ATL: DELTA - Models

[Frank P]

06z HMON h90 Cat 3 SELA Friday, slight shift west
https://imgur.com/a/3NlgCLo

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf shifted west also

[Nimbus]

Hwrf shifted west also

With trough shear near lanfall dropping Delta to Cat 2

[Shell Mound]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

The EPS is typically biased to the west with systems curving into the mid-latitudes, so landfall would be likely closer to Franklin–Morgan City vs. Cameron.

[Frank P]

Hwrf shifted west also

HWRF h96 slower too landfall Sat
https://imgur.com/a/Kydvqd2
https://imgur.com/a/scWqU1y

[stormlover2013]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

The EPS is typically biased to the west with systems curving into the mid-latitudes, so landfall would be likely closer to Franklin–Morgan City vs. Cameron.

Euro has struggled all year heck all models have, maybe euro gets this one right but prob not but who knows

[NDG]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

The EPS is typically biased to the west with systems curving into the mid-latitudes, so landfall would be likely closer to Franklin–Morgan City vs. Cameron.

Euro has struggled all year heck all models have, maybe euro gets this one right but prob not but who knows

Yep, the Euro has definitely lost its crown this year. It is now nothing but another model to consider into a final solution but not with the weight it used to have in years past. Sometimes in the very short term it has done well with systems this year.

[stormlover2013]

But maybe it’s on to something now who knows it’s 2020

[LowerAlabamaTider]

But maybe it’s on to something now who knows it’s 2020

Maybe . . . One thing is for sure, and that is once again an awful long stretch of coastline is on their toes watching another hurricane wondering where it will end up. These things will definitely age you way before your time!

[stormlover2013]

06 euro running now

[LowerAlabamaTider]

06 euro running now

Didn't last Euro run have Delta making landfall in basically the same area as Laura? Geez they surely don't need anything like that!!!

[SoupBone]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

I'm sorry brother but there's no reason not to. The trend has been west, west, west. Texas is definitely in play now. This is not like Laura with the east then west flip flops.

[NDG]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

I'm sorry brother but there's no reason not to. The trend has been west, west, west. Texas is definitely in play now. This is not like Laura with the east then west flip flops.

The much trusted pack still don't agree with the Euro unless the trends continue west during the day today.

[NDG]

The westward shift by the Euro ensembles has stopped, at least for now.

[South Texas Storms]

Here we go again with the Euro ensembles, I am sure is going to make people in TX nervous again like it did with Laura. Don't buy into them, at least not yet.

https://i.imgur.com/mnvbDH3.png

I'm sorry brother but there's no reason not to. The trend has been west, west, west. Texas is definitely in play now. This is not like Laura with the east then west flip flops.

I'm not worried here in Houston about this storm. The Euro has had a significant west bias especially this year. Until the other models besides the GFS-Para show a TX threat, I won't be too concerned about us. I do worry though for our neighbors in LA. They do not need another hurricane this year.

[USTropics]

Here is the entire 06z ECMWF run, remains on the western side of the guidance envelope:

[NDG]

Here is the entire 06z ECMWF run, remains on the western side of the guidance envelope:

https://i.ibb.co/mqPjCfy/9-km-ECMWF-Global-00z-12z-3-Hourly-Gulf-of-Mexico-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif

At least a good illustration on how Gamma's remnants will be absorbed by Delta.

[Steve]

NAM 12km @ 75h is heading for Morgan City as a weakening 970's system (Cat 2 probably). Majority of the rain is offshore through that point.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=75

[Steve]

NAM 3km has it at 912mb at 60 hours. Haha. I don't think there's a chance in hell we will have a sub 920 storm in 60 hours (maybe before that, but not at 60). It's always good for entertainment value though. I promise that if this happens, the next 10 times I was going to say, "but it's the NAM", I'll replace that with "Why yes. It's the NAM."

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=60

[stormlover2013]

NAM 3km has it at 912mb at 60 hours. Haha. I don't think there's a chance in hell we will have a sub 920 storm in 60 hours (maybe before that, but not at 60). It's always good for entertainment value though. I promise that if this happens, the next 10 times I was going to say, "but it's the NAM", I'll replace that with "Why yes. It's the NAM."

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=60

we all know the nam this far out is way wrong.