Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Model results for Zeta are likely to become way more variable now that most models have picked up on the likelihood of Epsilon developing. We’ll need to wait for Epsilon to develop this weekend to have a better idea on how it would weaken the ridge and/or influence Zeta.

[SFLcane]

12z Canadian...

[aspen]

Someone please explain how the 12z ICON develops Zeta in the SE Gulf.

[AutoPenalti]

This thread about to drop dead in a couple of minutes...

[CourierPR]

This is the farthest east run yet, encouraging run for us in Florida

If it were to verify, and that is highly questionable at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Someone please explain how the 12z ICON develops Zeta in the SE Gulf.

The ICON is a lost cause!

[TheStormExpert]

This is the farthest east run yet, encouraging run for us in Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/Qdpw3skv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-264.gif

Most runs have been this far east, but the GFS has been MOSTLY consistent on a storm or hurricane ejecting NE across East or Central Cuba. Last nights 18z run was an outlier. Having a -NAO lends this more credence in my opinion.

[underthwx]

I feel that this system is definitely something to watch in the coming days, if I lived in Florida. Wouldn't a system that forms down there, track towards Florida, perhaps influenced by a front?

[TheStormExpert]

I feel that this system is definitely something to watch in the coming days, if I lived in Florida. Wouldn't a system that forms down there, track towards Florida, perhaps influenced by a front?

Unless it can get into the the far NW Caribbean before ejecting NE and threat to Florida seems limited. Besides the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative as I’ve been saying so an escape route through Cuba and The Bahamas seems more plausible. We’re also more likely today than a few days ago to have a weakness form thanks to the Subtropical area that could grab the name Epsilon.

[psyclone]

A late season storm missing florida to the east and south is very common (think Michelle 2001). From the start I have suspected that any risk to the state is more likely to be weighted south and east...but the higher risk is likely to reside east and south of the state. We shall see but that is definitely an option. Post Delta... it's become easy to not worry so much about cane season unless and until there is compelling evidence to the contrary. So far that philosophy is working nicely but we will keep checking in.

[Loveweather12]

You know I’m going to laugh if this storm moves closer or threatens FL & I live in FL. The way most on here are discounting a storm & telling people to come back in June when a Low hasn’t even formed yet frankly surprises me seeing the seniority on This page. Shouldn’t we know by now that storms & models change drastically. Wow.. we can’t let our guard down. Keep saying the so called shields are up & watch a hurricane make landfall in places some are saying won’t happen forever. Wow I’m shocked but maybe it’s just me.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Someone please explain how the 12z ICON develops Zeta in the SE Gulf.

The answer is in the question ICON is trash

[blp]

I think the CMC is the most reasonable. I think GFS is ramping it up too quickly.

12z GEFS trending weaker and more west.

[CourierPR]

You know I’m going to laugh if this storm moves closer or threatens FL & I live in FL. The way most on here are discounting a storm & telling people to come back in June when a Low hasn’t even formed yet frankly surprises me seeing the seniority on This page. Shouldn’t we know by now that storms & models change drastically. Wow.. we can’t let our guard down. Keep saying the so called shields are up & watch a hurricane make landfall in places some are saying won’t happen forever. Wow I’m shocked but maybe it’s just me.

I agree with you. Here we are on the 15th with some predicting a clear miss for Florida from a storm that hasn't formed yet but may form around the 19th or 20th. This and the overuse of the word "bury" boggles my mind.

[chris_fit]

Anyone's Game. Operational is E of the mean by far.

[Craters]

What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

https://i.imgur.com/0MIWjKq.gif

That track reminds me of the flying saucer pushing the Washington Monument around in "Mars Attacks!"

[plasticup]

This thread about to drop dead in a couple of minutes...

What do you mean?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ronjon]

Someone please explain how the 12z ICON develops Zeta in the SE Gulf.

The answer is in the question ICON is trash

Its develops it from 93L.

[AutoPenalti]

This thread about to drop dead in a couple of minutes...

What do you mean?

Check the posts above you. The same people seem to reiterate the same thing. Can't verify something that isn't there yet, hell, even the upper level environment isn't set in stone.. We are just gambling at this point but normally when the threat to Florida is "off", or when people are "breathing a sigh of relief" we get that drop in attention.