ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like the center is over water now, so we'll see if some rapid intensification starts to happen, like many have suggested....

[NDG]

Is a little more west and not as far north as I thought it was going to be.

173600 2146N 08839W 6966 02958 9733 +178 +095 177026 028 /// /// 03

[tarheelprogrammer]

I have a bad feeling that this is going to be the one we remember this season for the shear amount of devastation it causes. I hope I am wrong. It is going to be a very large hurricane. Prayers to those in its path.

[aspen]

Delta looks to be a 65-70 kt/975-977 mbar Cat 1 now, but the center is over water and the core seems to be in decent shape.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313902081598795780

[p1nheadlarry]

New recon center pass gives an Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure of 973.3 mbar. Does anyone know why pretty much all wind measurements are flagged?

Edit: Looking at the overlay of the plane track and the sat image of the storm I don't think it was a clear center pass, so the actual central pressure might be a few mbar lower. Or maybe Delta doesn't have a true clear center atm.

Someone's probably answered this but too close to land (shoaling)

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on Levi's message that the system has weakened over land, and the slow re-strengthening he's forecasting, I'm thinking it will be back up to 105 mph by midnight tonight and then topping off around 115 to 120 MPH tomorrow night, before the weakening starts Friday morning prior to landfall...

[cheezyWXguy]

Weird for me to say, but structurally, I think it looks better now than it did when it was allegedly 145mph. I suspect that number will get knocked down to something like cat3 in post season analysis, leaving the peak at the 140mph measured a few hours prior. Convection is still surprisingly deep, and with the larger core, seems like a faster rate (not rapid) of intensification should resume overnight through tomorrow.

[dukeblue219]

Damage seen in Cancun appears to be the worst since Wilma.

And Delta can't be retired! It wouldn't matter if it ran down the center of New orleans as a cat5 and killed 100,000 people.

Sure it can. Rules can be changed. You'd never see another Delta if that happened, one way or another.

[GCANE]

VDM 980mb
21.76N 88.72W - On Forecast Track
No mention of eye characteristics

[aspen]

After being bearish about Delta in the Gulf for days, I’m finally thinking another phase of RI is possible or even likely. However, it’s unclear if Delta will get close to its previous peak, because it has fallen HARD as a result of mid level shear and land interaction. Recon supports nothing more than a moderate Cat 1 hurricane. It’ll take another huge phase of RI to get it back to 120-125 kt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if another EWRC tries to start and stops intensification for good.

[Blinhart]

After being bearish about Delta in the Gulf for days, I’m finally thinking another phase of RI is possible or even likely. However, it’s unclear if Delta will get close to its previous peak, because it has fallen HARD as a result of mid level shear and land interaction. Recon supports nothing more than a moderate Cat 1 hurricane. It’ll take another huge phase of RI to get it back to 120-125 kt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if another EWRC tries to start and stops intensification for good.

Us folks that are under the gun, sure hope you are right that it won't intensify that much, but with the OHC and the possible venting starting tonight, the odds of RI has to be high (would love to see what SHIPS odds are), I would put it at 80-90% chance of RI, and 50-60% chance of ERI.

[plasticup]

Damage seen in Cancun appears to be the worst since Wilma.

And Delta can't be retired! It wouldn't matter if it ran down the center of New orleans as a cat5 and killed 100,000 people.

Of course it would be.

[GCANE]

No PVS connecting to the Rossby Wave or the TUTT to the east.
The signature shown with Delta is the HL vort from Delta itself.
Outflow should look much better now and the so called shear many have been referring to will look improved.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Weird for me to say, but structurally, I think it looks better now than it did when it was allegedly 145mph. I suspect that number will get knocked down to something like cat3 in post season analysis, leaving the peak at the 140mph measured a few hours prior. Convection is still surprisingly deep, and with the larger core, seems like a faster rate (not rapid) of intensification should resume overnight through tomorrow.

No, recon was quite clearly showing a Cat 4 hurricane yesterday.

[wxman57]

Based on Levi's message that the system has weakened over land, and the slow re-strengthening he's forecasting, I'm thinking it will be back up to 105 mph by midnight tonight and then topping off around 115 to 120 MPH tomorrow night, before the weakening starts Friday morning prior to landfall...

Seems reasonable. Maybe Cat 2 at landfall.

[GCANE]

Eye drop 84% RH.
60 mm/hr rain rate

[ElectricStorm]

After being bearish about Delta in the Gulf for days, I’m finally thinking another phase of RI is possible or even likely. However, it’s unclear if Delta will get close to its previous peak, because it has fallen HARD as a result of mid level shear and land interaction. Recon supports nothing more than a moderate Cat 1 hurricane. It’ll take another huge phase of RI to get it back to 120-125 kt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if another EWRC tries to start and stops intensification for good.

Us folks that are under the gun, sure hope you are right that it won't intensify that much, but with the OHC and the possible venting starting tonight, the odds of RI has to be high (would love to see what SHIPS odds are), I would put it at 80-90% chance of RI, and 50-60% chance of ERI.

I would be shocked if it ERI's again. But I'm still going with quick strengthening/possible RI (but not ERI) to cat 4 peak, Cat 3 landfall. Obviously EWRC can throw that out the window but until one of those happens, that's what I'm going with

[Ubuntwo]

Weird for me to say, but structurally, I think it looks better now than it did when it was allegedly 145mph. I suspect that number will get knocked down to something like cat3 in post season analysis, leaving the peak at the 140mph measured a few hours prior. Convection is still surprisingly deep, and with the larger core, seems like a faster rate (not rapid) of intensification should resume overnight through tomorrow.

No, recon was quite clearly showing a Cat 4 hurricane yesterday.

I think they're saying the 140 mph cat 4 point will be kept, but the following 145 mph point when there was no recon might get knocked down to cat 3. Seems reasonable considering the weakening observed when recon arrived.

[MBryant]

Damage seen in Cancun appears to be the worst since Wilma.

And Delta can't be retired! It wouldn't matter if it ran down the center of New orleans as a cat5 and killed 100,000 people.

Of course it would be.

I think Hurricane Dammit is available...