florida all of my life and agree that Florida has its deflector shield up which is providing an insane amount of good luck the last few years. Anyways, this setup reminds me of Irene. Little talked about hurricane which was a quick spin up. Pounded NE Broward, out of nowhere. I remember being in high school and we shut down early at 1pm, got picked up and a hurricane came through Thai night. Be it a Cat1, it was still an impressive event on the east side of Broward. Small storm, probably more TS in nature but the track and genisis ir this storm is rarely referenced on this forum.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL131999_Irene.pdf

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a tad S and a couple mb stronger than 18z through hour 174... Looks to potentially be another big run... also 94L much stronger and more defined than 18z

[SouthFLTropics]

0z GFS a tad S and a couple mb stronger than 18z through hour 174... Looks to potentially be another big run... also 94L much stronger and more defined than 18z

More importantly, 94L much further west. May open the door for this to escape East of Florida.


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[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a tad S and a couple mb stronger than 18z through hour 174... Looks to potentially be another big run... also 94L much stronger and more defined than 18z

More importantly, 94L much further west. May open the door for this to escape East of Florida.


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Yep. Hour 186 already E of 18z

[SFLcane]

This should recurve pretty easily away from FL.

[SouthFLTropics]

The question will be whether it gets lifted up and all the way out or does it bend back west.


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[ElectricStorm]

Woah 10mb drop from hour 186 to 192 as it nears Cuba... Hits Cuba stronger than 18z also... Pretty consistent on Cuba getting a major over the last several runs...

[lhpfish]

Should I cancel my key west trip this weekend.....

[AutoPenalti]

The sudden emergence of Invest 94L may be the saving grace for Florida - again.

[ElectricStorm]

This run looks very plausible so far as I think is has a much better handle on 94L than the 18z had and 94L seems to be the big kicker here in terms of track

[SouthFLTropics]

This run looks very plausible so far as I think is has a much better handle on 94L than the 18z had and 94L seems to be the big kicker here in terms of track

Without doubt, 94L holds the key to the trap door. The evolution of 94L in the coming days will be critical.


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[ElectricStorm]

Major in the Bahamas... even if this does miss Florida, it's very likely it hits Cuba and Bahamas, both of which have had Cat 5 landfalls in recent years...