ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Big meso popping on the north eyewall. When that big eye clears out it will look pretty impressive with a large hurricane force windfield.

[GCANE]

I hope people were not thrown off guard with this collapsing in the W Carb and then dismissing what may happen in the GoM.
It is particularly significant the latest changes COAMPS is showing for lack of dry-air entrainment and a surge in energy transfer from the water.
If AMSU confirms with a deeper cold-pool reading then IMHO a low-grade Cat 4 is probably an even shot at landfall.
If CAPE gets to the 6000 level, then could be even more.
Stay tuned.

[Kazmit]

I hope people were not thrown off guard with this collapsing in the W Carb and then dismissing what may happen in the GoM.
It is particularly significant the latest changes COAMPS is showing for lack of dry-air entrainment and a surge in energy transfer from the water.
If AMSU confirms with a deeper cold-pool reading then IMHO a low-grade Cat 4 is probably an even shot at landfall.
If CAPE gets to the 6000 level, then could be even more.
Stay tuned.

Landfall as a cat 4? Would that be its peak or would it peak beforehand and weaken up to landfall?

[stormlover2013]

I hope people were not thrown off guard with this collapsing in the W Carb and then dismissing what may happen in the GoM.
It is particularly significant the latest changes COAMPS is showing for lack of dry-air entrainment and a surge in energy transfer from the water.
If AMSU confirms with a deeper cold-pool reading then IMHO a low-grade Cat 4 is probably an even shot at landfall.
If CAPE gets to the 6000 level, then could be even more.
Stay tuned.

What is the coamps never heard of it

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS run showing that this may not weaken as much as previously forecast on approach.

A big surge now in Enthalpy Flux and no Dry-Air entrainment into the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5fzz9cX.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Paz4Tjr.gif

What is the coamps?

Its the model developed in conjunction with the Navy Research Lab.
It incorporates synoptic and mesoscale states.
From what I understand some of the predominant hurricane researchers had a significant hand in its development.

[stormlover2013]

Latest COAMPS run showing that this may not weaken as much as previously forecast on approach.

A big surge now in Enthalpy Flux and no Dry-Air entrainment into the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5fzz9cX.gif

Oh k thanks, where does it show it making landfall

https://i.imgur.com/Paz4Tjr.gif

What is the coamps?

Its the model developed in conjunction with the Navy Research Lab.
It incorporates synoptic and mesoscale states.
From what I understand some of the predominant hurricane researchers had a significant hand in its development.

[Gums]

Salute!

Think Audrey. Do not get complacent.

Gums sends...

[JabNOLA]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

[Beef Stew]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Blinhart]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Really shocked they didn't up it to 110 MPH at least.

[GCANE]

I hope people were not thrown off guard with this collapsing in the W Carb and then dismissing what may happen in the GoM.
It is particularly significant the latest changes COAMPS is showing for lack of dry-air entrainment and a surge in energy transfer from the water.
If AMSU confirms with a deeper cold-pool reading then IMHO a low-grade Cat 4 is probably an even shot at landfall.
If CAPE gets to the 6000 level, then could be even more.
Stay tuned.

Landfall as a cat 4? Would that be its peak or would it peak beforehand and weaken up to landfall?

The energy inputs appear to peak out a few hours before landfall, however there is a lag in winds.
Temporal and spatial resolution is not fine enough to tell precisely from COAMPS.
But my educated guess is that surface pressure may increase a bit at landfall but the winds may peak at landfall.

[Beef Stew]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Really shocked they didn't up it to 110 MPH at least.

Likewise. Recon appeared to be suggesting an intensity of between 90 and 95 kts at the least, and I thought that they would go with the latter for this advisory.

[ElectricStorm]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Really shocked they didn't up it to 110 MPH at least.

Not much evidence of anything higher right now.

[aspen]

Delta is firing off another tall hot tower in the N quadrant. Just when you think it can’t produce any deeper convection.

[Texashawk]

Looking at the 1 PM update, it looks like Delta needs to start moving almost due north right now to make the forecast track, and I just don’t see that happening yet. If the storm crosses 94 degrees west without a significant northward component, should Beaumont/PA/Orange start to worry?

[Blinhart]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Really shocked they didn't up it to 110 MPH at least.

Not much evidence of anything higher right now.

I think there was enough evidence, as do many others. Got gas cans for family members that have a generator for after the storm. Got plenty of sand bags to hopefully secure the house. Got everything else done, luckily there wasn't much I had to do since Laura.

[Kazmit]

Both planes are heading out now. When is the next mission scheduled?

[Steve]

COAMPS can be weird though. A lot like the UKMET, sometimes it's way too far east or way too far west compared to the NHC track. However, sometimes it's pretty good. Sally near Mobile County was a recent success. You can always find it (beside the Navy site) as the "experimental track" on Ral's Early/Late Cycle Guidance plots

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... ream15.png

[kevin]

Looking at the 1 PM update, it looks like Delta needs to start moving almost due north right now to make the forecast track, and I just don’t see that happening yet. If the storm crosses 94 degrees west without a significant northward component, should Beaumont/PA/Orange start to worry?

Please listen to your officials and the NHC over me, they have way more experience and better data at their disposal. But I'm inclined to agree that if it continues this path west and crosses 94W it can indeed become a more significant threat to Beaumont/PA/Orange. Nothing set in stone yet, but I'd recommend everyone in that area to at least prepare for a possible escape plan.

[SconnieCane]

Looking at the 1 PM update, it looks like Delta needs to start moving almost due north right now to make the forecast track, and I just don’t see that happening yet. If the storm crosses 94 degrees west without a significant northward component, should Beaumont/PA/Orange start to worry?

It should start to curve back to east of due north before landfall. That means it will be coming in at a different angle than Laura, which was pretty much due north to NNNW. That means if it bulls-eyes on Cameron/Calcasieu Lake again, the surge into Lake Charles proper could be worse (than with Laura).