ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

Looks surprisingly healthy considering it's over land. I'm very interested what recon will find once they do a center pass.

https://imgur.com/xviVY73

That's flat land for you

One thing is for certain this going to be a HUGE storm in size. Storm surge is biggest threat.

[St0rmTh0r]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.

Not good news because it's about to have several days over the Gulf what are the conditions looking like because this may get stronger than it was before.

[kevin]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.

Not good news because it's about to have several days over the Gulf what are the conditions looking like because this may get stronger than it was before.

Not sure about shear, but in terms of potential, it looks like Delta is going through the best portion of the gulf for strengthening (that pink line that can support 910 mbar). So obviously not as favourable as before its Yucatan landfall where waters can theoretically still support 880 mbar systems, but still enough for a major. The further west Delta gets the better the theoretical potential is for strengthening. But, as I said before, that's solely based on this plot. I don't know what the shear forecast is for the next few days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.

Like I said last night, Delta had begun an ERC and was interrupted before it was complete. This seems to be corroborated by obs on the ground in Mexico. It will have to reform its eye, but you can already see a ring of higher shooting tops on the west side wrapping around. This will be set once it clears the Yucatan

[Gums]

Salute!

Quick look from Panhandle 0700 hrs 7 Oct.

Typical calm before the storm. No wind. High cirrus but not the kinda outflow I have been used to seeing for large storms like Katrina, et al. Nevertheless, for a storm that far away it's one of the signs the ancients used to get ready.

We're not supposed to get more than a stiff southerly then easterly breeze and rain from the trailing arm. The folks in Morgan City and Grand Isle should get pretty good surge if impact follows the script.'

Gums sends...

[Blinhart]

Looks surprisingly healthy considering it's over land. I'm very interested what recon will find once they do a center pass.

https://imgur.com/xviVY73

I'm not surprised, sometimes systems that are not in perfect condition right before landfall can be pushed into perfect alignment and be pushed to the brink of perfection as it crosses the Yucatan and as soon as it gets off the Yucatan and hits the bath water explode in strength. Hoping a Hurricane Hunter is getting ready to fly into it as it is exiting the Yucatan.

[edu2703]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

[tolakram]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.

Like I said last night, Delta had begun an ERC and was interrupted before it was complete. This seems to be corroborated by obs on the ground in Mexico. It will have to reform its eye, but you can already see a ring of higher shooting tops on the west side wrapping around. This will be set once it clears the Yucatan

ERC might be the correct wording but I think the eye just collapsed due to it's small size. Not sure if technically that's an ERC or instead just a collapse and reorganization of the core?

[cheezyWXguy]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/last24hrs.gif

Haha second storm in a row to build an eye over the Yucatán

[Blinhart]

Salute!

Quick look from Panhandle 0700 hrs 7 Oct.

Typical calm before the storm. No wind. High cirrus but not the kinda outflow I have been used to seeing for large storms like Katrina, et al. Nevertheless, for a storm that far away it's one of the signs the ancients used to get ready.

We're not supposed to get more than a stiff southerly then easterly breeze and rain from the trailing arm. The folks in Morgan City and Grand Isle should get pretty good surge if impact follows the script.'

Gums sends...

You guys need to preparing for storm surge, waves, and rip tides. The beaches better have the high hazard flags out.

[ElectricStorm]

Nice to see Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 in the Yucatan rather than the Cat 4/5 we thought it would be yesterday. Hopefully everyone stayed safe and will recover soon there. NHC has this becoming a Cat 4 again in the gulf before landfalling as a Cat 3 on the gulf coast. They've been pretty consistent on that for several advisory cycles now so we'll see what happens. I personally still think it can get to where it was yesterday, maybe even a tad stronger before weakening on approach.

[ElectricStorm]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/last24hrs.gif

Wow according to that loop, it's already almost wrapped all the way around

[Blinhart]

Nice to see Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 in the Yucatan rather than the Cat 4/5 we thought it would be yesterday. Hopefully everyone stayed safe and will recover soon there. NHC has this becoming a Cat 4 again in the gulf before landfalling as a Cat 3 on the gulf coast. They've been pretty consistent on that for several advisory cycles now so we'll see what happens. I personally still think it can get to where it was yesterday, maybe even a tad stronger before weakening on approach.

I hate to agree with you due to the fact the projected path puts the eyewall going right over or just about over my house, but I also think that we haven't seen the max winds that this system will have, and with the forward speed the cool water won't have that much effect on it as it approaches the coast, so here is to hoping that the Wind Shear is as bad as they are predicting or worse.

[St0rmTh0r]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/last24hrs.gif

Did the storm actually jump north and the south like that?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.

Like I said last night, Delta had begun an ERC and was interrupted before it was complete. This seems to be corroborated by obs on the ground in Mexico. It will have to reform its eye, but you can already see a ring of higher shooting tops on the west side wrapping around. This will be set once it clears the Yucatan

ERC might be the correct wording but I think the eye just collapsed due to it's small size. Not sure if technically that's an ERC or instead just a collapse and reorganization of the core?

The core itself didn't collapse because there were incredibly strong updrafts that maintained. The wall collapsed and there was a ring that was only developed on the southern half when this occurred. It has just now recovered.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/last24hrs.gif

Did the storm actually jump north and the south like that?

I think thats from the satellite

[cheezyWXguy]

Nice to see Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 in the Yucatan rather than the Cat 4/5 we thought it would be yesterday. Hopefully everyone stayed safe and will recover soon there. NHC has this becoming a Cat 4 again in the gulf before landfalling as a Cat 3 on the gulf coast. They've been pretty consistent on that for several advisory cycles now so we'll see what happens. I personally still think it can get to where it was yesterday, maybe even a tad stronger before weakening on approach.

I bet they’re factoring in the COAMPS (I think it’s called?) to that forecast, which pretty accurately showed Delta reaching cat4 yesterday, then weakening as it approached the Yucatán and restrengthening to cat 4 in the gulf

[ElectricStorm]

Nice to see Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 in the Yucatan rather than the Cat 4/5 we thought it would be yesterday. Hopefully everyone stayed safe and will recover soon there. NHC has this becoming a Cat 4 again in the gulf before landfalling as a Cat 3 on the gulf coast. They've been pretty consistent on that for several advisory cycles now so we'll see what happens. I personally still think it can get to where it was yesterday, maybe even a tad stronger before weakening on approach.

I hate to agree with you due to the fact the projected path puts the eyewall going right over or just about over my house, but I also think that we haven't seen the max winds that this system will have, and with the forward speed the cool water won't have that much effect on it as it approaches the coast, so here is to hoping that the Wind Shear is as bad as they are predicting or worse.

Yikes stay safe out there. You planning on leaving?

[tomatkins]

Microwave imagery shows Delta building a larger eyewall

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/last24hrs.gif

Did the storm actually jump north and the south like that?

No - this graphic is produced by taking microwave data from a few polar satellites. That data is a snapshot in time. It then moves that static image along the path of the hurricane, blending it with new data as other satellites pass overhead. I assume the path is automatically generated from the data. Presumably the automatic tracking algorithm had trouble discerning the center as the eye fell apart.

[MarioProtVI]

Much better microwave presentation then last night