ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
13:12Z 968mb
23.8N 92.5W
RH: NA

NE Eyewall
RH: 100% @ 700mb

[wx98]

What is the confidence level for the turn keeping the eye away from Houston?

Pretty high. NHC hasn’t even had Houston close to landfall point.

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
13:12Z 968mb
23.8N 92.5W
RH: NA

NE Eyewall
RH: 100% @ 700mb

VDM:
Eye Circular, Open SW, 36-nm wide

[FLpanhandle91]

Eyedrop
13:12Z 968mb
23.8N 92.5W
RH: NA

NE Eyewall
RH: 100% @ 700mb

VDM:
Eye Circular, Open SW, 36-nm wide

Clear to see open SW IR as well. Looks to be organizing nicely right now though. Should be closed late this morning or early afternoon.

[Blown Away]

Delta has the persistent Cat 2 look on the IR...

[Jr0d]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
13:12Z 968mb
23.8N 92.5W
RH: NA

NE Eyewall
RH: 100% @ 700mb

VDM:
Eye Circular, Open SW, 36-nm wide

Recon fix annotated on IR

[aspen]

The circular eye is starting to show up on visible imagery as well. Overall, Delta is looking like a healthy mid-grade hurricane, and a Cat 3 later today seems pretty likely.

[MBryant]

I've decided not to evacuate today. 4 miles into Texas from the Sabine just north of I-10. The forecasts all indicate a landfall east of us putting us on the weaker side, the intensity at landfall continues to fall and forward speed keeps increasing leaving it little time to change. They are all close calls and everybody is different and facing different circumstances.

I do appreciate the advice and interpretation of the models to help me make an informed decision. If something changes, I'll still have time to outrun the Storm, even though that's not generally a good idea.

The thing I was concerned about is the debris piles from LAURA which are still numerous and would likely become flying objects with even Cat 1 winds.The calls are rarely easy on the fringes.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

[tiger_deF]

Eye is clearing out on IR, relative humidity seems to be falling as well

[Aric Dunn]

[supercane4867]

Finally starting to look like a classic major hurricane.

[Gums]

Salute!

Thanks, JR folks should not get complacent. Delta might even have a higher surge than Laura.

Go look at Audrey. Wx data not as great as even ten years later, and we lost many folks that we should not have.

Besides, those folks south of Lake Charles are still in the middle of their re-building from Laura. My heart goes out to them.
-----------------------------------
From the Panhandle, decent outflow visible now (0730 and later) and mild breeze from east. Typical "day before the storm" conditions.

Gums sends...

[GCANE]

Two increasing CAPE pools

1) NE of the CoC
2) Off the TX/MX Border

[supercane4867]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

While recon observation, model output, satellite trend, and official NHC forecast clearly indicate additional strengthening into a CAT3? I'm curious why people love to draw conclusions based on personal opinion instead of facts. It's not like there are no available data.

[Do_For_Love]

Looks like it's organizing to me. I wonder if we will see the eye come out today.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll be honest, I expected this storm to look much better than this based on the Satellite this morning. The shear must be kicking in early or something. For all we know it may have reached its peak already and potentially could show slow weakening until landfall. I guess we will just have to see what the NHC says. But the size is the only thing that makes this look impressive. I'm not downplaying the storm though. Even a cat 1 landfall will do some damage based on the size of this thing.....

[supercane4867]

[ConvergenceZone]

This is a dangerous hurricane, although based on presentation and size, I highly doubt it's going to strengthen anymore. Perhaps maybe 5 mph, but landfalling at 100mph is still nothing to take lightly, especially since it's so large and surge will be bad.

While recon observation, model output, satellite trend, and official NHC forecast clearly indicate additional strengthening into a CAT3? I'm curious why people love to draw conclusions based on personal opinion instead of facts. It's not like there are no available data.

Well remember, people said last night that it would be up to a cat 3 by now already. I"m just skeptical that it's going to make it. I could be wrong, but not sure if it will make it to cat 3. And the NHC can always lower their projections as well if they start to notice the same thing over the next few hours. The next few hours will be key..... I mean this thing can't even spit out a clear eye...