ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Looking at some of the mid level clouds on IR, it looks like easterly shear literally just let up all at once. Lol.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm reducing my predicted peak down to 160mph/920mb. I still think this will become a Cat 5 based on how long it still has over the insanely warm water, if the EWRC completes itself quickly. If it doesn't though it won't get much stronger than it is now. Maybe that's why the pressure has not fallen for several hours now? Cat 5 or not, still a very impressive storm and Cancun needs to watch out

[psyclone]

Those Yucatan webcams are creepy AF. Dead calm with a high end cane quickly closing in. I look at this storm and the first thing i think...is this is the storm that would have killed hundreds or thousands in the old days. a total bum rush of a tightly knotted vortex. It's a giant tornado surrounded by a tropical storm. Reminds me of 2004's Charley.

[MOGSY31]

Still have trash outside the house in Crowley from Laura, now we have this one
If the track stays as is its right over our little town

[Deshaunrob17]

Even if this doesn’t reach Cat 5 intensity before it hits the Yucatan, there will still be time for that once it pulls out into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane models were hinting at this earlier today, with max intensities not in the NW Caribbean but in the west-central Gulf.

I could be wrong but I feel in the Gulf of Mexico, this will be on of those very large storms with very low.pressures but not as impressive winds... Like Sandy and Katrina... I feel that it's gonna be a Cat 3 at landfall with a pressure of 940

[mcallum177]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

[Kingarabian]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

yes

[jackdets]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

Yes, many storms have been under 900mb. But please never use the NAM for tropical cyclones, it overestimates intensity bigtime.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is just my opinion so don’t hit me, but generally after an EWRC, the inner core is never quite the same as it was before during the initial ramp up phase. What we may see here is (if indeed there is an EWRC) a minimal Cat 4 heading into the Yucatán. It may not have enough time to resolve its core and try to reintensify. On the other hand, if it resolves quickly it may ramp on up to an upper end Cat 4. Regardless, in my opinion, an EWRC means Cat 5 is off the table looking at how much time it has left before hitting Quintana Roo.

I may be wrong, but those are my thoughts...

There's a good chance an ERC has limited Delta due to time constraints.

ERCs don't limit intensity ceiling on all storms though. Irma reached her peak after going through several ERCs in the days proceeding.

If I'm remembering correctly, Wilma had a lot of banding, several intense bands, but the pinhole kept on for awhile to get to 882mb. Delta's pinhole might not be done yet. The next few hours will be interesting.

I think the pinhole is done for, low level microwave images posted on previous pages suggest the core has enlarged. Looking at visible, that circular area of bubbling convection looks quite a bit larger than before.

[zal0phus]

Even if this doesn’t reach Cat 5 intensity before it hits the Yucatan, there will still be time for that once it pulls out into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane models were hinting at this earlier today, with max intensities not in the NW Caribbean but in the west-central Gulf.

I could be wrong but I feel in the Gulf of Mexico, this will be on of those very large storms with very low.pressures but not as impressive winds... Like Sandy and Katrina... I feel that it's gonna be a Cat 3 at landfall with a pressure of 940

I agree with you, I think whatever strength Delta gets to before landfall in the Yucatan it'll get large and sloppy in the Gulf, which is worse than it being small and powerful in a way.

[Snowman67]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 recorded a pressure of 888mb.

[Kingarabian]

Gotta love those insanely high topped convective bursts just continuously obscuring and slingshotting around the center

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/763131543287365672/4hka59.jpg

2015 Joaquin and 2016 Matthew are recent example of systems that had very cold overshooting tops that kept their eyes mostly "filled" while reaching peak intensity.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2020 Time : 205018 UTC
Lat : 18:57:00 N Lon : 84:09:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 977.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.6 4.7

Center Temp : -75.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Example of how ADT can't resolve these type of systems properly.

[wx98]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

NAM is a dirty word in the tropical meteorology world. But enough about models here...

[PTrackerLA]

Major Hurricane Delta now forecasted to go right over my house Friday evening. Realistically, what wind speeds would I receive in Lafayette if Delta makes landfall at 125mph?

[Hurricane Mike]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

NAM is a dirty word in the tropical meteorology world. But enough about models here...

That'd be terrifying. That would build up a giant storm surge.

[aspen]

I think I see part of Delta’s new eyewall on IR. Another big -90C hot tower is firing off in the SE quadrant.

[chaser1]

18Z NAM @ 60 hours

Has any storm ever been below 900 mb?

https://i.imgur.com/Vf05V5E.png

Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 recorded a pressure of 888mb.

Didn't Wilma peak at 882 mg before it weakened some?

[mcallum177]

Sorry I didn't mean to stir up any trouble with the models, I just thought it was interesting to see it predict such a low MB.

[Stormcenter]

I still think there are a lot of unknowns in reference to the to the future track of Delta so I
wouldn’t stress out just yet. It could very
easily hook NE earlier. IMO

Major Hurricane Delta now forecasted to go right over my house Friday evening. Realistically, what wind speeds would I receive in Lafayette if Delta makes landfall at 125mph?