96L Weakening as it Nears Bahamas

[wxman57]

This morning's visible imagery indicates that 96L may be close to weakening to a tropical wave. Satellite structure is more indicative of a very large wave than a closed low (see image below). Quickscat winds show 25-30 kts north of the weak low center, but now only 5-10 kts to the south. I'm seeing less strato-cu streaming into the low in the south half. Clearly this low is NOT strengthening at all - good news for Florida. Strongest convection is now about 100-150 miles west of the broad area of low pressure. It's evident that strong easterly shear around the base of the mid-level ridge is having an adverse effect on the low.

These squalls will move into southeast Florida late this afternoon, probably producing 2-5" of rain in some areas. Winds of 15-30 kts can be expected along the beaches, decreasing to 12-20 kts inland. So Florida will see just a little bit of rain and some gusty wind.

As for its future, since it hasn't become any better organized in the past 2 days, the chances of it doing anything in the Gulf are diminishing. I still think that it'll eventually be called an STD by the NHC, but it's losing upper-level support (necessary for a cold core low to develop/maintain itself) and showing no signs of developing convection near the center (necessary if it will "go tropical"). That's why winds north of the low are down 5-10 kts from yesterday. But will it become a TS or STS in the GUlf? I'm now leaning more against that possibility. I'd give it a chance of being called a minimal STS or TS in the Gulf, but not a good chance any more. But then, the NHC called Nicholas a TS for 3 days after it weakened below TS strength, so who knows what they'll do.

One other note - Monterrey is now referring to this as "Invest 96L" as opposed to "Nicholas" now.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

[Josephine96]

Darn thing better not be weakening.. Too much hype for it to weaken so suddenly.

Hope it strengthens to a TS. We could use the rain and a little wind never hurt no one. It's been kinda dry around here lately.

Plus we need to have a November storm. lol.. I hate how quiet the season is now..

[wxman57]

Darn thing better not be weakening.. Too much hype for it to weaken so suddenly.
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Correct -- "too much hype". I think this may be a decoy. Look south in the Caribbean at the very strong disturbance. THAT may be something to watch, as it is purely tropical.

[Josephine96]

Oh well.. Hype or not.. Lets' see what happens.. Since they do say a tropical or sub tropical system could form at anytime

[stormchazer]

Darn thing better not be weakening.. Too much hype for it to weaken so suddenly.
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Correct -- "too much hype". I think this may be a decoy. Look south in the Caribbean at the very strong disturbance. THAT may be something to watch, as it is purely tropical.

You answered a question on my mind. I originally thought this was energy involved with 96L. Isn't shear an issue right now with this disturbance?

[wxman57]

You answered a question on my mind. I originally thought this was energy involved with 96L. Isn't shear an issue right now with this disturbance?

Yep, the S-SW wind shear over the Caribbean disturbance is pretty high now. It's actually being hit hard by the circulation associated with the upper-low over 96L. So definitely no development for a few days. The upper low will have to weaken and move off to the west maybe around mid week.

[Rainband]

Our discussion said Heavy rain this week from the area in the NE carribean.