WPAC: SAUDEL - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

96W.INVEST

WWJP27 RJTD 160000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 144E WEST 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

Interesting GFS typhoon ensembles


but meh Euro...?

[euro6208]

Invest 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 16, 2020:

Location: 7.1°N 144.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

850mb vorticity has increased big time compared to 12 hours ago.

Looks like there is a anticyclone over the system providing very low wind shear and decreasing and low shear before landfall.

[aspen]

This actually looks pretty good, like something that’ll become stronger than what the models are showing.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

This actually looks pretty good, like something that’ll become stronger than what the models are showing.

Indeed. Something you would see in the Atlantic this year where models say it will remain weak and not strengthen but somehow strengthens and supported by recon.

We need that magic number of 1.0 or 1.5 dvorak for a TS......

[ElectricStorm]

This is one of a few invests this year that looks like it may have a chance and enough time to become something significant

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161124Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. A 161123Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A WEAK, SLIGHTLY OBLONG LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS LUZON, POTENTIALLY
REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Getting that look

Could this be the strongest so far this year?

[mrbagyo]

looks really good on IR but on the surface - bleh, not yet (but things can change quickly).

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 141.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 425
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 170328Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS coming in stronger, 999 and 998 mb, before Luzon landfall.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

Yap Island - latitude: 09-29N, longitude: 138-05E,

METAR: PTYA 171250Z 00000KT 12SM FEW016 BKN120 OVC300 26/26 A2974 RMK SLP071 T02590256

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 170906
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 8.3N

D. 139.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. >2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Hayabusa]