Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#81 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:26 am

What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

Image
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145302
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:28 am

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1316762041311354881


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#83 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:32 am

chris_fit wrote:What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

https://i.imgur.com/0MIWjKq.gif

Hilarious how it just disregards every part of FL except the Keys...
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 551
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:
Contact jconsor

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#84 Postby jconsor » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:47 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1316757298346430464


3 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#85 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:48 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
chris_fit wrote:What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

https://i.imgur.com/0MIWjKq.gif

Hilarious how it just disregards every part of FL except the Keys...


Peninsula Florida deflector shield locked in on that run. Tries so hard to landfall but just can’t even showing a SE movement in the Gulf to avoid landfall which I never have seen. Most unrealistic run of the year. :lol: :eek:
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#86 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:56 am



Thanks yaakov very interesting your thoughts on potential tc development down in the Caribbean.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#87 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:04 am

SFLcane wrote:


Thanks yaakov very interesting your thoughts on potential tc development down in the Caribbean.


I would think though the second system the gfs is showing north of the islands might have some implications in terms track for anything that develops down there. Complicated

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#88 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:08 am

Look how close together they are...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#89 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:09 am

Another system forms to the NE of Epsilon and would likely snatch the name Zeta, making this Eta. That’s assuming the second subtropical system becomes a reality.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#90 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:11 am

Second system much weaker on this run might not tug on it as much as it did on the 12z run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#91 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:15 am

quite a bit weaker on this run through 173 hours
0 likes   
Top
SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#92 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:22 am

SFLcane wrote:Second system much weaker on this run might not tug on it as much as it did on the 12z run.


? At this point 12Z should be the most recent run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#93 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:23 am

~9 Days out, 210 hours, MUCH weaker (997mb vs 981mb) than the 06z run - roughly same location - From here on out, it's fantasy again.
Last edited by chris_fit on Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#94 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:23 am

Trof is weaker this run also.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#95 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:26 am

There it goes.. Second system will tug it NE away.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#96 Postby boca » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:33 am

The Florida area will most likely escape this system due to the constant troughs digging south and pulling everything NE on to winter weather.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#97 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:34 am

Looks like Epsilon weakens the ridge and helps draw Zeta to the north. Zeta’s track and intensity is basically the same as yesterday’s 12z GFS run.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#98 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:35 am

There's currently a strong -NAO so the only way anything will affect the FL Peninsula is if it is in the NW Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba or The Yucatán peninsula.

Not much support from the GFS and its ensembles for anything to affect Florida.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#99 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:37 am

No chance getting further north with that other TC there.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#100 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:40 am

This is the farthest east run yet, encouraging run for us in Florida:

Image
1 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, johngaltfla, SconnieCane and 41 guests