Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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ronjon
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#421 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:36 pm

Nope goes inland to just north of Lake O.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#422 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:36 pm

So there were like 4 pages of people looking at different GFS runs saying that it is probably no threat to Florida anymore only for 18z to smash right into the state. It will probably change a lot again over the next runs and days, but this just goes to show that models shift and change a lot, especially this far out. Of course it's interesting to speculate, that's also why I'm here posting in this thread, but I think deep down we all know these models are semi-worthless for exact track predictions this far out until some kind of low is starting to develop.
Last edited by kevin on Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:40 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#423 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:36 pm

Jesus, and stalls on top of my house. YIKES
I'll take that at 200 plus though. #notlikely
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#424 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:38 pm

Feels like the mid-Atlantic storm failing to develop this run altered its path and now it shows its stalling right over me, every other run it would just follow in its wake dodging SFL
Last edited by skyline385 on Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#425 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:39 pm

So much for trending away from Florida...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#426 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:41 pm

It just turned and made a second landfall in PBC, this run...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#427 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:43 pm

Well it is the 18z. So let's see what the 00z shows of course.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#428 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:44 pm

Yeah thankfully out 9 or 10 days. Would of course be a friggin disaster for S Florida with it meandering around for two days.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#429 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:46 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 18Z GFS has a much different pattern over the CONUS vs earlier runs with more ridging in the east! This could get interesting. Will the TC stop and turn west soon?


Well, it ended up turning west into the Gulf but it took a long time to do so.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#430 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:46 pm

ronjon wrote:Yeah thankfully out 9 or 10 days. Would of course be a friggin disaster for S Florida with it meandering around for two days.

More like 3 solid days..
Last edited by Spacecoast on Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#431 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:46 pm

skyline385 wrote:It just turned and made a second landfall in PBC, this run...


These storms just don't behave like that. Yes there have been some historic track quirkiness but the VAST majority of storms tracks are not this. Let's not forget that this is the HAPPY HOUR 18z and on a FRIDAY!!!
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#432 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:47 pm

Maybe the GFS P wasn’t so crazy after all :double:

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#433 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:48 pm

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#434 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:48 pm

Looks like the GFS just got a dose of those drugs the Para was recently using. However, it is definitely a plausible scenario. Gets lifted just enough out the Caribbean before ridging builds back in. Then it will wait for the next trough to sweep it out. It is not uncommon to see storms in the NW Bahamas and vicinity of South Florida meander around for a while. Joaquin and Dorian immediately come to mind.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#435 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:48 pm

And it ends up in the SE GOM with even stronger 500 mb ridging building north of it. Quite entertaining I must say.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#436 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:51 pm

The ensembles will be quite interesting. Ultimately, this is just like everything else we've been seeing in the long range. Take with a huge boulder of salt. Two things that are going to be important to establish is where it decides to come together in the Caribbean, and what eventual evolution of the second system in the subtropics is.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#437 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:52 pm

ronjon wrote:And it ends up in the SE GOM with even stronger 500 mb ridging building north of it. Quite entertaining I must say.


I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't done with Florida on this run. Front should sweep in and take it Northeast eventually.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#438 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:56 pm

GFS thinks it's August with that building ridge :lol:
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#439 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:56 pm

Its in the GOM now strengthening away lol
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#440 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:59 pm

That ridge is ridiculous, and it will probably pivot back after the ridge weakens.
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