ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

I feel like I cant really count on the predictions. I really hate saying that, and I know overall accuracy has gotten so much better. But that is just how it "Feels"???

You're not wrong. Especially in the BR/Hammond area which I believe we share, basically every hurricane that's struck the northern gulf has, at one point or another, had a forecast track pointed at our area . . . sometimes two at the same time, criss-crossed . . . only to see it actually hit the other side of the state, or even another state, entirely. It's like the BR/NO area is the "default target".

Even as Delta models trend more westward (itself 2020's trend), the accuracy issues keep me up at night since, eventually, one's luck runs out.

Yeh the exact point Marco and Laura tracks converged at one time was directly over my house! And so far we have been blessed. I just came across this on Twitter though, of what Lake Charles looks like today. Can you imagine what is going to happen to that debris if they got another direct hit! It makes me almost hope it moves more our way, because the thought of those poor people facing this right now breaks my heart!

 https://twitter.com/KCourvellWHIO/status/1313900083730096128




https://twitter.com/KCourvellWHIO/statu ... 96128?s=20

[tiger_deF]

The virgin chad pre-Yucatan Delta vs the chad virgin Gulf Delta

[edu2703]

Forecast peak reduced to 100 kts in 36 hours, followed by a weakening before landfall.

[al78]

Looks like the Yucatan knocked it down more than expected, 75 kts now, which may mean it is a category lower when it comes ashore in Louisiana. May end up not as bad as initially expected, but it depends on how much the core has been disrupted by the land interaction and whatever it was that caused the core to fall apart just before landfall, and whether or not it can reorganise quickly. I remember Georges in 1998 failed to gain much intensity over the Gulf after it came off Cuba but the Yucatan is flatter than Cuba. Time will tell. Looking like it will still come ashore as a hurricane so should still be taken seriously.

[Jag95]

Sure looks to have an almost due West motion at the moment.

Didn't the models show this a couple of days ago, possibly due to effects of Gamma? Only problem is, I don't see a Gamma.

[supercane4867]

Looks like the Yucatan knocked it down more than expected, 75 kts now, which may mean it is a category lower when it comes ashore in Louisiana. May end up not as bad as initially expected, but it depends on how much the core has been disrupted by the land interaction and whatever it was that caused the core to fall apart just before landfall, and whether or not it can reorganise quickly. I remember Georges in 1998 failed to gain much intensity over the Gulf after it came off Cuba but the Yucatan is flatter than Cuba. Time will tell. Looking like it will still come ashore as a hurricane so should still be taken seriously.

Actually quite the contrary. The effects of interaction with Yucatan is less than expected for a landfalling hurricane. Had it came ashore with a pinhole eye as what it once appeared to be, the small inner core would completely vanish over Yucatan resulting in a much looser structure. Recent microwave suggests this is obviously not the case due to the fact that it struggled with wind shear in the Caribbean. Land interaction only helped its re-organization process if anything.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m starting to doubt Delta becomes a major again. It currently is still dealing with southerly wind shear especially in the mid-levels. And shear only looks to slowly increase as it tracks north.

[Blinhart]

I’m starting to doubt Delta becomes a major again. It currently is still dealing with southerly wind shear especially in the mid-levels. And shear only looks to slowly increase as it tracks north.

I'm sorry, but where do you see shear??? No one is mentioning any shear anywhere. Everyone is saying the shear is suppose to be almost nothing until right when it starts turning N/NNE, and then they don't know if the upper air wind might actually help it vent and gain some strength.

[mpic]

Yeh the exact point Marco and Laura tracks converged at one time was directly over my house! And so far we have been blessed. I just came across this on Twitter though, of what Lake Charles looks like today. Can you imagine what is going to happen to that debris if they got another direct hit! It makes me almost hope it moves more our way, because the thought of those poor people facing this right now breaks my heart!

https://twitter.com/KCourvellWHIO/status/1313900083730096128?s=20

https://twitter.com/KCourvellWHIO/statu ... 96128?s=20

Stark reminder of Dickinson, Tx after Ike in 2008

[al78]

Looks like the Yucatan knocked it down more than expected, 75 kts now, which may mean it is a category lower when it comes ashore in Louisiana. May end up not as bad as initially expected, but it depends on how much the core has been disrupted by the land interaction and whatever it was that caused the core to fall apart just before landfall, and whether or not it can reorganise quickly. I remember Georges in 1998 failed to gain much intensity over the Gulf after it came off Cuba but the Yucatan is flatter than Cuba. Time will tell. Looking like it will still come ashore as a hurricane so should still be taken seriously.

