ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

https://i.imgur.com/636jqOd.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/8PBIewS.gif

Could be my eyes playing tricks but looks like it’s moving northeast here?

[xironman]

The eye is having a little more trouble fully clearing out than I expected. Thinking it’ll have one more shot to strengthen a little more once the sun goes down, but thinking the limit is probably 120-125mph. I might have missed it, but what are the surge estimates?


Edit: maybe I was wrong about that peak prediction. If it’s really dropped to the low 950s, low end Cat4 might still be on the table

The eyewall is very dynamic right now, so the overshooting cloud tops are obscuring the eye.

[aspen]

954.2 to 949.2 mbar extrapolated between 2024z and 2205z (1hr 41min) yields a pressure fall of 2.97 mb/hr. It’s safe to say that Delta is rapidly intensifying to the minimum pressure possible in its current location, which might be as low as 930 mbar.

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye is having a little more trouble fully clearing out than I expected. Thinking it’ll have one more shot to strengthen a little more once the sun goes down, but thinking the limit is probably 120-125mph. I might have missed it, but what are the surge estimates?


Edit: maybe I was wrong about that peak prediction. If it’s really dropped to the low 950s, low end Cat4 might still be on the table

The eyewall is very dynamic right now, so the overshooting cloud tops are obscuring the eye.

True, I noticed that this morning. However, I was expecting it to stabilize a bit by now. Nonetheless, clearly still intensifying

[Frank P]

Basically moving due north now. It always astounds me that these colossus storms act like a feather hitting a brick wall whenever they come up against an air mass

been watching the sat loop all afternoon... starting to wonder if it will even get past 93.5w if it continues on this more northerly motion..... right now I have it at 93.3w.. I think the max longitude forecast position of the NHC is 93.9w

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/636jqOd.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/8PBIewS.gif

Could be my eyes playing tricks but looks like it’s moving northeast here?

Longer loop looks like NNW as recon has it but its at 93.4 which is getting close to some of the models furthest west projections.

[wx98]

The wobbly visible eye has all but filled in again on IR.

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/636jqOd.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/8PBIewS.gif

Could be my eyes playing tricks but looks like it’s moving northeast here?

Was just about to post that the turn has begun. Moving north now, as expected.

[aspen]

Expect a minimum extrapolated pressure around 944-947 mbar next pass, assuming Delta retains its intensification rate of 2.4-2.9 mb/hr.

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/636jqOd.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/8PBIewS.gif

Could be my eyes playing tricks but looks like it’s moving northeast here?

Longer loop looks like NNW as recon has it but its at 93.4 which is getting close to some of the models furthest west projections.

Per NHC at 4 pm, furthest west projection is 93.9w
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

[GCANE]

Given RI is quite possible, a linear extrapolation is a reasonable assumption.

[toad strangler]

The wobbly visible eye has all but filled in again on IR.

yeah that eye is #gone on visable

[Stormgodess]

This is the TENTH Forecasted storm tracking for Louisiana so far this year! My Goodness, we are all suffering Hurricane PTSD, Hurricane Fatigue, JUST DANG SICK OF HURRICANES SYNDROME... right now.

But in all seriousness. Im pretty certain I have weather PTSD from the 2016 floods.

Buck up, soldier! Part of me's still in the 2016 Cajun Navy rescue boat, too. Now it's 2020 and we got the 'canes swooping by, we got the 'rona all around, we got anti-maskers, civil unrest, the political mess . . . but we're winning, 'cause even when all your stuff is by the roadside there's still beer and jambalaya.

So, don't fret too much, be careful . . . but enjoy yourself, enjoy this ever so interesting life, and even when the murder hornets come buzzing and the swamp inexplicably catches fire and solar flares kick off and the asteroid's inbound you gotta 'merica harder than you've ever 'merica'd before.

https://media.tenor.com/images/e0ccff9a7afffafa71886e3a9995e7c8/tenor.gif

Now, I gotta go PTSD-twitch 'cause it's getting a tad breezy.

That SERIOUSLY... Is the greatest response in the history of the internet!!!! And EXACTLY what I needed to hear!

*grabs my bugout bag, my gallon of water, and my NOAA weather radio...and twitches off to my bedroom closet*

[Syx6sic]

The wobbly visible eye has all but filled in again on IR.

yeah that eye is #gone on visable

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 08/22:03:00Z
B. 24.98 deg N 093.40 deg W
C. 700 mb 2710 m
D. 957 mb
E. 350 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C30
H. 95 kt

[FLpanhandle91]

Cold CDO finally wrapping around to the east side. I believe this is the start of the final push to cat 4.

[Kazmit]

The wobbly visible eye has all but filled in again on IR.

yeah that eye is #gone on visable

Delta has never really been a fan of eyes.

[ColdMiser123]

The deepest, coldest convection is still upshear. As long as that happens, Delta should probably continue to intensify.

[Sanibel]

Gearing back up for another run at high intensity I would say...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[GCANE]

Eye drop 957mb
49% RH, continuing to dry out.
24.98N 93,40W On forecast track
30nm wide eye open SE
Eyewall 100% RH

[GCANE]

Cirrus debris from the towers reaching higher up in the troposphere is obscuring the eye.
Its not weakening, its strengthening.