Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS trending further east due to the very active west-east pattern - we shall see, but it's looking better. P.S. I'd stay away from those crazy experimental models that only give people indigestion. I'm sure the NHC puts little stock in any of those. The GFS has done reasonably well this season, and is even better with mid-latitude systems that come into play at this time of the year.

The GFS has not trended east this run! Don’t know which run you’re looking at but it has definitely trended weaker, AGAIN.

Wonder if it has something to do with that random major hurricane it spins up in the Subtropical Atlantic?

[aspen]

The 18z GFS took all of the Happy Hour fuel from Zeta and put it into Cat 2 Hurricane Epsilon.

[Frank2]

What's important is what it does as it comes past our latitude - the system on this run is very disorganized and further east...

[SouthFLTropics]

Since everyone likes to obsess over those 240 hour plus runs, here is the last 19 runs of the GFS starting at hour 348 at 06z on 10/11 and concluding with hour 240 of today's 18z run.

[SFLcane]

It’s definitely trending weaker last couple of runs. We will see if Cmc, para start trending this way also

[ElectricStorm]

The 18z GFS trending further east due to the very active west-east pattern - we shall see, but it's looking better. P.S. I'd stay away from those crazy experimental or poor-performing models that only give people indigestion. I'm sure the NHC puts little stock in any of those. The GFS has done reasonably well this season, and is even better with mid-latitude systems that come into play at this time of the year.

The GFS, like the rest of the models, has not been very good this year...

[SFLcane]

Euro has a broad gyre similar to the 18z GFS. Those intense runs might be over

[Loveweather12]

Wouldn’t the storm go more west then?

Euro has a broad gyre similar to the 18z GFS. Those intense runs might be over

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm always a little wary of the GFS when it comes to storms interacting with troughs; it has a nasty habit of randomly splitting and stringing out the vortex into multiple tropical cyclones exactly like what is being shown on the 18z.

[ElectricStorm]

Euro has a broad gyre similar to the 18z GFS. Those intense runs might be over

They might be but it's still so far out that it could easily change again.... Hopefully it stays this way though

[aspen]

It’s definitely trending weaker last couple of runs. We will see if Cmc, para start trending this way also

If the Para continues its intensity trend, its 18z run is gonna be very...interesting.

[chaser1]

I don't know guys... I think I'd much rather the GFS be showing some direct hits at 9 days versus the consistent through the Bahamas track. At 9 days I think we all know that probably won't verify. If it does, it's a big coup for the GFS.

ABSOLUTELY.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro has a broad gyre similar to the 18z GFS. Those intense runs might be over

Very questionable solution on the 18z GFS. Look at the random piece of energy that splits off and develops in the Bahamas. This is not shown on any of the models and is a bias very commonly seen on the GFS with monsoonal systems interacting with troughs.

[SconnieCane]

Euro has a broad gyre similar to the 18z GFS. Those intense runs might be over

Very questionable solution on the 18z GFS. Look at the random piece of energy that splits off and develops in the Bahamas. This is not shown on any of the models and is a bias very commonly seen on the GFS with monsoonal systems interacting with troughs.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/fTs408UWIxLFruHuw3/giphy.gif

I love it when someone- anyone- even though they might be totally off base- actually makes an effort to diagnose what a model might be doing on a particular run instead of posting some funky track and/or intense hurricane making landfall on a city and declaring "it's on crack."

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GEFS somewhat favors a central Cuba to Bahamas track similar to the 12Z EPS for any W Car that may form. This is good for S FL but this is still much too close for comfort for S FL this far out, unfortunately. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst in case the trend reverses:

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour GEFS favors a central Cuba to Bahamas track similar to the 12Z EPS. This is a good trend for S FL but this is still much too close for comfort for S FL this far out, unfortunately. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst in case the trend reverses:

https://i.imgur.com/HsjPWMv.png

MUCH TOO CLOSE at over 200 hours. Thx for posting that

[SFLcane]

Happy Hour GEFS favors a central Cuba to Bahamas track similar to the 12Z EPS. This is a good trend for S FL but this is still much too close for comfort for S FL this far out, unfortunately. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst in case the trend reverses:

https://i.imgur.com/HsjPWMv.png

MUCH TOO CLOSE at over 200 hours. Thx for posting that

This is true not being targeted by the gfs at 200hrs. Ensembles this run like the op favoring central Cuba/ Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible through the middle of next week while it
remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible through the middle of next week while it
remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Nearly stationary?

[emeraldislenc]

Not trying to be rude, but I am getting tired of the phrase "Happy Hour" in some of the posts about different models. I really enjoy this site, but that phrased is really over used.