ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

Comparing the Delta thread to f.e. Laura and Sally it is still surprisingly quiet. I think this one might surprise a lot of people by how strong is is/will become. I think many people checked out once the Wilma level potential wasn't realized, but this is shaping up to be one massive major hurricane right now.

The people this will most be impacted by most might not have access to internet yet?

[Beef Stew]

Thinking recon finds a solid category 3 when they arrive. Based on satellite presentation, I'd be stunned if those flight level winds haven't mixed down by now. We should have a good pass completed by the 21z/4 CDT advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thinking recon finds a solid category 3 when they arrive. Based on satellite presentation, I'd be stunned if those flight level winds haven't mixed down by now. We should have a good pass completed by the 21z/4 CDT advisory.

I agree, definitely looks like a cat 3 to me. Will be curious to see how far out the hurricane force winds extend from the center when recon gets there. Starting to become quite big.

[ConvergenceZone]

When they upgrade this in an hour, we'll see if they changed the final intensity or not...

[TallahasseeMan]

Still having trouble wrapping deep convection around the eastern part of the eye. As soon as it does that I think we can expect more rapid deepening.


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[FLpanhandle91]

Recon has descended and is about to hit us with a SW to NE pass.

[Frank P]

I am curious to see if this northward movement is a prolonged wobble or if stays moving north.. The storm is supposed to make it to make it right at 94W and we are at 93.3ish

been trying to track the center with the GOES sat, and from what I can unscientifically tell it has not crossed 93.2w in several updates of the sat... at least the last hour or so... I just click on the enlarge still sat image, and use my curse to find the approximate center...

[Beef Stew]

Comparing the Delta thread to f.e. Laura and Sally it is still surprisingly quiet. I think this one might surprise a lot of people by how strong is is/will become. I think many people checked out once the Wilma level potential wasn't realized, but this is shaping up to be one massive major hurricane right now.

It may be a combination of people checking out after Delta "disappointed" by not bombing into a historical C5 in the WCar, and that it's heading towards one of the more sparsely populated stretches of the N. Gulf coast (SW LA). Now of course that isn't any solace to those in Delta's path, and the damage- especially in areas already hammered by Laura- will be consequential. Also, this storm is still officially "only a category 2"- I think once the inevitable bump to a major happens in an hour or so, interest may pick up again.

[northjaxpro]

Still having trouble wrapping deep convection around the eastern part of the eye. As soon as it does that I think we can expect more rapid deepening.


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If it does wrap deep convection to the eastern part of the eye, that would be terrible. It could deepen to a solid Cat 4 if this happens.

[GCANE]

Appears to still be a slight thermal inversion below 1 km.
If that breaks, the cork pops

https://i.imgur.com/lr4Hdw0.gif

What does that mean? Is that inversion good or bad for the storm?

The inversion puts a block on the exchange of energy from the water.
Once the inversion is gone, it allows much more energy to flow into Delta.

There is a good analogy with the development of afternoon thunderstorms over land.
A thermal inversion in the lower atmosphere in the mornings blocks moist air from rising into the cooler atmosphere to precipitate.
Solar heating of the land during the day breaks down that inversion and then the thunderstorms quickly develop in the afternoon.
Pretty much the same principle here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Impressive Hurricane Delta. Looks better now than when it was a Category 4.

[FLpanhandle91]

Still having trouble wrapping deep convection around the eastern part of the eye. As soon as it does that I think we can expect more rapid deepening.


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If it does wrap deep convection to the eastern part of the eye, that would be terrible. It could deepen to a solid Cat 4 if this happens.

I believe it'll happen.

[xironman]

I think we may get an afternoon stadium effect.

[GCANE]

Starting to get a bit of a stadium look to it IMHO

[northjaxpro]

Comparing the Delta thread to f.e. Laura and Sally it is still surprisingly quiet. I think this one might surprise a lot of people by how strong is is/will become. I think many people checked out once the Wilma level potential wasn't realized, but this is shaping up to be one massive major hurricane right now.

It may be a combination of people checking out after Delta "disappointed" by not bombing into a historical C5 in the WCar, and that it's heading towards one of the more sparsely populated stretches of the N. Gulf coast (SW LA). Now of course that isn't any solace to those in Delta's path, and the damage- especially in areas already hammered by Laura- will be consequential. Also, this storm is still officially "only a category 2"- I think once the inevitable bump to a major happens in an hour or so, interest may pick up again.

I would not say people are disinterested. It is pretty much certain that we know where the cyclone is headed, and it is just a monitoring situation now from here on until landfall. I also just think that some people are just storm-fatigued with such an insane season of activity.

There will be more people checking in a bit later this evening into tomorrow as Delta continues to intensify in the immediate next 15-18 hours, before the system approaches landfall late tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

[LarryWx]

I am curious to see if this northward movement is a prolonged wobble or if stays moving north.. The storm is supposed to make it to make it right at 94W and we are at 93.3ish

The NHC track doesn’t even get to 93.6 for another nearly 4 hours. So far, it is on track to reach that.

[northjaxpro]

Still having trouble wrapping deep convection around the eastern part of the eye. As soon as it does that I think we can expect more rapid deepening.


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If it does wrap deep convection to the eastern part of the eye, that would be terrible. It could deepen to a solid Cat 4 if this happens.

I believe it'll happen.

It is definitely possible.

[GCANE]

The deepening of the cold pool seems to have done the trick.
Inversion is likely all but gone.

[CrazyC83]

That's a solid T6.0 from the looks of it. We'll see if Recon catches up to it.

[GCANE]

Recon coming up to the SW Eyewall