Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Between the crazy runs that the Para has shown over the last 24 hours and then the 18z GFS, I think a split between those solutions and the eject to the NE solutions may be the best long term prediction. I would not be surprised at all to see a track like Matthew, albeit coming out of the Caribbean further west than Matthew did.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS P headed north towards Florida. Note also that is just one week away:

[SouthFLTropics]

So the Para ends up ejecting it NE but not before jogging straight North through the Bahamas. This tells me that there is a potential for ridging to be there. Something to watch for on future runs.

[StPeteMike]

The models that were forecasting a NE movement of a system a few days ago, be weak or strong, seem to be less confident about such a movement now. Agree with SouthFLTropics, think models are catching on to a stronger ridge.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hurricane 5 of 1895 and Hurricane Fox of 1952 may also be good analogs for this system...

[cp79]

So the Para ends up ejecting it NE but not before jogging straight North through the Bahamas. This tells me that there is a potential for ridging to be there. Something to watch for on future runs.

https://i.imgur.com/Vn1USeG.gif

This is the scenario I’m most worried about for Tampa. If it stays with that north motion another 12 hours or so before the NE turn it rides that west coast up.

[otowntiger]

18Z GFS P headed north towards Florida. Note also that is just one week away:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmf8M6qb/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-168.gif

And now the Para is the sensible one. Regardless I’m very skeptical as the two GFS models are on an island with this. Not only am I not convinced of their tracks and especially intensity, I’m not even convinced anything substantial comes of this at all. But of course we’ll see- I’ve clearly been wrong before. (Sticking with the bears, as per my usual).

[cp79]

For those who do live in Tampa like me, just a reminder this is our time of year. The last major to hit the area directly was in 1921 which formed on October 20 in the very same area this is forecast to form.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Ta ... _hurricane

[underthwx]

LOL, it we ever create a thread for bizarre models the 18z Oct 16 GFS would be number 1.

While 94L will become a harmless fish. This could be a threat. It has seemed to windshield wiper from fish to coast hugger.

But, we here have been very lucky and we should escape anything this year except we have had a bad omen.

Our elderly neighbor put her hurricane shutters early and left them up.

Today she had them taken down.

I am now concerned

Be strong...

[aspen]

Yikes, that Para run is super close to a Cat 3 riding up the SEUS coast. It yet again has MH landfalls in Cuba and the Bahamas.

Regardless if Zeta impacts the US or not, it looks like it will be a very powerful and destructive storm to regions that have been battered by Category 5 landfalls within the last few years.

[TheStormExpert]

So the Para ends up ejecting it NE but not before jogging straight North through the Bahamas. This tells me that there is a potential for ridging to be there. Something to watch for on future runs.

https://i.imgur.com/Vn1USeG.gif

I can’t help but laugh at how many runs in the past day or two the GFS-P has shown this system swerving and avoiding Florida. Is as if the Florida Hurricane Shield really exists.

[skyline385]

lots of dispersion in 18Z GEFS

[underthwx]

lots of dispersion in 18Z GEFS

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485131981043269632/766845008174907402/gefs_cyclones_carib_360.png

That gives me double vision just lookin at it...

[SFLcane]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

Any chance the GFS hurricane is a phantom? I just really wonder since really the GFS and the GFS-P are the only two models showing a significant hurricane. I know it is the NAVGEM but barely anything still and usually the model gives false positives where we see the model bombing out something only for it not to happen. Only the CMC has something of moderate significance but really only once out of the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qwyFhtk/2-E602-F7-A-EC9-C-47-A1-A261-EF5923-FF232-D.gif

Again for what it’s worth the GEFS has been nothing short of excellent this season with its long range forecast. When you see a signal such as what it’s been showing for days and days look out. Nhc did note at 8pm a broad low is now expected to form down there so look for things to get going sometime this weekend. Is this one we should watch? I have had this feeling all year that Florida will not escape this prolific landfalling season. Let’s hope i am wrong.

[aspen]

Something to note is that the GFS-Para’s “launching point” for Zeta is on the South American coast and not within the SW Caribbean, putting it outside of the NHC’s development bubble. A further west development would give Zeta a lot more time over 29.5-30.5C SSTs and high OHC, meaning the ceiling will be insanely high assuming dry air and shear won’t be problems.

[SFLcane]

18z gfs reminded me of hurricane King which slammed into SFL on October 18, 1950

[otowntiger]

lots of dispersion in 18Z GEFS

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485131981043269632/766845008174907402/gefs_cyclones_carib_360.png

Vast majority of those miss Florida. Pretty amazing.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though there may be a broad low forming in the western Caribbean but has little to no convection at the moment but could start sustaining convection in the next few days