Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[underthwx]

Model run hall of fame for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif

Landfall in Alberqurque?....the ABQ yo...

[sma10]

Ugh. The GFS showing the old "go north over Cuba-stall 96 hrs over S FL-exit due West into the Gulf-and move due south over the Yucatan" routine

[sunnyday]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

yeah, we hope that is the case.

[otowntiger]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Yes- I can almost guarantee it will change again and drastically so. I still think the climatologically correct track will eventually occur, and that is ejection northeast out of the Caribbean well to the east of CONUS. That is if anything forms at all.

[Nuno]

That’s why I’m pointing it out. The complacency is there! Especially after close calls like Matthew and Dorian. Fortunately I was here for both 2004 and 2005, though I was a kid but I still remember them all too well.

I disagree. Don't you remember the MASS EXODUS for Irma that clogged all roads N and left people stranded for days? The vast majority of those people know we got LUCKY. There is no complacency in FL above the normal threshold you would expect.

That’s why I didn’t mention Irma! But even it wasn’t as bad as originally being forecasted.

Maybe not as bad as forecasted but that doesnt matter to our friends in the Middle Keys

[Nuno]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Past history is not a guarantee or sure fire indicator of future events.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ooof...

[AutoPenalti]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Past history is not a guarantee or sure fire indicator of future events.

Climo has been anything but and yet people still go by it...

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Past history is not a guarantee or sure fire indicator of future events.

Climo has been anything but and yet people still go by it...

Climo is definitely a tool to use. Hurricane in NW Caribbean in October has very high odds of NE over Cuba either over or just E of Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 18z craziness continues... 18z Para is coming in well west of the 12z... And stronger!!!

[toad strangler]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Yes- I can almost guarantee it will change again and drastically so. I still think the climatologically correct track will eventually occur, and that is ejection northeast out of the Caribbean well to the east of CONUS. That is if anything forms at all.

A climatologically correct track that you speak of is November. Not October. Being this is LATE October when and if this goes down do we get a blend? Who knows but you can't say this outcome is not correct per climo. No man. But I get that you don't want to stray from character being one of this forums biggest bears

[AutoPenalti]

Past history is not a guarantee or sure fire indicator of future events.

Climo has been anything but and yet people still go by it...

Climo is definitely a tool to use. Hurricane in NW Caribbean in October has very high odds of NE over Cuba either over or just E of Florida.

It’s definitely a tool, but that shouldn’t be treated as gospel.

[DestinHurricane]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

Yes- I can almost guarantee it will change again and drastically so. I still think the climatologically correct track will eventually occur, and that is ejection northeast out of the Caribbean well to the east of CONUS. That is if anything forms at all.

Climo would favor track over S FL or just east. Well east of conus isn't really favored climo.

[OuterBanker]

LOL, it we ever create a thread for bizarre models the 18z Oct 16 GFS would be number 1.

While 94L will become a harmless fish. This could be a threat. It has seemed to windshield wiper from fish to coast hugger.

But, we here have been very lucky and we should escape anything this year except we have had a bad omen.

Our elderly neighbor put her hurricane shutters early and left them up.

Today she had them taken down.

I am now concerned

[LarryWx]

Could this idea of hitting Fl be like so many times in the past ? Florida is often targeted early on but usually is not the point of landfall, after all.

I still think the climatologically correct track will eventually occur, and that is ejection northeast out of the Caribbean well to the east of CONUS. That is if anything forms at all.

Imo, there's no such thing as a "climo correct track". There are climo favored general tracks, but climo doesn't say where something is going to track. Climo gives general guidelines as to probabilities of various scenarios and that's all. If something doesn't follow a track with a high prob, that doesn't mean climo is being ignored as some insist on.

[shansgonefishin]

Oh boy... just watched that 18Z GFS run and thought, well that’s gotta be worth more than some rapid intensification on this thread.... You gals and guys did not disappoint!

What the hell was that lol!

Coming to you from Grand Cayman, we are all waiting with baited breath down here to see what the heck come’s from this one....

[psyclone]

The problem with climo humping right now is that Florida is part of climo favored tracks this time of year. In fact from the eastern gulf, across FL and the Bahamas all reside within common storm lanes. Now that seasonal changes are underway...climo changes fast the risk quickly fades by month end. So if something is going to happen...it needs to get cracking. but we still have time...and the place is right. there's a part of me that wonders if i tempted fate by beginning to consume my cane supplies...but not enough for me to quit...

[gatorcane]

Any chance the GFS hurricane is a phantom? I just really wonder since really the GFS and the GFS-P are the only two models showing a significant hurricane. I know it is the NAVGEM but barely anything still and usually the model gives false positives where we see the model bombing out something only for it not to happen. Only the CMC has something of moderate significance but really only once out of the Caribbean.