ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Florabamaman]

With Sally still fresh in the brain, gas in Santa Rosa county Florida is already in short supply and we are at the extreme East of the cone.

[FLpanhandle91]

Latest dropsonde showed RH in the eye still very high.

[St0rmTh0r]

Latest dropsonde showed RH in the eye still very high.

Just perfect conditions right now for strengthening

[Blackwaterjoe22]

With Sally still fresh in the brain, gas in Santa Rosa county Florida is already in short supply and we are at the extreme East of the cone.

Also in Santa Rosa County. I am just finishing up cleanup from Sally. Surge waterline at my house was 56inches.
Now here we are possibly looking at another storm/surge. I have been fascinated by hurricanes my whole life but can do without another one right now. Still have 20 gallons of generator has from Sally. Wishing the best for whoever ends up in the path

Joe

[CrazyC83]

FL winds now up to 81 kt which supports 73 kt at the surface. SFMR is reliably 68 kt but flagged to 84 kt.

Best center estimate is 17.0N 80.6W, as Recon may be having a hard time finding the true center (it's so tiny).

[Keldeo1997]

[Keldeo1997]

Pinhole open to the NW

[Extratropical94]

970.4 mb extrapolated,
87kt FL, 82kt SFMR outbound in NW quad

[Astromanía]

Cancun panic buying
[youtube]https://youtu.be/bMnzRWh7gp0[/youtube]

[kevin]

All recent recon passes into Delta (UTC time):

22:56 PM = 976.3 mbar
01:39 AM = 976.9 mbar
01:46 AM = 977.5 mbar
03:25 AM = 975.7 mbar
05:35 AM = 973.9 mbar
06:49 AM = 974.0 mbar
07:56 AM = 970.4 mbar

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks to be about 970 mb or so, surface winds near 90-100 mph. Almost a Cat 2, if not one by now.

[Astromanía]

Wow a real treat for Cancun and the riviera maya after so many years of nothing more than tropical storms, this will be interesting to follow but at the same time catastrophic, I will pray for my people there. I trust in Mexico's hurricane evacuation, even with Wilma and her slow movement the deaths number wans't high, authorities act in time.

[GCANE]

Delta is now inside a massive Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break.
Due in large part to the effects of Gamma's convection.
As far as upper-level conditions, nothing could be better for intensification.

[wx98]

...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...

5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 6
Location: 17.5°N 81.3°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[wx98]

Now forecast to peak at Cat 4 twice:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[Keldeo1997]

I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it
reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer
moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern
Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification
probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories.
Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan
landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a
good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar
data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but
conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico.
Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching
category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC
intensity forecast reflects this likelihood.

NHC Forecaster Eric Blake^^

[GCANE]

Seeing two sets of lightning bursts within the last hour.
That and the pinhole eye could be the start of explosive intensification.
At the moment theta-e has dropped a bit ahead of it along its track.
May slow intensification down a bit later in the day if it doesn't bounce back.

[Keldeo1997]

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 58.7% 83.5% 62.6% 55.2% 49.3% 55.3% 37.1% 45.8%

New SHIPS are very ominous. CAT 5 is almost a coin flip

[Hurricane Mike]

This might be a really bad strike for Cancun.

[GCANE]

That PVS is still there but much weaker than yesterday.
These always take a long time to clear especially one that was this strong.

Warm core is aligned with the CoC and cold pool to the west.

Once the PVS finally dissipates, the vort column will stack and surface pressure will drop like a rock.