ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

New NHC advisory has it peaking at 120mph, up from 115 last advisory. Landfalls as a Cat 2

[Senobia]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

It's less than 48hrs from landfall. More like 36, if the timeframe reported earlier is still valid.

[ElectricStorm]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

It's less than 48hrs from landfall. More like 36, if the timeframe reported earlier is still valid.

A little less than 48hrs... NHC has it coming in around 7 pm Friday

[Blinhart]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

Im pretty sure that’s the reason. They’ll open them later tomorrow probably

Nope the Governor has said their will not be any mass evacuation centers, they will be sending people to hotels like they did with Laura.

[LarryWx]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

It's less than 48hrs from landfall. More like 36, if the timeframe reported earlier is still valid.

A little less than 36hrs... NHC has it coming in around 7 am Friday

7 PM landfall, not 7 AM

[eastcoastFL]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

It's less than 48hrs from landfall. More like 36, if the timeframe reported earlier is still valid.

Yah looks like 36-40 hours from now if it picks up pace as forecasted

[ElectricStorm]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

It's less than 48hrs from landfall. More like 36, if the timeframe reported earlier is still valid.

Yah looks like 36-40 hours from now if it picks up pace as forecasted

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/211609_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Yep you right. Not sure how I saw an A instead of a P lol

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed that on the latest graphic, they are showing the weakening happening sooner than later. Previously the weakening was going to occur just offshore, but now it's much further offshore when the weakening starts. I wonder if that's because they think the shear will kick in sooner?

[crimi481]

Looks like applied the brakes. Or a wobble

[ElectricStorm]

I noticed that on the latest graphic, they are showing the weakening happening sooner than later. Previously the weakening was going to occur just offshore, but now it's much further offshore when the weakening starts. I wonder if that's because they think the shear will kick in sooner?

Maybe? Do they factor in potential EWRC's in their forecasts sometimes? I think it may get strong enough to potentially go into one around that same time.

[psyclone]

I noticed that on the latest graphic, they are showing the weakening happening sooner than later. Previously the weakening was going to occur just offshore, but now it's much further offshore when the weakening starts. I wonder if that's because they think the shear will kick in sooner?

Maybe? Do they factor in potential EWRC's in their forecasts sometimes? I think it may get strong enough to potentially go into one around that same time.

how do we know it's weakening sooner based on that graphic? the nearest landfall position is just inland. were it just offshore it could just as easily have remained at major status. A big, wicked nasty storm is incoming with severe impacts likely. that is the takeaway

[saila]

I know we are living in an age when politics can not be involved in any discussion but perhaps there are no shelters open because it is Wednesday and no one is under a hurricane warning and there is still nearly 72 hours before landfall. Just saying.

I don’t know what the mask requirements are in La but most indoor places nowadays require a mask. While watching Perdido Bay (Sally surge) come up to the back door of my 4 year old house built well above BFE, I realized I didn’t have a backup plan if that water got inside. Was confident when I built that the bay wouldn’t get that high, especially during a cat 2. I was prepared with batteries, generator and food stuff but not an unexpectedly high storm surge with big waves. I have pets and was thinking about how to get them in the attic and would they get tangled in duct work or wiring. It was a bad feeling to realize I didn’t have a back up plan. Thankfully the water stopped rising just a couple of inches from the threshold.
Point being....besides preparing for a hurricane, have a backup plan for the unexpected. Crazy things happen in hurricanes. If your plan is to evacuate then the unexpected part is evacuating during a pandemic. Hopefully the next will be without COVID and we can burn our masks.

[ElectricStorm]

I noticed that on the latest graphic, they are showing the weakening happening sooner than later. Previously the weakening was going to occur just offshore, but now it's much further offshore when the weakening starts. I wonder if that's because they think the shear will kick in sooner?

Maybe? Do they factor in potential EWRC's in their forecasts sometimes? I think it may get strong enough to potentially go into one around that same time.

how do we know it's weakening sooner based on that graphic? the nearest landfall position is just inland. were it just offshore it could just as easily have remained at major status. A big, wicked nasty storm is incoming with severe impacts likely. that is the takeaway

Oh yeah definitely. I still have it as a Cat 3 landfall (Not Official, just IMO) after a Cat 4 peak. I was just trying to think of a way it could weaken quicker before landfall. But an EWRC would also expand the winds. Pretty much all signs point to disaster unfortunately. All I can do is pray.

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed that on the latest graphic, they are showing the weakening happening sooner than later. Previously the weakening was going to occur just offshore, but now it's much further offshore when the weakening starts. I wonder if that's because they think the shear will kick in sooner?

Maybe? Do they factor in potential EWRC's in their forecasts sometimes? I think it may get strong enough to potentially go into one around that same time.

how do we know it's weakening sooner based on that graphic? the nearest landfall position is just inland. were it just offshore it could just as easily have remained at major status. A big, wicked nasty storm is incoming with severe impacts likely. that is the takeaway

Because it shows the peak tomorrow night at 5:00 PM at 120 MPH. Then it shows it at 5:00 AM Friday at 115 MPH, and it's still quite a bit off shore by then since it's not forecasted to come on shore until Friday Evening.
Graphic is here: (you have to click on each circle on the graphic, to see what the wind speed is forecasted to be at that time)

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... cane-delta

[supercane4867]

Flight level winds have intensified and suggest CAT2 strength. SFMR readings still lagging tho.

[Sean in New Orleans]

We’ll see what happens...I’m watching for a trend East as it gets close to the shore..just my vibe with watching cloud patterns. Don’t think it will be much..100 miles at the most, but, I smell a trend East when it gets to 100 to 150 miles from shore. Could be wrong..just me...

[Beef Stew]

...DELTA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...

1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 23.0°N 91.3°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[Stormgodess]

Unfortunately for me I'm afraid the furthest West landfall will be is Grand Chenier, and come right over me.

You might want to start thinking about evacuating if you're able to. Stay safe out there.

Only way I'm evacuating is if it is mandatory. There is no mass evacuation shelters in the state of Louisiana, they are sending people to hotels.

I had a thought years ago when it was so hard to find a hotel room for Gustav... Hotels further North offering memberships for people along the coasts, where they pay a yearly fee, and that membership fee would guarantee them a room if a storm threatened their area?

Just a thought

[MBryant]

You might want to start thinking about evacuating if you're able to. Stay safe out there.

Only way I'm evacuating is if it is mandatory. There is no mass evacuation shelters in the state of Louisiana, they are sending people to hotels.

I had a thought years ago when it was so hard to find a hotel room for Gustav... Hotels further North offering memberships for people along the coasts, where they pay a yearly fee, and that membership fee would guarantee them a room if a storm threatened their area?

Just a thought

How many times have you found out that your guaranteed reservation didn't insure a room, just paying for one if you didn't use it?

[LARanger]

Side note . . . people have inquired about retiring the Greek letter name, which is part of why I disapprove of how we so quaintly name them like people anyway ("2005-K" or "2005-Kilo" or whatever you please in that vein is a lot more descriptive than "Katrina", and avoids the messy anthropomorphism and name retirement stuff that can't go on forever).

But, I think we're forgetting someone . . . namely, Delta Burke.

That poor woman might be pretty ticked right about now. And if there's anything I know from Designing Women, it's that you must be a fool to mess with Julia Sugarbaker's sister. Forget the official path and error cone . . . *that's* how the lights go out in Georgia!

Stress-induced silliness aside, in absence of an observation thread I will note here that rain has started in the BRLA area already. I think I speak for many in Louisiana insofar as rainfall when I say that I am glad Delta's a fairly fast mover.