Actually quite the contrary. The effects of interaction with Yucatan is less than expected for a landfalling hurricane. Had it came ashore with a pinhole eye as what it once appeared to be, the small inner core would completely vanish over Yucatan resulting in a much looser structure. Recent microwave suggests this is obviously not the case due to the fact that it struggled with wind shear in the Caribbean. Land interaction only helped its re-organization process if anything.

Interesting. If land interaction assisted its re-organisation, why the drop in intensity by two categories, when it was forecast to stay at least mid range category two during it land crossing? Gilbert didn't weaken below cat 2 when crossing the Yucatan and that had an overland track that was further away from water, although that was cat five at landfall.

[aspen]

This microwave pass is 7 hours old, but it shows that Delta has or at least had a new, large eyewall forming.

There’s also a new hot tower firing on the other side of the CoC, a sign that continued eyewall building may be happening.

[ColdMiser123]

I’m starting to doubt Delta becomes a major again. It currently is still dealing with southerly wind shear especially in the mid-levels. And shear only looks to slowly increase as it tracks north.

I'm sorry, but where do you see shear??? No one is mentioning any shear anywhere. Everyone is saying the shear is suppose to be almost nothing until right when it starts turning N/NNE, and then they don't know if the upper air wind might actually help it vent and gain some strength.

Mid level shear will be <10 kt for the next 24-30 hours, and only increases to >15 kt a few hours before landfall. Not too much preventing this from intensifying currently, and how strong it gets now will be key for how strong it remains with landfall Friday afternoon-evening.

[mpic]

As far as people not being on the forum, I am making last preparations to leave even though I'm outside the cone. 2020 has been too unpredictable in every way and I don't want to be caught unprepared. Mobile homes and hurricanes don't mix and I'll have 7 dogs in tow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I’m starting to doubt Delta becomes a major again. It currently is still dealing with southerly wind shear especially in the mid-levels. And shear only looks to slowly increase as it tracks north.

I'm sorry, but where do you see shear??? No one is mentioning any shear anywhere. Everyone is saying the shear is suppose to be almost nothing until right when it starts turning N/NNE, and then they don't know if the upper air wind might actually help it vent and gain some strength.

Mid level shear will be <10 kt for the next 24-30 hours, and only increases to >15 kt a few hours before landfall. Not too much preventing this from intensifying currently, and how strong it gets now will be key for how strong it remains with landfall Friday afternoon-evening.

Agreed, and please do not downplay this one people. A storm of this size at category 2 is going to produce a large storm surge. Plus, it is hitting an already devastated area of LA/TX.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m starting to doubt Delta becomes a major again. It currently is still dealing with southerly wind shear especially in the mid-levels. And shear only looks to slowly increase as it tracks north.

I'm sorry, but where do you see shear??? No one is mentioning any shear anywhere. Everyone is saying the shear is suppose to be almost nothing until right when it starts turning N/NNE, and then they don't know if the upper air wind might actually help it vent and gain some strength.

Mid level shear will be <10 kt for the next 24-30 hours, and only increases to >15 kt a few hours before landfall. Not too much preventing this from intensifying currently, and how strong it gets now will be key for how strong it remains with landfall Friday afternoon-evening.

Well we better hope that shear and mid-level shear increases before landfall as SW Louisiana doesn’t need yet another major hurricane threat just over a month after the last!

[CrazyC83]

A very large, low to mid-category hurricane can have very significant impact too. Ike was a category 2 yet did about $30 billion in damage with storm surges up to 20 feet.

[Sailingtime]

Forecast peak reduced to 100 kts in 36 hours, followed by a weakening before landfall.

Good news indeed. While it will still be a nasty storm to contend with at least it won't be a major.

[Blinhart]

Forecast peak reduced to 100 kts in 36 hours, followed by a weakening before landfall.

Good news indeed. While it will still be a nasty storm to contend with at least it won't be a major.

I think they are underestimating how much fuel is out there. I think it still has a chance of getting up to at least 115 Knots.

[DestinHurricane]

Forecast peak reduced to 100 kts in 36 hours, followed by a weakening before landfall.

Good news indeed. While it will still be a nasty storm to contend with at least it won't be a major.

It can still be a major.

[Stormcenter]

I would not hang my hat on any of the intensity
forecasts as we know so far that has not worked
well with Delta or any of the storms this season.