Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

The 18z GFS-Para is slightly further north this run, just enough to miss Honduras. It has an intensifying hurricane heading towards Belize by 210 hours.

Edit: and there’s a Cat 3 landfall in Belize at 234 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS P buries it into the Yucatan / Central America:

[ElectricStorm]

12Z GFS P buries it into the Yucatan / Central America:

https://i.postimg.cc/fRySczTX/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh192-258.gif

That still gets pretty strong though

[gatorcane]

A lot of ridging over the Gulf and Florida on the GFS-P. Looks a lot like September or even August on the model. Note it also doesn’t really do anything with the subtropical potential in the SW Atlantic which also could allow for some more ridging.

[ElectricStorm]

We've got a big time cold front coming through tonight here in Oklahoma. I don't know how far down there it's supposed to get though. I would think it would at least get far enough to influence the storm. Anyone else have any ideas on this?

[Jr0d]

So back on topic... The 06z Para has finally decided to load a few more frames. It dares to be different and sends it into the Yucatan like its earlier Greek cousin Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/L573rD2.gif

...there is a still a feature off the western Bahamas/ Xay Sal on the last frame so its still showing something in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys.

As always, until we have a low develop all these model runs just a game of pin the tail on the donkey, however it is becoming increasingly likely a low will develop and find a favorable environment somewhere in the West Caribbean.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS weaker and misses FL to the S

[otowntiger]

0z GFS weaker and misses FL to the S
https://i.imgur.com/D5sYpOC.gif

Boom! Lol! Woke up this morning and figured this is what happened because this thread had died down quick. Let’s hope this is what plays out- weaker and well to East. Win/win!

[otowntiger]

Might have more posts than Laura and Delta combined .

Florida peeps take a lot of heat for only posting when Florida is in the storm mix, I’d argue Florida peeps post the most when Florida is not in the storm mix. Kingarabian gets props too!!!

It's just human nature .... watch how quiet this thread becomes if the next succession of runs go way E, into CA, or POOF lol .... we are still so far out

. And that’s just what happened

[chris_fit]

0z GFS weaker and misses FL to the S
https://i.imgur.com/D5sYpOC.gif

Boom! Lol! Woke up this morning and figured this is what happened because this thread had died down quick. Let’s hope this is what plays out- weaker and well to East. Win/win!

Let's see if the 06z wakes everyone up

[jlauderdal]

Florida peeps take a lot of heat for only posting when Florida is in the storm mix, I’d argue Florida peeps post the most when Florida is not in the storm mix. Kingarabian gets props too!!!

It's just human nature .... watch how quiet this thread becomes if the next succession of runs go way E, into CA, or POOF lol .... we are still so far out

. And that’s just what happened

I-4 south was the only real audience for this potential system and now that is being crushed to the south and east...will see today

06z running up to 150h

[chris_fit]

Let's see if the 06z wakes everyone up

I think it might, coming in quite a bit further W and S of the 12z run so far through 190 hours.

[SFLcane]

00z Para back to a Wilma type. Movement back west is nonsense

[SFLcane]

06z is stronger already...ready to RI

[chris_fit]

06z GFS so far.... much stronger than 00Z but moving EAST into Jamaica!

[chris_fit]

And it's outa here - moving NE through Eastern Cuba - Similar track to the 00Z but stronger.

[SFLcane]

And it's outa here - moving NE through Eastern Cuba - Similar track to the 00Z but stronger.

Yep development further north essentially yanked it out of the Caribbean. Paloma

[jlauderdal]

Trend is your friend florida

[SFLcane]

Trend is your friend florida

It bumped into the force Field!

[otowntiger]

It's just human nature .... watch how quiet this thread becomes if the next succession of runs go way E, into CA, or POOF lol .... we are still so far out

. And that’s just what happened

I-4 south was the only real audience for this potential system and now that is being crushed to the south and east...will see today

06z running up to 150h

. The I-4 to south Florida crowd make up the vast majority of posters on this board- so you can bet that if there is a threat to those areas and those areas alone, this board will be hopping like no other time this year.