Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

Here are the tracks for the Euro. As was mentioned does have more activity and some stronger runs. Also, further west with most of the tracks. Interesting that some of the tracks originate from South Caribbean and some from NW Caribbean.

12z
https://i.ibb.co/sFSSmx8/ecens-2020-10-15-12-Z-240-30-292-262-03-12-92-293-573-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

00z
https://i.ibb.co/jz0hQkk/ecens-2020-10-16-00-Z-240-30-292-262-03-12-92-293-573-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Further west? Looks east of the recent 06z GEFS Ensembles.

[underthwx]

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

It's a Gen Z term, I know since, well...


I'm Gen Z and use it a lot... lol.

Man, I suddenly feel old, I thought I was more hip than that...

[gfsperpendicular]

GFS para has been very consistent with this weird looping solution. If it verifies it would be a massive coup. It would also be one of the strangest tracks in recent memory. So I wouldn't bet on it

[tomatkins]

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

Well not this time, runs it all the way up to Houston before it turns around.

[underthwx]

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

Well not this time, runs it all the way up to Houston before it turns around.

Bite your tongue..don't jinx us over on the west side....l o l

[underthwx]

Which model(s) are the ones to watch on this system?

[aspen]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

[kevin]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

It's almost like 2020 saw the 'Will 2020 reach hyperactive status in terms of ACE?' thread and said challenge accepted.

[TheStormExpert]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

I know there’s still some high OHC down in the Western Caribbean but I believe the GFS-P is on crack!

Though time will tell if conditions are favorable enough for an intense hurricane down there. We already saw Delta rapidly intensify to Cat.4 strength in that region.

[AutoPenalti]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

It's almost like 2020 saw the 'Will 2020 reach hyperactive status in terms of ACE?' thread and said challenge accepted.

Does 968 convert to 920's? Because... that's what I saw on GFS 2.0

[underthwx]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

That is unsettling...I'm not picking on you Aspen, but can you explain what the GFS para is please?

[kevin]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

It's almost like 2020 saw the 'Will 2020 reach hyperactive status in terms of ACE?' thread and said challenge accepted.

Does 968 convert to 920's? Because... that's what I saw on GFS 2.0

You should probably ask aspen instead of me, but maybe he refers to yesterday's 18z GFS-Para run which had 929 mbar, but that one slammed into Central America so it doesn't have as long of a lifetime as some of the other runs. Maybe he means the 06z run from yesterday which had a peak of 934 mbar before reaching Cuba.

[aspen]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

That is unsettling...I'm not picking on you Aspen, but can you explain what the GFS para is please?

To put it simply, it’s a new version of the GFS model.

[tomatkins]

Every single run, the GFS-Para is determined to make Zeta one of if not the highest October ACE maker in history. That’s nearly a full week as a major hurricane — easily 30-40+ ACE despite not getting down into the 920s like yesterday’s runs.

That is unsettling...I'm not picking on you Aspen, but can you explain what the GFS para is please?

The GFS has an operational version - the normal GFS. But at the same time, they are always upgrading it. The GFS parallel, to my understanding is the next upgrade candidate in line. A year or two ago they did a complete overhaul, and so they started offering the public model data from both the current and new versions in parallel. And apparently they decided to continue with that as they make smaller upgrades.

IN theory the new version should be better than the current version - its supposed to be an upgrade after all. But it might be better in some ways (maybe it diagnoses the 500 mb heights better) and worse in others (too rapid in cyclogenesis).

Either way, its basically just another model to throw on the pile, with its own biases, and such.

[toad strangler]

LOL the Para sends a Cyclone to the TX coast on NOVEMBER 1st

[ElectricStorm]

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

It's a Gen Z term, I know since, well...


I'm Gen Z and use it a lot... lol.

Same here... Lol

[SFLcane]

Would like to here wxman57’s recent thoughts on this system.

[CourierPR]

Would like to here wxman57’s recent thoughts on this system.

Yes, and where is Aric Dunn?

[AutoPenalti]

Would like to here wxman57’s recent thoughts on this system.

Isn't he in Disney?

[SFLcane]

Would like to here wxman57’s recent thoughts on this system.

Isn't he in Disney?

Lol I think so. Either way the gfs is rolling. Will it continue shifting westward?