ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

I wouldn't count out the ability of the Gulf to rapidly strengthen this back to cat 4 or even 5 intensity before landfall. Not calling for a cat 5, but we've seen the Gulf pull off these explosive bouts of intensification too often for me to feel comfortable with a cat 3 peak intensity. I feel for everyone living on the northern Gulf Coast this year...it's been a brutal one.

I would be very surprised to see this reach cat 5 in the gulf, based on the MPI maps that have been posted in this thread. Would take absolutely perfect conditions (and an organized core) to get there.

[supercane4867]

City of Lake Charles under mandatory evacuation again...this is sad.

[Blinhart]

City of Lake Charles under mandatory evacuation again...this is sad.

Vermillion Parish South of Hwy 14, Cameron Parish, Calcasieu Parish, and Jeff Davis Parish are all under mandatory evacuations. My Parish, Acadia, is under voluntary evacuations, Lafayette Parish is also under voluntary. St. Mary is under partial mandatory evacuations. St Landry Parish is under voluntary evacuations also. These are just some of the evacuations already imposed.

[Hurricane Mike]

Eyewall still opens to the west. Current round of convection should help to complete it.

https://i.imgur.com/fbKwNGr.jpg

Pretty clear Delta now has what it was lacking yesterday: convective activity on the northern eyewall. Should close off in a few hours at this rate, and it looks like that southern band trying to develop should be able to provide dual outflow once it moves further away from the Yucatán

Yes looks much better.

[mpic]

City of Lake Charles under mandatory evacuation again...this is sad.

With all the debris lining the streets, I'd be leaving without an official order.

[wx98]

Recon is making a center pass now. Outside of the NE eyewall already looks a deal stronger.

[Blinhart]

Definitely think we will see 100 MPH at the 10 pm, doubt they will get it in time in RECON for this one currently about to come out. Hoping it hasn't started bombing already.

[wx98]

FL ~95 kt
SFMR ~75 kt
Extrap: 969 mbar

[Astromanía]

Well a cat 2 instead of a cat 4 landfall is a huge difference, I'm glad this thing weakenned before reaching Yucatan, not the first major landfall of the decade for Mexico but almost and still the strongest hurricane Cancun and the riviera maya have seen since Wilma in 2005, what a night for my compatriots there

[EquusStorm]

Overall this looks better now than it did yesterday in regards to outflow and banding; it's definitely got a shot at perhaps surpassing yesterday's pressure if the core really ramps up as fast as it looks what it will. Definitely an ominous appearance.

[wx98]

7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 7
Location: 22.3°N 90.2°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[supercane4867]

Pressure has started to deepen in a decent rate. Could see Delta regain CAT2 strength before current recon mission is over.

[edu2703]

Latest VDM shows the eyewall is 36 NM and open to the northeast

[ColdMiser123]

Pressure falls, rising winds, and a much more stable inner core configuration compared to before. Another 24-30 hours of deepening likely.

I see no reason why this won't regain major hurricane intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 7
Location: 22.3°N 90.2°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Looks like a lock for Cat 2 by next advisory at the latest. Hard to believe this will be hitting the same exact areas devastated by Laura. It doesn't matter if it's a Cat 3 or TS landfall it will be destructive. Can't wait for this season to be over honestly. This is why I prefer years where the EPAC is more active, much less land.

[GCANE]

ADT is calling out a MW EYE

Microwave? Maximum Width / Wind? Mile-wide? Megawatt?

Sorry, my google-fu came up dry.

I believe its Micro Wave.
I know they incorporate Archer which uses microwave imagery, ASCAT and IR to analyze TC structure.
So, it would make sense its MicroWave.
It does correlate with the latest satellite radar imagery indicating an eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like it’s going to need another burst to close off that NE side. On satellite it doesn’t look like it quite made it all the way around

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it’s going to need another burst to close off that NE side. On satellite it doesn’t look like it quite made it all the way around

Shouldn't be a problem with DMAX coming up

[Fancy1001]

I can't believe that no one on this entire forum including myself made a gif of Deltas IR when it had a spinning top of a core yesterday.

[aspen]

It’s getting a very ominous appearance on infrared, with a <-80C CDO wrapping around the CoC and smack in the middle of banding and outflow. Delta will be moving into slightly higher OHC and SSTs throughout tomorrow, and with Dmax coming and the eyewall nearly completed, it looks like Delta will once again bomb out.

A 1.5 mb/hr intensification rate — not even as high as Laura’s — for the next 24 hours will get it to the low 940s/high 930s by tomorrow night. Any higher, and it’ll surpass Laura’s minimum pressure.