ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nuno]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

[Kazmit]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

A Greek letter retirement candidate was bound to happen at some point, so I think it's good that this is going to make them question how the whole naming system works.

[dukeblue219]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

If Delta became a Katrina (let's just say) I guarantee it would be retired. The NHC can do what they need to, but they won't dare re-use it if there is a significant legacy.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

05/2331 UTC 16.7N 79.7W T4.0/4.0 DELTA

[ElectricStorm]

05/2331 UTC 16.7N 79.7W T4.0/4.0 DELTA

T4.0, Looks to be right on with NHC's 75mph intensity

[Kingarabian]

ADT running lower than Recon:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2020 Time : 235018 UTC
Lat : 16:22:11 N Lon : 79:45:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 998.6mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.5

Center Temp : -62.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

It'll catch up soon but shows how Recon is irreplaceable.

[ElectricStorm]

ADT running lower than Recon:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2020 Time : 235018 UTC
Lat : 16:22:11 N Lon : 79:45:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 998.6mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.5

Center Temp : -62.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

It'll catch up soon but shows how Recon is irreplaceable.

Wow that's quite the difference

[Nuno]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

If Delta became a Katrina (let's just say) I guarantee it would be retired. The NHC can do what they need to, but they won't dare re-use it if there is a significant legacy.

It would be de-facto retired if the NHC/WMO decide to institute a new naming policy.

We're getting a bit ahead though, lets see just how much this bombs out...

[Do_For_Love]

Looks like a real beast in the making to me.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a real beast in the making to me.

This part of the Caribbean is especially dangerous this late in the season.

[wx98]

We should get the first pass from the AF plane soon.

[AutoPenalti]

I’m going to go bold and predict that Delta peaks around 905 mbar by tomorrow night. Based on how poorly my previous predictions went, either this estimate is too much, or it could be too high.

That’s too low, not even Wilma went that low in 24 hours. That’s a 3mb drop per hour starting now.

[supercane4867]

I’m going to go bold and predict that Delta peaks around 905 mbar by tomorrow night. Based on how poorly my previous predictions went, either this estimate is too much, or it could be too high.

That’s too low, not even Wilma went that low in 24 hours. That’s a 3mb drop per hour starting now.

Well, Wilma went from 982mb to 892mb in exactly 24hrs according to best track in TCR.

[Aric Dunn]

[aspen]

I’m going to go bold and predict that Delta peaks around 905 mbar by tomorrow night. Based on how poorly my previous predictions went, either this estimate is too much, or it could be too high.

That’s too low, not even Wilma went that low in 24 hours. That’s a 3mb drop per hour starting now.

I’ll revise it to sub-920 mbar in 24 hours. Odds are this’ll be sub-960 mbar in 12 hours.

[supercane4867]

Something scary is probably happening underneath the newly completed CDO

[PandaCitrus]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

A Greek letter retirement candidate was bound to happen at some point, so I think it's good that this is going to make them question how the whole naming system works.

They could also retire the storm as Delta2020....and keep Delta for future storms and add the year if they need to be retired.

[aspen]

Recon is descending down to operational altitude. We should have a center pass within 30-45 minutes.

[ConvergenceZone]

Technically, they can't be retired but I could see this storm leading to the WMO to abandon Greek letters which would be a shame.

A Greek letter retirement candidate was bound to happen at some point, so I think it's good that this is going to make them question how the whole naming system works.

They could also retire the storm as Delta2020....and keep Delta for future storms and add the year if they need to be retired.

Have they retired systems before due to the significant impact they had in Mexico, because I think that's what we are talking about right? Due to the potential significant impact in Mexico?
I'm sure there have been systems retired that have hit Mexico, but I I just can't remember which one/s

[DestinHurricane]

A Greek letter retirement candidate was bound to happen at some point, so I think it's good that this is going to make them question how the whole naming system works.

They could also retire the storm as Delta2020....and keep Delta for future storms and add the year if they need to be retired.

Have they retired systems before due to the significant impact they had in Mexico, because I think that's what we are talking about right? Due to the potential significant impact in Mexico?
I'm sure there have been systems retired that have hit Mexico, but I I just can't remember which one/s

Mexico and the United States