ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

Cirrus debris from the towers reaching higher up in the troposphere is obscuring the eye.
Its not weakening, its strengthening.

WHAT!!!

[Stormgodess]

The deepest, coldest convection is still upshear. As long as that happens, Delta should probably continue to intensify.

Any chance of reaching Cat 4 again??

[GCANE]

That tower sent out an impressive shock wave across the CDO.
Pretty much like an atomic bomb exploding.
Seeing the maximum latent energy input that was forecast to happen about now.

[aspen]

I feel like Delta is less concerned about having a clear eye and more concerned with trying to hold the record for the most persistent <-90C convection in the Atlantic.

[Steve]

Not the models thread, but since the pressure is falling, here's the current model output pressures at landfall among the 18z hurricane, mesoscale and GFS models:

HWRF - 962mb
HMON - 961mb
NAM 12km - 962mb
NAM 3km - 960mb
GFS -977
HRRR - 979
RGEM - 979

[supercane4867]

Sun setting over Delta.

[SconnieCane]

I feel like Delta is less concerned about having a clear eye and more concerned with trying to hold the record for the most persistent <-90C convection in the Atlantic.

Lucky for Cancún, that shear showed up and prevented it from pulling off both at the same time. Could have been the Atlantic's Haiyan.

[Steve]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Rail Dawg]

In regards to the shock waves after over 30 years of flying I have only once seen a shock wave emanating from a super-cell and let me tell you it was impressive.

It was over Texas and we heard other pilots discussing an unusual storm. Sure enough as we got closer we could see shock waves like from a blast popping out a few thousand feet from the side of the storm. It was at about 35,000 ft and the thunderstorm was topping at 50,000 ft or so. It had just reached mature stage.

After landing I looked at a radar summary and saw that this storm was the ONLY storm in the entire country.

Seeing these shock-waves on satellite with Delta it makes me curious if it is related. We observed the shock waves going into clear air but had there been a cirrus deck I wonder if we would have seen the wave rippling out?

Bottom line is that is the only time I have seen a thunderstorm shock wave in person. Am always looking for them in the big CB's but to date nothing else.

Chuck

[Rail Dawg]

Sun setting over Delta.

https://i.imgur.com/nx1zHDG.gif

The sun is setting and Delta just closed it's eye. Can we blame it?

Chuck

[MONTEGUT_LA]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

I really hope not, cause I stayed home. I guess I'm have to ride it out in Houma. Imo, even houma could be in trouble but its a lot more safe than down da bayou.

[Visioen]

Given RI is quite possible, a linear extrapolation is a reasonable assumption.

https://i.imgur.com/qqRuzw2.png

Nice one

[Kingarabian]

Impressive cloud top temperatures. CDO looking asymmetrical or squished. Common look when these systems start to interact with SW winds. Hard to tell whether this process in regards to Delta will help it reach a higher intensity or keep a lid on it. Have to wait and see.

[Steve]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

I really hope not, cause I stayed home. I guess I'm have to ride it out in Houma. Imo, even houma could be in trouble but its a lot more safe than down da bayou.

Hey Montegut. I'd play it by ear. If the water starts coming up there, you can get to Houma pretty quickly. I'm sure you'll know, because everybody down there knows. Keep the cars high just in case the water comes up.

[RBDnhm]

From Southeast Texas. Local radar, and weatherman Greg Bostwick (best in the area), suggest Delta is now moving north, and to me may be starting northeast (or wobbling that way) already. Good for Southeast Texas if true.

[plasticup]

1-minute imagery at sunset. You can see those shockwaves rippling across the CDO.



https://imgur.com/6V8Xv5S

[Rail Dawg]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

I really hope not, cause I stayed home. I guess I'm have to ride it out in Houma. Imo, even houma could be in trouble but its a lot more safe than down da bayou.

Hey Montegut. I'd play it by ear. If the water starts coming up there, you can get to Houma pretty quickly. I'm sure you'll know, because everybody down there knows. Keep the cars high just in case the water comes up.

There is a great parking lot garage next to the hospital in Houma as you guys probably already know. Above the surge and knocks about 100 mph off the wind.

I think it was Isaac that brought me to that wonderful Louisiana town.

Chuck

[DestinHurricane]

Cirrus debris from the towers reaching higher up in the troposphere is obscuring the eye.
Its not weakening, its strengthening.

Who said it was weakening?

[Ian2401]

Cirrus debris from the towers reaching higher up in the troposphere is obscuring the eye.
Its not weakening, its strengthening.

Who said it was weakening?

the weenies

[MONTEGUT_LA]

I really hope not, cause I stayed home. I guess I'm have to ride it out in Houma. Imo, even houma could be in trouble but its a lot more safe than down da bayou.

Hey Montegut. I'd play it by ear. If the water starts coming up there, you can get to Houma pretty quickly. I'm sure you'll know, because everybody down there knows. Keep the cars high just in case the water comes up.

There is a great parking lot garage next to the hospital in Houma as you guys probably already know. Above the surge and knocks about 100 mph off the wind.

I think it was Isaac that brought me to that wonderful Louisiana town.

Chuck

For Rita, we stayed at the civic center. Our house flooded out, but we just had a lot of wind & rain in Houma. Them winds hitting the metal siding was incredibly scary at times. We rode storms out before just prefer not to be in the area.