ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

More like NNNW

So it's moving at 12 MPH NNW now instead of NW, so the turn as slowly started.

[Stormgodess]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

Just came across this on Twitter, praying thats true

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1314349471027863552?s=20

You have to take an area average of the hurricane to determine how much of that is because of the hurricane itself, versus how much of that it because of the mean environmental flow. Taking an area average cancels the wind from the hurricane out with itself, and you're left with the shear from the surrounding environment. When you do that, you get closer to 15-20 kt of environmental shear, which is still elevated compared to where it is now, but not catastrophic for the storm like >35 kt of shear would be.

https://i.imgur.com/EeNWtXA.png

I almost didnt want to like this post, but I DO appreciate the information... Thank you

[edu2703]

Any idea what the buoys in the Gulf are showing for sea rise and waves???

 https://twitter.com/wrighthydromet/status/1314357709081255938

[Stormgodess]

Since the storm is giving the appearance that this has probably peaked, they may tweak the winds down to 105 mph at landfall, similar too how they had it before.... But keep in mind, it wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. Even if the peak has occurred, I don't think any weakening will occur until tomorrow morning......So stay safe everyone!

Am I seeing it "tightening" up becoming more compact? or is that just something with the type of radar Im looking at?

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1529653467422526

[ColdMiser123]

Just came across this on Twitter, praying thats true

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1314349471027863552?s=20

You have to take an area average of the hurricane to determine how much of that is because of the hurricane itself, versus how much of that it because of the mean environmental flow. Taking an area average cancels the wind from the hurricane out with itself, and you're left with the shear from the surrounding environment. When you do that, you get closer to 15-20 kt of environmental shear, which is still elevated compared to where it is now, but not catastrophic for the storm like >35 kt of shear would be.

https://i.imgur.com/EeNWtXA.png

I almost didnt want to like this post, but I DO appreciate the information... Thank you

The good news is there should almost certainly be some kind of weakening between now and landfall due to a combination of higher shear and lower sea surface temperatures, but the question is how much.

That has implications for wind impacts, but significant surge is already becoming locked in. Regardless of exact landfall intensity, the key takeaway point is that a dangerous, high impact storm is on the way for the Louisiana coast, and people should be prepared.

[Ian2401]

hot towers popping on east side of center... will see if they can hold up

[galaxy401]

Since the storm is giving the appearance that this has probably peaked, they may tweak the winds down to 105 mph at landfall, similar too how they had it before.... But keep in mind, it wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. Even if the peak has occurred, I don't think any weakening will occur until tomorrow morning......So stay safe everyone!

Premature to say that right now. Pressure is still dropping between advisories.

[ElectricStorm]

Since the storm is giving the appearance that this has probably peaked, they may tweak the winds down to 105 mph at landfall, similar too how they had it before.... But keep in mind, it wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. Even if the peak has occurred, I don't think any weakening will occur until tomorrow morning......So stay safe everyone!

I don't think it's peaked yet. Pressure still dropping and it appears new convection is firing. It will probably strengthen steadily until morning before peaking...IMO

[UTSARoadrunner4]

With Delta possibly making landfall east of Lake Charles, wouldn't that leave them out of the worst of the storm surge?

The storm surge area will be worse most likely in Vermillion Bay, but for Lake Charles it is the wind and rain that is the main worries.

Some may not see it this way, but this is definitely a blessing for them to not have to deal with storm surge coming up the Calcasieu River. I am curious though on the total estimates for storm surge impact on places like New Iberia, Morgan City, Delcambre, & Abbeville. A storm this big, I would think that storm surge would be anywhere from 12-16 feet. Is there something I'm missing that could possibly keep storm surge lower in these areas?

