ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

On approach, GFS showing the beginnings of dry air entrainment.
HWRF showing it just getting into the core the last 3 hrs before landfall.

[GCANE]

Appears heat exchange from the ocean is already diminishing.
The cold pool has significantly warmed since yesterday.
Looks like a slight thermal inversion is present at the extreme boundary layer with the ocean.

Strengthening will now need to come from latent and sensible energy exchanges.

Latent-energy exchange is driven from atmospheric sources: CAPE and TPW.
This is forecast to peak in about 24 hrs.
CAPE in the GoM yesterday peaked at 5000.
Currently at 4500. It'll likely rise again this afternoon and just start to diminish entrainment late tonight.
TPW looks good thru early tomorrow morning when dry air just starts to show up trying to move into the core.

Sensible-energy exchange is ocean spray from WISHE.
It is forecasted to peak sometime this morning.

[GCANE]

A rotating hot tower has popped up.
Latent energy exchange is taking over.

[otowntiger]

I think it maybe done intensifying for the most part. My guess is it will make landfall as a cat one. Unfortunately though, pretty close or just to the east of where Laura hit.

[Keldeo1997]

Wait is that a EWRC?

[tiger_deF]

Somehow Delta just continues to grow bigger. I think that the reason the winds haven't been intensifying more is due to the quick expansion of size we've been seeing; this could be the largest surge threat in the gulf for a long time

[tolakram]

Levi mentioned that it may be stuck in something like an ERC. Ike like in my opinion. May never reach cat 3 but will be growing by the minute.

[Stormgodess]

Hey guys, I seriously know nothing and was just checking out this loop.

What is going on here?? To me, not knowing anything it looked like Delta formed a second/different center/eye

I realize that likely isnt possible. Could someone explain what Im looking at? Never tried posting a GIF so added the link also



https://gifyu.com/image/6Fdx

[Nuno]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

Im pretty sure that’s the reason. They’ll open them later tomorrow probably

Nope the Governor has said their will not be any mass evacuation centers, they will be sending people to hotels like they did with Laura.

This is probably the safest and best approach given the COVID circumstances.

[Nimbus]

Somehow Delta just continues to grow bigger. I think that the reason the winds haven't been intensifying more is due to the quick expansion of size we've been seeing; this could be the largest surge threat in the gulf for a long time

Pressure down in the 960's this morning and the models were hinting the bottom may not go below the 950's, but that is with a much larger eye. No choice but to evacuate to a hotel if you live in the area already ravaged by Laura. After Katrina the infrastructure was so badly damaged they had to rebuild with people not allowed to return for a few months.

[xironman]

968 extrap is a bit below the NHC at 5am. Nice smooth wind maxima on the way in.

[Kazmit]

Looks sloppy this morning. I don't think it will strengthen too much more but instead keep growing in size. The surge is the greatest threat.

[tiger_deF]

Pressure down to mid 960's based off the most recent pass. Still strengthening

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/763696334452031488/20201008.0734.gw1.89hbt.26L.DELTA.85kts.973mb.23N.91.4W.75pc.jpg

Wait is that a EWRC?

If that was one, it’s done now. Maybe that’s why Delta’s IR appearance has not changed at all overnight.

[kevin]

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure down to 963.9 mbar. Maybe there has been another ERC which increased Delta's wind field even more, but it seems like it's steadily strengthening again.

[GCANE]

Rotating hot tower on IR creating a warm core feature just north of where Recon ID's the CoC.

[Mzshellg]

Hi guys. I've been lurking for years. I love weather and I'm fascinated by tropical systems. I come here every time one threatens land. Why do some you think Delta won't strengthen much more? Is it because of wind shear or dry air? Thanks in advance.

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
11:38Z 23.7N 92.3W
969mb
60% RH

NW Eyewall, completely saturated air at 700mb

[GCANE]

ADT tags a MW Eye

[tolakram]

ADT tags a MW Eye

Can you spell these out? I'm betting most people cannot remember, or know, all these abbreviations.