ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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mpic
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1961 Postby mpic » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am

davidiowx wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
Jr0d wrote:This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.


Agree completely. I went through Ike which was a category 2. I am probably 80 miles from the coast and had significant damage in my area. It was such a massive storm that it had impacts that were very far reaching from the center.


Yeah I think this is going to be another Ike type scenario. Ike was much stronger than most people think. I was in the med center inside the 610 loop and chimneys were blown off entire apartment blocks. Reliant Stadiums roof had parts of it torn off and it was supposedly rated to handle Cat 5 winds.

Ike had a huge storm surge and a massive wind field with it, which cause destruction for hundreds of miles. Delta appears to be on track to arrive in a similar size (maybe a tad smaller?) with some significant storm surge as well.


Exactly my concern being northeast of Houston. Too close to the edge of the cone. BTW rain just starting here in Splendora.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1962 Postby davidiowx » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:55 am

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1963 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:55 am

10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.0°N 92.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1964 Postby Blinhart » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:58 am

dukeblue219 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Why? There's no one with time to do it at the moment is my guess. I'm at work, and we're all volunteers. You can monitor aircraft recon here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

I started a thread a while back on this over in talking tropics, but I don’t think it got much visibility. Do you or anyone on here know of a way this could be automated so that people like CrazyC83 don’t have to put so much manual work into this? I know the discord has a recon bot.


Honestly there are so many other websites that present live recon data in various graphical or textual ways that I've never bothered with the recon forum. Apologies to those who take the time to update it, but why not just use Tropicalatlantic.com or tropicaltidbits.com?


Why, because I like getting all my information in one location, and liked how it is shown here. I know I can have like 10 or more tabs open at once if I wanted, but I could get lost or confused easily.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1965 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:59 am

NHC still expects it to become a major again. It's not too far off already, and steady strengthening should continue for now.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1966 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:59 am

Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1967 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:59 am

Looks like the eye is starting to clear out on on IR... Likely a major sometime this afternoon
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1968 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:02 am

Capital one building in Lake Charles right now.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1969 Postby MBryant » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:04 am

supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

Can I get a visual? Almost any westward shift will affect me and evacuation plans.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1970 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:05 am

MBryant wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

Can I get a visual? Almost any westward shift will affect me and evacuation plans.


Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1971 Postby Blinhart » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:06 am

supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.


I don't see a west shift, just that the cone got more narrow, hence more areas to the East are not in the cone.

I would say in the past 24 hours the landfall spot has moved around 30-50 miles west total.
Last edited by Blinhart on Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1972 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:06 am

MBryant wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

Can I get a visual? Almost any westward shift will affect me and evacuation plans.


Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1973 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:07 am

Eye temps warming dramatically... about to drop a fat eye.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1974 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:08 am

supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

I did not see any pronounced shift to the west at the 11am cone update... looks very similar to the 5am to me...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1975 Postby St0rmTh0r » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:10 am

supercane4867 wrote:Eye is clearing out on IR

https://i.imgur.com/2UTewN6.gif

Dont know why this is being downplayed this looks like a very large and powerful hurricane with plenty of time over water still. This is a horrible situation for everyone who just went through Laura. This may be worse and I dont think you care about what category it is when you've lost nearly everything
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1976 Postby MBryant » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:12 am

Frank P wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

I did not see any pronounced shift to the west at the 11am cone update... looks very similar to the 5am to me...


I'm focusing on the extreme western edge of the cone which appears to be fixed, even as the cone shrinks. I'm literally on the western edge of the cone.
Last edited by MBryant on Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Living at the intersection of Rita and Humberto and Ike and Harvey and Laura and Delta!

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1977 Postby davidiowx » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:21 am

Hurricane Warnings extended westward to High Island now.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1978 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:22 am

Blinhart wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.


I don't see a west shift, just that the cone got more narrow, hence more areas to the East are not in the cone.

I would say in the past 24 hours the landfall spot has moved around 30-50 miles west total.


Actually, there is a tad west in the left hand part of the cone...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1979 Postby al78 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:23 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Eye is clearing out on IR

https://i.imgur.com/2UTewN6.gif

Dont know why this is being downplayed this looks like a very large and powerful hurricane with plenty of time over water still. This is a horrible situation for everyone who just went through Laura. This may be worse and I dont think you care about what category it is when you've lost nearly everything


I can appreciate that if a second hurricane impacts the same area as a previous one in the same season, it doesn't have to be as strong to cause serious damage, as it will be impacting structures that have already been weakened. This is a bit like Frances and Jeanne on the east coast of Florida in 2004, except neither of those two were as strong as Laura and the east coast of Florida is less vulnerable to storm surge than the Gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1980 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:23 am

Raw Dvorak estimates are through the roof....

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2020 Time : 145018 UTC
Lat : 23:58:50 N Lon : 92:40:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 965.7mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.9 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -40.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE
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