ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

That's nuts. For those of us past the Yucatan, good thing it's not August or early September.

[GCANE]

Appears to be bombing now.
Upper troposphere diurnal cooling underway.
Massive lightning and gravity waves.
Could still be a pinhole. Should know soon.

[USTropics]

At what time is recon expected to arrive? What do you expect they'll find? Delta has been struggling a bit (relatively speaking) since the last recon, but it's starting to look more impressive again lately.

They're about ~45 minutes away from first pass:

[ElectricStorm]

Delta: "Welp, the recon plane is coming, time to get my act together!"

[supercane4867]

Won’t be surprised if recon finds Delta much weaker

[aspen]

Won’t be surprised if recon finds Delta much weaker

I also think Delta will be weaker, but it might not be for much longer. Soon we’ll know how the EWRC is proceeding and whether or not Delta will attempt to bomb out again.

[sikkar]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=STN

Too bad may miss the center.

[ronyan]

Won’t be surprised if recon finds Delta much weaker

I also think Delta will be weaker, but it might not be for much longer. Soon we’ll know how the EWRC is proceeding and whether or not Delta will attempt to bomb out again.

I think they will fly it then an hour after they leave it will improve dramatically.

[supercane4867]

Won’t be surprised if recon finds Delta much weaker

I also think Delta will be weaker, but it might not be for much longer. Soon we’ll know how the EWRC is proceeding and whether or not Delta will attempt to bomb out again.

The peak intensity will probably occur in the Western Gulf rather than Caribbean. It still could end up stronger than Laura.

[Monsoonjr99]

I wonder if recon will find the pinhole still there or if the mid-level shear has collapsed the core. In the latter case, all the convection right now might be from a single updraft and thus Delta would be in a CCC pattern.

[tiger_deF]

Clearly an unpopular opinion but I think that Delta looks the best it ever has. Convection is extremely deep around the entire CDO, there is finally some evidence of actual banding around the system, and it is getting better by the minute

[ElectricStorm]

I think it may be a tad weaker right now but I also think it will have another round of significant intensification before impacting the Yucatan.

[SconnieCane]

Clearly an unpopular opinion but I think that Delta looks the best it ever has. Convection is extremely deep around the entire CDO, there is finally some evidence of actual banding around the system, and it is getting better by the minute

Banding looks restricted to the east (where that easterly shear is/was), but there's now a proper equatorward outflow channel where that extraneous convective blob used to be.

[Steve]

Clearly an unpopular opinion but I think that Delta looks the best it ever has. Convection is extremely deep around the entire CDO, there is finally some evidence of actual banding around the system, and it is getting better by the minute

It busted through the troposphere. It's healthy - just maybe not as strong as it will ever be. Radial waves, gravity waves, fingers. You can see all that with the shadows from sunset.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Blown Away]

Amazing how tracks cluster during a season, it’s Louisiana’s turn this year... Feeling bad for Cancun, yikes!!!

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like shear has disrupted the inner core structure. I'm expecting the inbound recon flight to find a bit of weakening. We'll see.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF has Delta significantly weaker in the short run. Shear induced mid level dry air is very evident on cross sections.

[3090]

That's nuts. For those of us past the Yucatan, good thing it's not August or early September.

Why? It is going to be bad enough as it is. I don’t get the point. First off, there is no guarantee, that the weather pattern in the peak of Hurricane season would be conducive to a hurricane as intense as Delta is now, or even as it is forecast to be once in the GOM.

[One Eye]

Am I seeing things but sure looks like the storm has slowed down on latest satellite imagery.

[USTropics]

First pass incoming: