ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

after just one pass that hasn't gone through the NE quadrant and got winds that support 110mph, wouldn't be surprised to see by the time it (RECON) is done that it is up to 145 again.

[ElectricStorm]

This storm is basically Patricia Jr. (For now) Insane strengthening followed by insane weakening. I've been bullish on this storm the entire time but I certainly was not expecting this. Good news for the Yucatan, at least for now. The bad news is that it's still got 12-15 hours to try to get its act together again. Also it will likely have a second (or third, depending on what it does between now and Mexico) peak, so this storm is far from over. Just because it is struggling big time right now certainly does not mean it's even close to done yet. Who knows, maybe it's true peak will be in the gulf? We shall see

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1313627310898151424?s=21

Interestingly, the 18Z HWRF has it weakening from now through the next 24 hours, when it goes offshore the Yucatan.

[ConvergenceZone]

Active convection itself does not yield intensification. The eyewall has been significantly degraded and the convective structure is highly asymmetric. Recon found winds that barely support a category 2 storm to be honest. This is very good news for Mexico.

That's fantastic news SouthDade! I have some friends in Cancun..... Let's hope it gets down to Cat 2 before it hits Mexico...

[Visioen]

I saw people talk about intensification records... what about weakening ones?

[aspen]

Trash low effort Delta meme

[LarryWx]

Here's the somewhat nonsymmetrical looking hour 12 simulated IR of the 18Z HWRF: so, the HWRF seems to know about this:

[ConvergenceZone]

even if they are only finding Cat 1 winds, not sure how much they will weaken it by on the next update...
I still think it will be a hurricane and not weaken to a tropical storm by the time it gets to Yucatan

[gfsperpendicular]

Fantastic news for Mexico, but should have been unsurprising. The storm is completely asymmetrical and banding features have collapsed. None of the storms this year, Laura excepted, can seem to avoid quickly oscillating between organizing and stalling.

[SouthDadeFish]

I want to be clear: I'm not saying Mexico is off the hook. It's possible this is very temporary. Pressures are still low. But for now, winds appear to have come down. At the very least, the earlier phase of RI has paused. That is still good news.

It is still possible the inner core re-organizes and winds pick back up.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC still wet with 145mph/956mb at the intermediate advisory

[us89]

This storm is basically Patricia Jr. Who knows, maybe it's true peak will be in the gulf? We shall see

This has been hinted at in several hurricane model runs.

[LarryWx]

Could some of this weakening be related to it traveling over the slightly cooler Gamma wake? I think Levi had said there could be temporary weakening for this reason.

[MississippiWx]

Mentioned earlier that satellite gave the impression of a sheared cyclone. In fact, it looks even more sheared now than earlier. Good news for Cancun! Small cyclones just can’t withstand shear very well.

On the other hand, the extremely deep convection blowing up currently proves this thing could go crazy again if shear relaxes just a little. Mexico certainly isn’t off the hook.

[SouthDadeFish]

Could some of this weakening be related to it traveling over the slightly cooler Gamma wake? I think Levi had said there could be temporary weakening for this reason.

If SSTs were cold, I doubt you would see convection this vigorous. I think some sneaky mid-level shear is to blame.

[supercane4867]

I saw people talk about intensification records... what about weakening ones?

Both overwater intensification and weakening records were set by Hurricane Patricia with 1 day intensification from to 75kt to 180kt and a filing rate of about 8 mb/h prior to landfall in Mexico.

[Visioen]

Imagine being a forecaster at NHC

[MississippiWx]

Could some of this weakening be related to it traveling over the slightly cooler Gamma wake? I think Levi had said there could be temporary weakening for this reason.

He mentioned that off the Northern tip of the Yucatán. The deep warm waters of the NW Caribbean didn’t even know Gamma was there. This has everything to do with an unexpected increase in easterly shear.

[AutoPenalti]

What a wild ride, Delta supporting Cat 2 winds but my oh my, it still has a lot of OHC left...

[ozonepete]

Unless the NE quadrant has stronger winds, Delta has fallen back to Cat 2 status. It REALLY does not want to be a Cat 3, it seems.

Despite the absolutely absurd -90C CDO, there’s clearly some shear squishing it on the east side.

You'd better take another look.