[ConvergenceZone]

You have to take an area average of the hurricane to determine how much of that is because of the hurricane itself, versus how much of that it because of the mean environmental flow. Taking an area average cancels the wind from the hurricane out with itself, and you're left with the shear from the surrounding environment. When you do that, you get closer to 15-20 kt of environmental shear, which is still elevated compared to where it is now, but not catastrophic for the storm like >35 kt of shear would be.

https://i.imgur.com/EeNWtXA.png

I almost didnt want to like this post, but I DO appreciate the information... Thank you

The good news is there should almost certainly be some kind of weakening between now and landfall due to a combination of higher shear and lower sea surface temperatures, but the question is how much.

That has implications for wind impacts, but significant surge is already becoming locked in. Regardless of exact landfall intensity, the key takeaway point is that a dangerous, high impact storm is on the way for the Louisiana coast, and people should be prepared.

Good question! How much of a number will the high shear and cooler waters do on it? I'm glad to see it's strength topping off earlier than predicted though. That should allow for even greater weakening. I'm really hoping for a Cat 1 at landfall at this point, and it's very possible do the high shear forecasted. But as ya said, the surge is still going to be bad....

[sphelps8681]

More like NNNW

So it's moving at 12 MPH NNW now instead of NW, so the turn as slowly started.

Local met know says landfall Creole, La.

[Do_For_Love]

For a storm that has been a major hurricane for a lot of it's lifespan, seems like Delta has not had a clear eye very often.

[aspen]

If those hot towers on the east side become as big as the ones in the N and W, we could see some of those Cat 4 FL winds try to translate down to the surface. Probably not fully, but some consistent hot towers could lead to 105-110 kt SFMR at the most.

[Blinhart]

More like NNNW

So it's moving at 12 MPH NNW now instead of NW, so the turn as slowly started.

Local met know says landfall Creole, La.

Creole or Grand Chenier seems like the likely landfall, but will be moving NNE or NE at landfall so will be moving away from Lake Charles.

[ElectricStorm]

If those hot towers on the east side become as big as the ones in the N and W, we could see some of those Cat 4 FL winds try to translate down to the surface. Probably not fully, but some consistent hot towers could lead to 105-110 kt SFMR at the most.

I still think it could get to Cat 4 before weakening a bit before landfall.

[Blinhart]

If those hot towers on the east side become as big as the ones in the N and W, we could see some of those Cat 4 FL winds try to translate down to the surface. Probably not fully, but some consistent hot towers could lead to 105-110 kt SFMR at the most.

I still think it could get to Cat 4 before weakening a bit before landfall.

I too think it will become a Cat 4, and will be at least a Cat 3 at landfall.

[GCANE]

Showing up on 18dBZ Echo Top

[ElectricStorm]

If those hot towers on the east side become as big as the ones in the N and W, we could see some of those Cat 4 FL winds try to translate down to the surface. Probably not fully, but some consistent hot towers could lead to 105-110 kt SFMR at the most.

I still think it could get to Cat 4 before weakening a bit before landfall.

I too think it will become a Cat 4, and will be at least a Cat 3 at landfall.

I'm sticking with my Cat 4 prediction till the end lol... Or just whenever it appears to get to the point where it won't be possible to strengthen anymore

[cheezyWXguy]

Since the storm is giving the appearance that this has probably peaked, they may tweak the winds down to 105 mph at landfall, similar too how they had it before.... But keep in mind, it wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. Even if the peak has occurred, I don't think any weakening will occur until tomorrow morning......So stay safe everyone!

I don't think it's peaked yet. Pressure still dropping and it appears new convection is firing. It will probably strengthen steadily until morning before peaking...IMO

Agreed, this is the deepest convection I’ve seen it wrap around the ne side all day

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think it could get to Cat 4 before weakening a bit before landfall.

I too think it will become a Cat 4, and will be at least a Cat 3 at landfall.

I'm sticking with my Cat 4 prediction till the end lol... Or just whenever it appears to get to the point where it won't be possible to strengthen anymore

just the fact that the pressure drops have slowed down quite a bit compared to earlier, is usually a sign that strengthening is plateauing