ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I know they really can't ( I guess ) but the Hurricane watch down in SE LA . . . If Delta came across that area on the NNE to NE track it would come right into the SE MS Coast & SW AL Coast as a hurricane, and our area is not even a TS Watch. This is what happened to Gulf Shores with Sally. Everyone put their guard down, and forgot about it until it was too late.

[Kazmit]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.

Delta is trying to redeem the surge event that Laura was forecasted to be.

[facemane]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission is finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

Not really. Cuba has given permission to the HH's many times to fly over their airspace. The embargo was designed to stop commerce,not humanitarian missions.

[supercane4867]

It actually doesn't look too terrible.
https://i.imgur.com/Lk8RtFC.jpg

Based on the movement of the hot towers, I believe the CoC is somewhere around here:
https://i.imgur.com/45K1oUg.jpg

It should be over water very soon. Once recon returns sometime later today, it should be well enough from the Yucutan Peninsula for the core to start recovering and the plane to do proper center passes to assess its structure.

Honestly it looks much better than yesterday in terms of outflow. Shear must have decreased quite a bit to allow for such improvement.

[mpic]

Hurricane watches extending into Texas coast.

Yep and this time I'll be prepared to lose power. My area is powered by Entergy and depends on the Louisiana grid. At least this time it won't be as hot as it was when Laura came ashore.

[MBryant]

We're in the western edge of the cone. It's not funny, but it would be ironic if it hit DELTA DOWNS located just north of Vinton, La. about ten miles, as the crow flies, from me.

https://www.panews.com/2020/09/14/delta ... e-details/

[stormlover2013]

Hurricane watches extending into Texas coast.

Yep and this time I'll be prepared to lose power. My area is powered by Entergy and depends on the Louisiana grid. At least this time it won't be as hot as it was when Laura came ashore.

this system will be wider, so winds will extend out farther

[tolakram]

Live visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

Banding already starting north of the system.

[mpic]

Hurricane watches extending into Texas coast.

Yep and this time I'll be prepared to lose power. My area is powered by Entergy and depends on the Louisiana grid. At least this time it won't be as hot as it was when Laura came ashore.[/quote


this system will be wider, so winds will extend out farther

The power plant in Sabine Pass went down and caused it last time.

[MOGSY31]

Prep time tomorrow, already take off of work
Just build a new screened in deck so need to put some finishing touches to that

then drop KATC on the tv and sit back see how we fair

Once it gets off the Yucatan i think we will have a better picture of where here in Louisiana its going to land
Looking at the cone whether it moves a little West or a little East we still going to catch a lot of this storm in Crowley

Looks like we will be experiencing a lot of rain and wind for a good 24 hours, so be prepared to be without electricity for a good bit Friday night and Saturday maybe through Monday or Tuesday, depending on how well they redid the main line for Cleco on Highway 13.

I'm a little out of town in Clearview, just past the Shell Truck stop on 13 ( Ebenezer ) so we are with SLEMCO, they did ok after Laura
Ran to Walmart this morning, Truck gassed, 5 gallon Gas cans all full, fridge full of food & Beer ( cant forget the beer)
Called the people to come get the trash from Laura before Delta blows it all over the place

Just slowly clearing up the movables in the yard then sit back and watch the show

we gonna be very close to catching the eye or maybe a few miles west of it, if the current path plays out

Gods speed to ya sir, i'll be checking in on here if we don't lose the internet

the only plus to all this is hopefully it will make landfall during daylight hours and north of us at dusk ( fingers crossed )

[Do_For_Love]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.

Total 180 from yesterday if that verifies. HWRF has done pretty well this year so I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Hoping for the best for those on the Gulf coast, Delta could bring a lot of water ashore with her.

[MOGSY31]

Correction, just seen the update, we may be on the east side of it now

[aspen]

I posted more on the models thread, but the 06z HWRF indicates Delta will be able to rapidly intensify again in the Gulf, as it travels over a pocket of 28-29C SSTs and will be within a very moist environment. However, this all depends on whether or not the eyewall reforms.

[otowntiger]

My personal prediction for peak in the gulf is 140mph/945mb... We'll see what happens

I will be very surprised if it got that strong again in the gulf- mainly because it weakened without being predicted in the Caribbean over extremely hot water and supposedly favorable/ideal conditions otherwise. The gulf conditions are not ideal as I understand it but are favorable to a degree for part of its path. Just not what it had in the NW Carib. And it unexpectedly weakened sharply before ever hitting land. But we’ll find out what it does there soon enough.

[tomatkins]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.

Delta is trying to redeem the surge event that Laura was forecasted to be.

Later analysis showed that those predictions were correct - its just that the shift of the landfall a few miles west moved them from the more inhabited areas of Cameron and up the river to Lake Charles to the less populated areas east of there. I think those surge forecast are better understood as a maximum possible than a straight prediction. Like, if you are in the eastern eye wall this is what you will get, but since we can predict landfall down to the mile, you might get quite a bit less if you end up in the western eyewall instead.

[DestinHurricane]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.

Delta is trying to redeem the surge event that Laura was forecasted to be.

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

[otowntiger]

Correction, just seen the update, we may be on the east side of it now

Yeah- the new forecast track is inching steadily closer to the Laura impacted areas to your west. That would just be downright cruel. Here’s hoping wherever it goes the intensity forecast is a big bust on the high side and it pulls a Lily or weaker by the time it hits.

[tiger_deF]

This whole core debacle with Delta has me wondering how much of the strengthening/weakening phases of hurricanes are influenced by core dynamics and what it "decides to do" structurewise, versus the actual conditions themselves.

[ATCcane]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission is finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

Doesn't have anything to do with creating an international incident. Mexico is benefiting from the data collected by the HH. They generally don't fly over land even in US Airspace and certainly aren't releasing dropsondes over land. I did see the NOAA plane fly into Mexico on Saturday while investigating Gama.