ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

I too think it will become a Cat 4, and will be at least a Cat 3 at landfall.

I'm sticking with my Cat 4 prediction till the end lol... Or just whenever it appears to get to the point where it won't be possible to strengthen anymore

just the fact that the pressure drops have slowed down quite a bit compared to earlier, is usually a sign that strengthening is plateauing

It's still falling though and Cat 4's can have pressures in the low 950's. Just like a few days ago

[GCANE]

Rain rates seem to be dropping some.
Good indication latent energy transfer has peaked out.
Eye RH has increased to 60% from 49% hour and half ago.
RH in NE eye is 100%
RH in SW eye is 71%

[Steve]

For the post above asking about surge, you can see the chart at this link.

https://www.nola.com/image_788d14fc-098 ... b7306.html

Here’s another look.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kplctv ... utType=amp

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm sticking with my Cat 4 prediction till the end lol... Or just whenever it appears to get to the point where it won't be possible to strengthen anymore

just the fact that the pressure drops have slowed down quite a bit compared to earlier, is usually a sign that strengthening is plateauing

It's still falling though and Cat 4's can have pressures in the low 950's. Just like a few days ago

I just think it's going to run out of time for a Cat 4. The appearance really isn't impressing me that much. Has a bit of a squashed appearance. MAYBE 125, but I think that 115 might be as high as it will get.

[GCANE]

A large 4000 CAPE pool has set in south of the CoC.
Perfect spot to set up a feeder band in the next few hours.
Watching if it starts to entrain this.
If so, could get another burst of latent energy transfer.

[supercane4867]

[ConvergenceZone]

Another thing to keep in mind is that 115mph is a long ways away from a Cat 4 when it's such a big storm. And that's also why the intensification has been so slow.

[GCANE]

Big increase in helicity

[PTrackerLA]

Let's hope Delta has plateaued again but even coming in as a cat 2 will cause major storm surge exceeding Laura is most places outside of the Creole/Cameron/Grand Chenier. We are riding Delta out at home here in south Lafayette. This time around I have a good generator to power the fridge, fans, some lights and I picked up a window unit to make sleeping comfortable in the bedroom. I didn't "prepare" as much as I should for Laura as I was just shell-shocked at the evolution of the storm and knew we would be out of the core but we still lost power for 12 hours. Expecting be out of power for several days or more if we receive gusts to 100mph. I have 2 sheets of plywood to put on exposed windows in the front just in case Delta cranks up to a strong 3 or 4 and travels on the right side of the cone. Let's hope the storm can somehow spare the Lake Charles area, I'm sick to my stomach for my friends there who have just recently returned. Stay strong Louisiana!

[wx98]

Extrap. pressure on the second NOAA pass is not any lower than the first pass over an hour ago.

[aspen]

Seems like Delta might be leveling out in terms of pressure, but if it continues to develop deep convection all around the eye, then some of the higher FL winds could translate down to the surface overnight.

[Blinhart]

I've never seen a storm so bottom heavy.

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks like Delta is moving much slower
than 12mph.

[GCANE]

Looks like its getting connected to the EPAC

[ColdMiser123]

0z Best Track up to 105 kt, pressure the same at 956 mb.

[ozonepete]

Eye looks to be closing off on satellite now.

[GCANE]

Last time the lead tower crashed into the eyewall.
Doubt that will happen again.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1314382670403645440

[South Texas Storms]

Let's hope Delta has plateaued again but even coming in as a cat 2 will cause major storm surge exceeding Laura is most places outside of the Creole/Cameron/Grand Chenier. We are riding Delta out at home here in south Lafayette. This time around I have a good generator to power the fridge, fans, some lights and I picked up a window unit to make sleeping comfortable in the bedroom. I didn't "prepare" as much as I should for Laura as I was just shell-shocked at the evolution of the storm and knew we would be out of the core but we still lost power for 12 hours. Expecting be out of power for several days or more if we receive gusts to 100mph. I have 2 sheets of plywood to put on exposed windows in the front just in case Delta cranks up to a strong 3 or 4 and travels on the right side of the cone. Let's hope the storm can somehow spare the Lake Charles area, I'm sick to my stomach for my friends there who have just recently returned. Stay strong Louisiana!

Stay safe over there! Praying for yall as you go through your second hurricane in two months. We really lucked out here in Houston as just a small westward shift in the tracks would bring significant impacts here. Hopefully this is the last hurricane threat for land areas across the Atlantic basin this year.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/r2AF5R1.gif

It's presentation continues to look increasingly CCC-ish.