San Juan AFD of low level trough in caribbean

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

All that convection south of Puerto Rico and the mona passage is related to a low level trough or surface trough.Shear is too strong to allow it to get going and develop into a tropical feature.Here we will have another trough this time an upper level one arriving on mid-week this one interacting with a tropical wave from the NE moving SW and that is the area of convection now NE of the leewards by 500 miles.

[Rainband]

Yeah in our discussion it says it will bring heavy rain to Florida this week as the low east of florida moves into the central GOM and elongates..it will slow down the flow will turn se and draw the carribean moisture northwest.

[cycloneye]

Yep this is the one for your neck of the woods down the road Johnnathan so more rain in that area.

[Rainband]

Just what we need..it's been a dry october

[cycloneye]

Johnnathan I hope that rain go your way because I think that the florida area is more dry in the comming months am I right about that?

[Rainband]

Johnnathan I hope that rain go your way because I think that the florida area is more dry in the comming months am I right about that?

Yes it's our dry season

[ColdFront77]

Yes, that's right (as Johnathan mentioned), its our dry season here in [central] Florida. Any cold front that can move through with moisture is wonderful in the next seven months.

High pressure ridging into the Puerto Rico (area) will certainly put a southeasterly flow west of the beautiful island causing the feature in the Caribbean to move northwestward toward and into Florida.