Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[ronjon]

Nope goes inland to just north of Lake O.

[kevin]

So there were like 4 pages of people looking at different GFS runs saying that it is probably no threat to Florida anymore only for 18z to smash right into the state. It will probably change a lot again over the next runs and days, but this just goes to show that models shift and change a lot, especially this far out. Of course it's interesting to speculate, that's also why I'm here posting in this thread, but I think deep down we all know these models are semi-worthless for exact track predictions this far out until some kind of low is starting to develop.

[toad strangler]

Jesus, and stalls on top of my house. YIKES
I'll take that at 200 plus though. #notlikely

[skyline385]

Feels like the mid-Atlantic storm failing to develop this run altered its path and now it shows its stalling right over me, every other run it would just follow in its wake dodging SFL

[edu2703]

So much for trending away from Florida...

[skyline385]

It just turned and made a second landfall in PBC, this run...

[Kingarabian]

Well it is the 18z. So let's see what the 00z shows of course.

[ronjon]

Yeah thankfully out 9 or 10 days. Would of course be a friggin disaster for S Florida with it meandering around for two days.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS has a much different pattern over the CONUS vs earlier runs with more ridging in the east! This could get interesting. Will the TC stop and turn west soon?

Well, it ended up turning west into the Gulf but it took a long time to do so.

[Spacecoast]

Yeah thankfully out 9 or 10 days. Would of course be a friggin disaster for S Florida with it meandering around for two days.

More like 3 solid days..

[toad strangler]

It just turned and made a second landfall in PBC, this run...

These storms just don't behave like that. Yes there have been some historic track quirkiness but the VAST majority of storms tracks are not this. Let's not forget that this is the HAPPY HOUR 18z and on a FRIDAY!!!

[gatorcane]

Maybe the GFS P wasn’t so crazy after all

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the GFS just got a dose of those drugs the Para was recently using. However, it is definitely a plausible scenario. Gets lifted just enough out the Caribbean before ridging builds back in. Then it will wait for the next trough to sweep it out. It is not uncommon to see storms in the NW Bahamas and vicinity of South Florida meander around for a while. Joaquin and Dorian immediately come to mind.

[ronjon]

And it ends up in the SE GOM with even stronger 500 mb ridging building north of it. Quite entertaining I must say.

[SouthFLTropics]

The ensembles will be quite interesting. Ultimately, this is just like everything else we've been seeing in the long range. Take with a huge boulder of salt. Two things that are going to be important to establish is where it decides to come together in the Caribbean, and what eventual evolution of the second system in the subtropics is.

[SouthFLTropics]

And it ends up in the SE GOM with even stronger 500 mb ridging building north of it. Quite entertaining I must say.

I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't done with Florida on this run. Front should sweep in and take it Northeast eventually.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS thinks it's August with that building ridge

[skyline385]

Its in the GOM now strengthening away lol

[skyline385]

That ridge is ridiculous, and it will probably pivot back after the ridge weakens.