ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313902081598795780

. So likely to remain below forecasted intensity, then, right? If it’s basically a low end cat 1 now, I have a hard time believing it will get up to a cat 3 in a day and a half with just slow intensification before it hits cooler waters and higher shear. We shall see.

[wx98]

Weird for me to say, but structurally, I think it looks better now than it did when it was allegedly 145mph. I suspect that number will get knocked down to something like cat3 in post season analysis, leaving the peak at the 140mph measured a few hours prior. Convection is still surprisingly deep, and with the larger core, seems like a faster rate (not rapid) of intensification should resume overnight through tomorrow.

No, recon was quite clearly showing a Cat 4 hurricane yesterday.

I think what is being said is that when they increased the winds to 145 mph several hours after recon left it was actually probably weaker, in the Cat 3 range. Recon did confirm a Cat 4, but it didn’t last more than a few hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

Weird for me to say, but structurally, I think it looks better now than it did when it was allegedly 145mph. I suspect that number will get knocked down to something like cat3 in post season analysis, leaving the peak at the 140mph measured a few hours prior. Convection is still surprisingly deep, and with the larger core, seems like a faster rate (not rapid) of intensification should resume overnight through tomorrow.

No, recon was quite clearly showing a Cat 4 hurricane yesterday.

Im saying post season analysis would show the peak at the measured 140mph and the estimates afterward would be brought down

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, 70 kt seems the best intensity estimate now. At Yucatan landfall, I would estimate 90 kt with a pressure of 971 mb.

[tolakram]

The think NHC has already stated that Delta can be retired as Delta-2020. The name Delta will be reused.

[davidiowx]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

Agreed. Very long year in just about every thing in life!

[weunice]

The think NHC has already stated that Delta can be retired as Delta-2020. The name Delta will be reused.

We should just retire 2020 while we are at it and start 2021 as soon as it makes landfall. Looking forward to January 2022 in a few months.

[Kazmit]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

As soon as this didn't end up being one of the top 5 strongest Atlantic hurricanes of all time, people lost interest.

[Steve]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

That and also there really isn't that much to argue at this point. That typically happens on the forum when a forecast is established as credible and is probably not going to deviate much until landfall. Of course any curve balls will get people engaged again.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on all the data, 70 kt seems the best intensity estimate now. At Yucatan landfall, I would estimate 90 kt with a pressure of 971 mb.

Wow! I didn't think it weakened that much. I think I need to lower my own prediction estimates to perhaps 80 kt by tonight then. The weaker it is the longer the less the wind speed may be at peak. perhaps 115 MPH at peak now with a landfall between 90 and 95 mph...

[aspen]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

As soon as this didn't end up being one of the top 5 strongest Atlantic hurricanes of all time, people lost interest.

Also, it looks like an ugly clump of cotton candy, so there’s no satellite imagery for people to get excited about.

If Delta bombs out again tomorrow like the HWRF has been insistent on, I guarantee that traffic on this thread will skyrocket.

[LarryWx]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

A lot of it is because FL is out of the picture for Delta. I doubt that most H enthusiasts ("weenies") would want it to be over as I'm confident most would welcome a threat with open arms. You can see it in the tone of the posts as some are practically begging for a threat.

[Cyclenall]

Delta is trying to redeem the surge event that Laura was forecasted to be.

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, 70 kt seems the best intensity estimate now. At Yucatan landfall, I would estimate 90 kt with a pressure of 971 mb.

Wow! I didn't think it weakened that much. I think I need to lower my own prediction estimates to perhaps 80 kt by tonight then. The weaker it is the longer the less the wind speed may be at peak. perhaps 115 MPH at peak now with a landfall between 90 and 95 mph...

That said, if the core can get back together in the next 24 hours, it may still have an opportunity to rapidly intensify in southern or central Gulf.

[chaser1]

Beyond landfall of course, I'm having a hard time discerning what factors are strong enough to be limiting Delta from developing and maintaining a fairly well developed eye. The other thing I'm curious about is a prior Delta discussion reference to it's vertical structure having been seemingly suppressed and not reaching higher and more typical upper troposphere heights.

[psyclone]

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

It's a good question. I think these surge forecasts are upper decile expectations and the mass inland penetration must have been that + pathways and low elevation allowing such should the ducks have lined up ideally. Perhaps a met could shed some light on this but maybe the slight right tick of Laura took that worst case scenario off the table.

[Blinhart]

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

The reason why is because Louisiana is completely flat, I live about 30 to 35 miles inland but only 29 feet above sea level, and some areas around here are only 12 feet above sea level. We have many bayous (creeks) and swampland that feed into bigger rivers that feed into the Gulf of Mexico, and that allows the surge to move further inland without much interruptions. Therefore we are prone to the sea surge and waves far in land.

[Stormcenter]

You tend to see way more actively on a storm
thread when it threatens Florida. With Delta this obviously
not the case right now.

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

[psyclone]

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

The reason why is because Louisiana is completely flat, I live about 30 to 35 miles inland but only 29 feet above sea level, and some areas around here are only 12 feet above sea level. We have many bayous (creeks) and swampland that feed into bigger rivers that feed into the Gulf of Mexico, and that allows the surge to move further inland without much interruptions. Therefore we are prone to the sea surge and waves far in land.

I think you've nailed it Blinhart. Low elevation and pathways landward for efficient inundation. Look at footage of the 2011 Japan tsunami flowing up rivers for an analog.