ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Comparison to Wilma at about the same lat/lon:

Wilma:


Delta:

[TorSkk]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1313471797204054021

[SconnieCane]

That <-80C perfectly circular CDO with a pinhole starting to show up on visible is a terrifying sight. Imagine how nuts Delta is going to be once that clears out...

The HWRF showed that pinhole a couple days ago... It has been pretty impressive with storm structure this year.

...but not consistent run to run (a few runs later it had the system much weaker). Just looking at the oceanic and atmospheric conditions; anyone even passingly familiar with tropical cyclogenesis wouldn't need a model to tell them what were seeing now was always a strong possibility.

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1313471797204054021

What the...

[BigB0882]

One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.

[mrbagyo]

Lots of lightning activity in the eyewall
 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1313471560573833216

[Steve]

Store Run 1 completed. That was 6 cases of spring water, 2 handles of Jim Beam, some Red Bulls, snacks and milk. We have one case freezing in the freezer which we always do just to have extra cold in the refrigerator if we need it or can use the frozen bottles to cool an ice cheset. This is pretty insane considering it's like the 4th time I've stocked up on hurricane supplies so far only to see a wind gust around 40mph once or twice. We'll still need to gas up and position the cars if necessary, but that will happen on Thursday if we have to do it. I think we got rain from 6 or 7 systems (or former systems) in 2002. We got like 4 in 2005. This is up there with 2002 but with generally bigger threats that missed or storms that didn't take off. Batteries, chargers, flashlights and candles are still around from Sally and Beta.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.

With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.

[ThetaE]

Uh, woah there.

[FLpanhandle91]

Welp.

[supercane4867]

Eye warming. About to clear out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.

[AutoPenalti]

One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.

With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.

No I think in this case Levi is right, it currently is going through some mid-level shear based on Satellite. Nothing to weaken it of course. That dropsonde looks like a gust FWIW.

[TallyTracker]

Uh, woah there.

https://i.imgur.com/ZjEp4GV.png

Looks like a major at 11 am coming right up!

[plasticup]

Uh, woah there.

https://i.imgur.com/ZjEp4GV.png

Unreal. Maybe just a gust. Probably. This feels like watching Wilma again. Thank God it's a slow day at work!

[ThetaE]

113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.

I dunno about "likely a gust-" note that winds averaged 115 kt in the lowest 150 m and 112 kt in the lowest 500 m. If this was just a gust I don't imagine you'd see such a deep layer of strong winds, however I do think that surface wind is still a bit too high/should not be taken literally. I'd say 105-110 kt.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

113 knots on the dropsonde but likely a gust. However, this supports an upgrade to 100 knot major hurricane status when considering reduction from gusts.

I dunno about "likely a gust-" note that winds averaged 115 kt in the lowest 150 m and 112 kt in the lowest 500 m. If this was just a gust I don't imagine you'd see such a deep layer of strong winds, however I do think that surface wind is still a bit too high/should not be taken literally. I'd say 105-110 kt.

We've seen this before. With Laura, for example, we saw winds averaging well over 140 knots along the lowest 500 meters; however, Laura was not upgraded to Category 5 status.

[GCANE]

75 mm/hr rain rate.
Massive latent heating

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One tweet saying it isn't falling more than 2 mb per hour and then another tweet from someone else saying it fell 7 mb in a little over an hour. Gotta love the internet and social media.

With respect to Levi, but he's incorrect in this case. The system has definitely dropped nearly 7 mb in a little over an hour per dropsonde.

No I think in this case Levi is right, it currently is going through some mid-level shear based on Satellite. Nothing to weaken it of course. That dropsonde looks like a gust FWIW.

He's right on that point, he's wrong that the storm hasn't deepened more than 2 mb/hr. Recon clearly shows that not to be the case.

[tolakram]

Hi all,

please remember that if you post tweets you are responsible for the information in those tweets being reasonably accurate. I don't want to scare anyone away from posting a tweet but if you know or suspect it's not accurate don't post it. Treat it like you would if you posted the information yourself. Contents of tweets should not violate S2K standards.

Thanks!