Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

Per the climo/history of TCs on record with genesis in the 2nd half of Oct that went on to hit FL since 1851, there have been 7 that formed in the Gulf vs 5 in the W Car. So, don't be surprised if this ends up first becoming a TD in the Gulf as opposed to W Car and that it then comes back E to NE into the stretch from the Panhandle to Tampa area. These 7 that did just that:

- Love of 1950 (Big Bend)
- #6 of 1904 (Panhandle')
- #9 of 1892 (Tampa)
- #16 of 1887 (Tampa)
- #7 of 1877 (Big Bend)
- #5 of 1872 (Tampa)
- #8 of 1859 (Tampa)(only H landfall of these 7 as other 6 were TS at landfall)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1316815545321369602

[aspen]

926 mbar from GFS-P!

Zeta goes further west due to the lack of a weakness in the ridge from Epsilon, but eventually it starts to turn to the N/NE.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro is coming late to the party as usual this season.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1316816230930620418

[TheStormExpert]

926 mbar from GFS-P!

Zeta goes further west due to the lack of a weakness in the ridge from Epsilon, but eventually it starts to turn to the N/NE.

12z GFS-P is pretty much nearly identical to the 06z run just south of Cuba instead of north. Goes east and then back west through 270hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 2.0 goes East, just south of Cuba, then building ridge shoves it back West with some resistance.

[tomatkins]

Para takes a week to update.

Now up to 270 hrs - doing a loop between Cuba and the Caymans for a couple of days as like a cat4/5 storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

When was the last time the Caymans faced a significant threat??? It’s been a while for sure.


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[AutoPenalti]

Noticable difference between the 12z and 06z is that the ridge almost looks like an Omega block.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS W Car TC members favor the crossing of C to E Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas:

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 2.0 doesn't know what to do - as it should.

[gfsperpendicular]

12z para Dorian's the Caymans

[aspen]

12Z EPS W Car TC members favor the crossing C to E Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas:

https://i.imgur.com/ak0RC3A.png

I think several of the northern members are the subtropical system, which recurves close to Bermuda’s longitude around that time on several runs.

[SFLcane]

12Z EPS W Car TC members favor the crossing of C to E Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas:

https://i.imgur.com/ak0RC3A.png

Good luck eps has been nothing short of horrible this season.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1316815545321369602?

Wait, TWO cyclones in the W Caribbean?

[caneseddy]

After spinning for an entire week around the Caymans it finally ejects NE over just west of Andros on 10/30 on the Para

[SFLcane]

After spinning for an entire week around the Caymans it finally ejects NE over just west of Andros on 10/30 on the Para

That’s just to close to call for SFL.

[SouthFLTropics]

After spinning for an entire week around the Caymans it finally ejects NE over just west of Andros on 10/30 on the Para

That’s just to close to call for SFL.

Especially at 300+ hours...


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[aspen]

921 mbar on the 12z GFS-P run. Today’s Happy Hour run is going to be absolutely insane...

[AxaltaRacing24]

After spinning for an entire week around the Caymans it finally ejects NE over just west of Andros on 10/30 on the Para

That’s just to close to call for SFL.

Especially at 300+ hours...


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crapshoot.